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01/10 16:34
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Access earnings results, analyst expectations, report, slides, earnings call, and transcript.
The earnings call summary and Q&A reflect a positive outlook with raised guidance, sustainable margins, and strategic market expansions. Despite the exit from the U.S. market, the company is making significant investments in technology and new product launches, which are expected to drive growth. The raised EBITDA guidance and strong market-specific strategies, such as in Africa and Spain, further support a positive sentiment. The market cap suggests a moderate reaction, leading to a 'Positive' prediction of 2% to 8% stock price increase.
Total Revenue $557 million, up 26% year-over-year. Growth driven by strong sports outcomes in July and August, increased uptake of parlays, and favorable wagering activity.
Group Adjusted EBITDA $152 million, representing 65% year-over-year growth with a robust margin of approximately 27%. Margin improvement due to disciplined reinvestment, efficiency gains, and expanded use of AI.
Sports Betting Wagers $901 million for the quarter, up 12% year-over-year. Growth supported by favorable wagering activity.
Casino Wagers Up 20% year-over-year. Growth supported by favorable wagering activity.
Sportsbook Margins Improved from 11% in Q3 2024 to 12.8% in Q3 2025. Improvement due to increased uptake of parlays and strong sports outcomes.
Cash on Balance Sheet $462 million at the end of the quarter. Reflects strong free cash flow generation.
Shareholder Returns $136 million returned over the last 12 months, including $20 million in the past quarter. Demonstrates robust free cash flow generation and capital allocation strategies.
Super Coin launch: Super Group announced the upcoming Q4 launch of Super Coin, a South African rand-pegged digital asset stablecoin. This initiative aims to enhance payments, rewards, and engagement. A digital asset wallet is also planned for Q1 2026 to support Super Coin usage.
Europe revenue growth: Europe's revenue surged 46% year-over-year, with the U.K. and Spain leading at 71% and 11% growth, respectively. Germany faced challenges due to tighter regulations and reduced marketing spend.
Africa revenue growth: Africa delivered 36% year-over-year growth, with Botswana showing strong momentum, and South Africa growing 23%. Nigeria completed a technology platform migration, improving scalability.
North America and APAC performance: North America grew 14% year-over-year, with Canada ex Ontario up 15%. APAC revenue increased 3%, recovering from a prior 6% decline, though New Zealand faced a 2% drop due to marketing restrictions.
Operational efficiency: Group adjusted EBITDA grew 65% year-over-year to $152 million, with a margin of 27%. AI was increasingly used in customer support and trading, improving cost efficiency.
Marketing efficiency: Improved marketing ratio while achieving record customer engagement and wagering growth. Sports betting wagers rose 12% to $901 million, and casino wagers increased 20% year-over-year.
Revenue and EBITDA guidance increase: Full-year 2025 group revenue guidance was raised to $2.17-$2.27 billion, and adjusted EBITDA guidance to $555-$565 million, reflecting strong customer growth and revenue diversification.
Regulatory Restrictions in Germany: Germany's tighter regulatory restrictions have negatively impacted operations, leading to reduced marketing spend to preserve unit economics.
Casino Tax Headwinds in Zambia: The company is facing challenges due to casino tax headwinds in Zambia, requiring proactive navigation to mitigate impact.
Marketing Restrictions in New Zealand: Continued marketing restrictions in New Zealand have led to a 2% revenue decline in the region.
Unfavorable Sports Outcomes: Unfavorable sports results in September and partially in October have impacted financial performance.
Dependence on Regulatory Frameworks for Super Coin Expansion: The expansion of the Super Coin initiative is contingent on local regulatory frameworks, which could pose challenges to its broader adoption.
Full Year 2025 Revenue Guidance: The company has raised its full-year 2025 group revenue guidance to be between $2.17 billion and $2.27 billion, reflecting robust growth in monthly active customers, diversification in revenue mix, and a strong start to Q4.
Full Year 2025 Adjusted EBITDA Guidance: The company has increased its full-year 2025 group adjusted EBITDA guidance to between $555 million and $565 million, supported by disciplined reinvestment, efficiency gains, and a sharper ROI.
Super Coin Launch: The company plans to launch the ZAR Super Coin, a South African rand-pegged stablecoin, in late November 2025. This initiative aims to deepen customer loyalty, reward engagement, and enable cross-platform benefits. A digital asset wallet for Super Coin is expected to launch in Q1 2026, starting in South Africa, with plans for future expansion.
New Casino Client in Ontario: The company plans to launch a new casino client in Ontario in the first half of 2026, aiming to enhance its market presence and customer experience in the region.
Operational Efficiency and AI Integration: The company is increasing operational efficiency through expanded use of AI across customer support and trading, contributing to margin improvement and cost discipline.
Dividends Paid: $20 million paid out in the past quarter
Total Shareholder Returns: $136 million returned to shareholders over the last 12 months
The earnings call summary and Q&A reflect a positive outlook with raised guidance, sustainable margins, and strategic market expansions. Despite the exit from the U.S. market, the company is making significant investments in technology and new product launches, which are expected to drive growth. The raised EBITDA guidance and strong market-specific strategies, such as in Africa and Spain, further support a positive sentiment. The market cap suggests a moderate reaction, leading to a 'Positive' prediction of 2% to 8% stock price increase.
The earnings call reveals strong financial performance with a 15% YoY revenue increase and a robust balance sheet with $393 million in cash and no debt. Management's strategic exit from the U.S. market is aimed at reallocating resources to more profitable regions, with expected cost savings. The company's marketing strategy and product innovations are driving growth. Despite concerns about lower H2 guidance, management attributes this to a disciplined forecasting approach. The market cap suggests moderate volatility, and overall, the positive financial health and strategic focus are likely to result in a 2% to 8% stock price increase.
The earnings call indicates strong financial performance with a 25% revenue increase and a 120% rise in adjusted EBITDA. The company is maintaining revenue guidance above $2 billion, and has increased dividends, signaling confidence. Despite some regulatory and competitive challenges, optimistic guidance and strategic expansion plans, including the U.S. iGaming market and potential Canadian market entry, contribute to a positive sentiment. The market cap suggests moderate sensitivity, leading to a predicted positive stock price movement of 2% to 8% over the next two weeks.
The earnings call presents strong financial performance with significant revenue and EBITDA growth, especially ex-US. Positive sentiment is reinforced by increased dividends and optimistic guidance. However, regulatory and competitive risks, along with unclear responses on acquisitions and tax impacts, temper enthusiasm. Overall, the positive aspects, including a special cash dividend and strong growth figures, outweigh the negatives, suggesting a moderate stock price increase.
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