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01/11 11:26
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Access earnings results, analyst expectations, report, slides, earnings call, and transcript.
The earnings call summary shows a mixed but generally positive outlook: strong ROE, portfolio performance, and cash position, despite some declines in NII and yields. The Q&A suggests optimism about M&A activity and capital deployment, though management was vague on some risks. The dividend guidance and pipeline strength are positive indicators. Given these factors, and assuming a moderate market cap, a positive stock price movement of 2% to 8% is likely in the next two weeks.
Net Asset Value (NAV) $413 million, up 10.2% from $375 million last year and up 0.7% from $410.5 million last quarter. The increase is attributed to strong portfolio performance and realized gains.
NAV per share $25.59, down from $26.95 last year and $25.61 last quarter. The decline is due to dilution from ATM and DRIP programs and under-earning of the dividend.
Adjusted Net Investment Income (NII) $9.8 million, down 21.3% from last year and up 7.8% from last quarter. The year-over-year decrease is due to lower AUM and base interest rates, while the quarter-over-quarter increase is due to net interest margin changes.
Adjusted NII per share $0.61, down 32.2% from last year and up 5.2% from last quarter. The year-over-year decrease reflects lower AUM and base interest rates, while the quarter-over-quarter increase is due to net interest margin changes.
Adjusted NII yield 9.5%, down from 13.3% last year and up from 9% last quarter. The year-over-year decrease reflects lower base interest rates and tighter spreads, while the quarter-over-quarter increase is due to improved net interest margin.
Return on Equity (ROE) 9.7%, up from 9.2% last year and 9.1% last quarter. The increase is attributed to strong portfolio performance and realized gains.
Net Originations $17.2 million, driven by $72.1 million in new investments and 9 follow-ons, offset by repayments. The increase reflects strong business development efforts and M&A activity.
Cash Position $169.6 million, decreased due to repayment of a $12 million baby bond. The company still has significant cash available for investments or debt repayment.
Portfolio Fair Value $1.016 billion, with a 1.7% increase above cost. The core non-CLO portfolio is 2.1% above cost, reflecting strong underwriting and portfolio performance.
Net Interest Margin Increased from $13.1 million last quarter to $13.5 million, driven by a $0.5 million decrease in interest expense and accelerated OID on repayments.
Core BDC Portfolio Yield 10.6%, down from 11.3% last quarter and 11.8% last year. The decrease is due to SOFR rate reductions and tighter spreads on new originations.
Nonaccrual Rate 0.4% of cost, significantly lower than the industry average of 3.2%. This reflects the high credit quality of the portfolio.
New Portfolio Companies: Net originations of $17.2 million, including 3 new portfolio companies and 9 follow-ons. Additionally, 4 new portfolio company investments are either closed or closing in Q4.
Structured Credit Securities: Closed on new investments in multiple BB and BBB structured credit securities.
M&A Activity: Increase in M&A activity despite competitive market dynamics. 5 of the 7 most recent new platform companies closed or in process are with new relationships.
Lower Middle Market Focus: Continued focus on the lower middle market, which offers better risk-adjusted returns due to robust due diligence, conservative capital structures, and stronger legal protections.
Net Asset Value (NAV): Quarter-end NAV was $413 million, up 10.2% from last year and 0.7% from last quarter. NAV per share was $25.59.
Adjusted Net Investment Income (NII): Adjusted NII was $9.8 million, down 21.3% from last year but up 7.8% from last quarter. Adjusted NII per share was $0.61.
Portfolio Quality: 99.8% of credits rated in the highest category, with only one investment on nonaccrual status (Pepper Palace).
Leverage and Liquidity: Maintained $396 million of investment capacity, including $169.6 million in cash and $136 million available through SBIC III license.
Dividend Strategy: Announced a monthly base dividend of $0.25 per share, representing a 12.9% yield annualized. Continued strong dividend distribution history.
Business Development: Increased business development efforts, leading to new relationships and improved deal flow.
Decreasing short-term interest rates and spreads: The company's net investment income (NII) continues to reflect the impact of decreasing levels of short-term interest rates and spreads on its largely floating rate assets, which could adversely affect income generation.
High levels of repayments: Continued high levels of repayments in the portfolio could reduce income and impact the company's ability to maintain or grow its asset base.
Volatile macro environment: The company operates in a volatile macroeconomic environment, which poses challenges for new commitments and could impact portfolio performance.
Competitive market dynamics: The competitive market dynamics, including tight spreads and full leverage, make it challenging to find quality new platform investments and could pressure returns.
Decreasing yields on core portfolio: The absolute yields of the core non-CLO BDC portfolio have reduced, which could impact overall profitability.
