Should I Buy SPH? SPH 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy Suburban Propane Partners LP (SPH) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Hold

Latest Price

20.170

1 Day change

-1.18%

52 Week Range

22.240

Analysis Updated At

2026/01/30

Not a good buy right now. SPH is in a bearish trend (SMA_200 > SMA_20 > SMA_5, MACD histogram negative and expanding), with no proprietary buy signals today and no supportive news catalysts. Despite hedge fund buying, insider selling is elevated and near-term pattern stats skew slightly negative (notably the next-month expectation). For an impatient buyer, the setup does not justify entering here ahead of the 2026-02-05 pre-market earnings event.

Technical Analysis

Trend is bearish: moving averages are stacked negatively (SMA_200 > SMA_20 > SMA_5), indicating sustained downside momentum. MACD histogram (-0.0123) is below zero and negatively expanding, consistent with a weakening tape rather than a reversal. RSI_6 at 38.41 is approaching oversold but still not signaling a strong bounce; it can remain weak in downtrends. Price action: SPH is down -2.01% today to 20.16 (market down modestly), showing relative weakness. Key levels provided: Pivot 18.531, R1 18.703, R2 18.809, S1 18.359, S2 18.253. With price currently above these listed levels, the more actionable read is that the broader trend indicators (MAs/MACD) dominate and suggest downside risk persists until momentum improves. **Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals** - [AI Stock Picker](module://ai_stock_pick): No signal on given stock today. - [SwingMax](module://swingmax): No signal on given stock recently.

Options Data

Bullish

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bullish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Options sentiment is mildly constructive on positioning (OI put-call ratio 0.87 implies slightly more call open interest than puts), but near-term uncertainty is elevated: 30D IV is very high (67.5) versus historical volatility (21.41), suggesting options are pricing a large move (likely earnings-related) and/or demand for protection. IV percentile (21.2) and IV rank (36.55) are not extreme versus the past year, but the absolute IV level is still high. Notably, today’s options activity is very put-skewed by prints (put volume 11 vs call volume 0) while overall option volume vs 30-day average is elevated (20.75), implying traders are actively positioning—more hedging/defensive than outright bullish.

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

- Hedge funds are buying aggressively (buying amount +390.40% over the last quarter), which can provide underlying support.
- Gross margin improved materially in the latest reported quarter (2025/Q4 gross margin 55.89, +9.46% YoY).
- Upcoming earnings (2026-02-05 pre-market) can act as a catalyst if results/guide surprise positively.

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

- Clear bearish technical setup (negative MA stack, MACD weakening) and today’s decline (-2.01%) indicates ongoing downside pressure.
- Insiders are selling more (selling amount +222.03% over the last month), which is a negative near-term sentiment signal.
- Latest quarter profitability was weak: 2025/Q4 net income -35.136M (down 21.20% YoY) and EPS -0.54 (down 21.74% YoY).
- No recent news flow to change the narrative; absent catalysts, trends tend to persist.
- Pattern-based projection is unfavorable over the next month (50% chance of -3.65%).

Financial Performance

Latest reported quarter: 2025/Q4. Revenue rose to 211.376M (+1.31% YoY), but profitability deteriorated: net income fell to -35.136M (-21.20% YoY) and EPS to -0.54 (-21.74% YoY). The bright spot was gross margin expansion to 55.89 (+9.46% YoY), but the overall earnings picture still shows weaker bottom-line performance versus last year.

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

No analyst rating or price target change data was provided in the dataset, so a recent Wall Street trend cannot be confirmed here. Based on the available facts only, the main 'pro' case would be hedge-fund accumulation and improved gross margin; the main 'con' case is the clearly bearish technical trend plus weakening YoY earnings and elevated insider selling. Politician/congress activity: no recent congress trading data available.

1 Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast SPH stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for SPH is 17 USD with a low forecast of 17 USD and a high forecast of 17 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

0 Buy

0 Hold

1 Sell

Moderate Sell

Current: 20.410

Low

Averages

High