Should I Buy RFL? RFL 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy Rafael Holdings Inc (RFL) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Hold

Latest Price

1.160

1 Day change

-1.69%

52 Week Range

3.190

Analysis Updated At

2026/01/30

RFL is not a good buy right now for an impatient investor. The trend remains bearish (stacked bearish moving averages and negative MACD), there are no Intellectia buy signals today, options show extreme implied volatility with thin volume (more uncertainty than conviction), and there are no fresh news catalysts. If you want immediate upside follow-through, the setup is weak; I would avoid buying at $1.21 until price proves strength above ~$1.26–$1.30.

Technical Analysis

Price/Trend: Bearish. Moving averages are stacked bearishly (SMA_200 > SMA_20 > SMA_5), implying a sustained downtrend. Momentum: MACD histogram is negative (-0.00238) and still below zero (bearish), though contracting slightly (selling pressure easing, but not reversed). RSI: RSI_6 ~44.9 (neutral-to-soft), not showing an oversold bounce signal. Key levels: Pivot ~$1.21 (current). Near-term support S1 ~$1.155 then S2 ~$1.122; resistance R1 ~$1.264 and R2 ~$1.297. A decisive reclaim/hold above ~$1.26–$1.30 would be the first technical improvement; losing ~$1.155 increases downside risk. Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals: - [AI Stock Picker](module://ai_stock_pick): No signal on given stock today. - [SwingMax](module://swingmax): No signal on given stock recently. Pattern-based forward odds (provided): modestly positive skew beyond 1 week (next week +2.23%, next month +8.51%), but not supported by current trend signals.

Options Data

Bullish

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bullish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Options positioning: Put/Call open interest ratio is extremely low (~0.01) with calls dominating (call OI 1343 vs put OI 14), suggesting bullish/speculative skew. But liquidity/conviction today is minimal (total volume 1; put volume 0), so the skew is not a strong real-time sentiment confirmation. Volatility: 30D IV ~500 with IV percentile ~92.4 indicates the market is pricing very large moves/uncertainty; this typically aligns with event-risk or distressed microcap dynamics rather than a clean directional edge.

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

revenue grew strongly (+87.5% YoY to $240k) and gross margin improved materially (75.42%), indicating some operational improvement.

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Extremely elevated implied volatility (IV ~
signals high uncertainty; with near-zero trading volume, options signals are less reliable.

Financial Performance

2026/Q1: Revenue rose to $240k (+87.5% YoY), showing top-line improvement off a small base. Gross margin increased to 75.42 (large YoY change), which is a positive quality-of-revenue signal. However, the company remains loss-making: net income about -$9.816M (still negative) and EPS fell to -0.19 (down ~48.65% YoY), indicating that improved revenue/margins have not translated into reduced losses yet.

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

No analyst rating trend or price target change data was provided, so a Wall Street pros/cons consensus view cannot be confirmed from the dataset. From the available fundamentals/technicals alone: pros are improving revenue/margins; cons are persistent large losses, weak price trend, and lack of near-term catalysts.

Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast RFL stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for RFL is 0 USD with a low forecast of 0 USD and a high forecast of 0 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

Buy