Dilution from share issuance: The issuance of additional shares through the ATM program has resulted in a $0.01 per share dilution to NII per share, which could affect shareholder returns.
Geopolitical tensions: Ongoing geopolitical tensions add uncertainty to the broader underwriting, M&A, and macro environment, potentially impacting investment opportunities and portfolio performance.
Repayment of well-performing investments: The repayment of certain well-performing investments has reduced the company's assets under management (AUM) and base interest rates, impacting income.
Upcoming debt maturities: The company has $175 million in notes maturing in February 2026, requiring optimal liquidity management and refinancing strategies.
Idiosyncratic risks in private credit market: Broader sentiment towards the private credit market has become cautious due to high-profile bankruptcies, which could indirectly affect the company's operations and investor confidence.
Future M&A Activity: The company anticipates a pickup in M&A activity, supported by increased business development efforts and renewed momentum in the market. They are focusing on expanding deal sourcing relationships and leveraging their strong reputation to secure high-quality investments.
Portfolio Growth and Deployment: Saratoga expects to achieve healthy portfolio growth through disciplined asset selection and expanded business development initiatives. They plan to deploy significant available capital into strong credit opportunities that meet high underwriting standards.
Capital Deployment and Liquidity: The company has $396 million of investment capacity, including $136 million from the SBIC III license, $90 million from revolving credit facilities, and $169.6 million in cash. This liquidity is expected to support portfolio growth and provide flexibility in navigating economic conditions.
Dividend Guidance: The company declared a $0.75 per share dividend for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2026, maintaining the same level as the previous quarter. The Board will continue to evaluate dividend levels quarterly, considering economic factors and earnings.
Interest Rate and Yield Expectations: The weighted average interest rate on the core BDC portfolio decreased to 10.6% this quarter, reflecting lower SOFR base rates and tighter spreads on new originations. The company is prepared to refinance callable debt to protect net interest margins in a potentially decreasing interest rate environment.
Market Positioning and Strategy: Saratoga remains focused on the lower middle market, emphasizing conservative capital structures, robust due diligence, and active portfolio management. They believe this segment offers the best risk-adjusted returns and plan to continue leveraging their strong market presence.
Operational and Financial Resilience: The company is confident in its ability to navigate economic uncertainty, supported by a strong balance sheet, disciplined underwriting, and a robust pipeline. They aim to responsibly grow the portfolio size and quality while delivering consistent investment performance.
Dividend Distribution: Saratoga Investment Corp announced a monthly base dividend of $0.25 per share, totaling $0.75 per share for the fourth quarter of fiscal 2026. This represents a 12.9% yield based on the stock price of $23.19 as of January 6, 2026. The company also distributed a $0.25 per share special dividend in December.
Dividend Evaluation: The Board of Directors will continue to evaluate the dividend level quarterly, considering company and economic factors, including interest rates and macroeconomic conditions.
The earnings call summary shows a mixed but generally positive outlook: strong ROE, portfolio performance, and cash position, despite some declines in NII and yields. The Q&A suggests optimism about M&A activity and capital deployment, though management was vague on some risks. The dividend guidance and pipeline strength are positive indicators. Given these factors, and assuming a moderate market cap, a positive stock price movement of 2% to 8% is likely in the next two weeks.
The company has a strong dividend plan with an 11.8% yield, significant cash reserves, and prudent capital deployment strategies. They are expanding business development to increase deal flow and maintain disciplined asset selection. Portfolio growth is supported by strong underwriting standards. Investment in CLO debt securities offers enhanced yields. Management is confident in navigating economic challenges and maintaining dividends. The Q&A revealed positive sentiment with management addressing concerns about competition, CLO investments, and dividend sustainability. Overall, the company's strategic initiatives and financial health suggest a positive outlook for stock price movement.
The earnings call presents mixed signals: financial performance shows both positive (NAV growth, increased ROE) and negative aspects (decline in NII per share). The Q&A highlights cautious optimism but lacks clarity on future growth and M&A activity. The dividend increase is a positive, but unclear management responses and unpredictable market conditions suggest limited short-term stock movement. Overall, the sentiment is neutral, with no strong catalysts for significant price change.
The earnings call summary reveals mixed signals: while NAV and cash available have increased, adjusted NII and NAV per share have declined significantly. The Q&A session highlights management's inability to provide specifics on pipeline strength and their cautious approach to debt management. The decline in ROE and adjusted NII, coupled with management's vague responses, suggest a lack of confidence in short-term growth. Despite a strong total return, the overall sentiment leans negative, as the market may react unfavorably to declining financial metrics and unclear future guidance.
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