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The earnings call presents a mixed outlook. Positive factors include expected growth in net interest margin, loan growth, and deposit balances, along with a focus on tech modernization and capital allocation. However, concerns arise from stable loan growth in 2025, elevated charge-offs, and management's unclear responses on certain issues. The Q&A section highlights improvements in credit quality and a focus on managing expenses. Overall, the mixed signals result in a neutral sentiment, suggesting minor stock price fluctuations over the next two weeks.
Full Year Earnings $2.1 billion, resulting in earnings per share of $2.30 or $2.33 on an adjusted basis. Reasons for change: Strong execution against strategic priorities and momentum heading into 2026.
Return on Tangible Common Equity Just over 18%. Reasons for change: Strong financial performance and strategic execution.
Fourth Quarter Earnings $514 million, resulting in earnings per share of $0.58 and $0.57 on an adjusted basis. Reasons for change: Negatively impacted by $0.04 due to incremental tax expense, severance, pension settlement, and Visa Class B litigation escrow funding.
Adjusted Noninterest Income Increased by 5% in 2025. Reasons for change: Record fee income in wealth management and corporate bank businesses, record treasury management products and services, and strong capital markets performance.
Loan Growth Challenged in 2025 with over $2 billion in strategic runoff. Reasons for change: Large corporate customers refinancing in capital markets, portfolio management, and focus on risk-adjusted returns.
Net Interest Income Grew by 2% linked quarter. Reasons for change: Fixed asset turnover, prudent funding cost management, and benefits from seasonal HR-related asset dividends and credit-related interest recoveries.
Deposits Ending balances up approximately $800 million. Reasons for change: Strong customer acquisition and retention, reduced total deposit costs, and mix shift from CDs to money market accounts.
Adjusted Noninterest Expense Increased by 2% in 2025. Reasons for change: Higher health insurance costs, revenue-based incentives, and technology investments for core modernization.
Annualized Net Charge-Offs Increased 4 basis points to 59 basis points. Reasons for change: Progress on resolutions within previously identified portfolios of interest.
Allowance for Credit Losses Decreased by $27 million. Reasons for change: Improvement in Business Services criticized loans and nonperforming loans, and continued resolutions in stressed portfolios.
Common Equity Tier 1 Ratio Estimated at 10.8%. Reasons for change: Share repurchases, dividend payments, and stable liquidity.
New native mobile app: Launched a new native mobile app with a 4.9 out of 5-star rating in the App Store.
Priority markets: Investments in priority markets accounted for over 40% of new corporate client growth during 2025.
Core system modernization: Made meaningful progress on a multiyear effort to modernize core systems, aiming to strengthen competitive position.
Technology investments: Invested in authentication, data governance, data management, and real-time data to enhance security, customer experience, and expand AI usage.
Loan growth and portfolio management: Loan growth was challenged due to corporate refinancing and strategic runoff, but net interest income benefited from prudent funding cost management.
Adjusted noninterest income: Grew by 5% in 2025, with record fee income in wealth management and corporate banking.
Expense management: Produced 140 basis points of adjusted positive operating leverage and increased tangible book value per share by 20%.
Leadership transition: Transitioned CFO role from David Turner to Anil Chadha, aiming to align with near-term goals and long-term priorities.
Capital and shareholder returns: Returned $2 billion to shareholders through dividends and share buybacks while maintaining a strong capital position.
Loan Growth Challenges: Loan growth was challenged in 2025 due to large corporate customers refinancing in capital markets and strategic runoff from leveraged lending portfolios.
Capital Markets Revenue Decline: Capital markets revenue declined due to postponed M&A transactions, seasonality in loan syndication, and temporary government shutdown impacts.
Technology Investment Costs: Increased technology costs due to core modernization and migration to Software-as-a-Service solutions, which may pressure short-term expenses.
Net Charge-Offs Increase: Annualized net charge-offs increased to 59 basis points, reflecting stress in certain portfolios.
Asset Repricing Exposure: Asset repricing is exposed to middle and long-term rate fluctuations, which could impact net interest income.
Incremental Tax and Legal Expenses: $26 million in incremental tax expense and $14 million in severance, pension settlement, and litigation-related costs negatively impacted earnings.
Effective Tax Rate: For the full year 2026, the effective tax rate is expected to return to the 20.5% to 21.5% range.
Loan Growth: Loan growth is expected to return to more normal levels in 2026, with average loans projected to increase by low single digits compared to 2025.
Deposit Growth: Average deposits are expected to grow by low single digits in 2026 compared to the prior year.
Net Interest Income: Net interest income is projected to grow between 2.5% and 4% in 2026. The net interest margin is expected to be around 3.7% in the first quarter, with a low to mid-370s range by the fourth quarter.
Capital Markets Revenue: Capital markets quarterly revenue is expected to range from $90 million to $105 million in 2026, starting near the lower end of the range early in the year and increasing as the year progresses.
Adjusted Noninterest Income: Adjusted noninterest income is expected to grow between 3% and 5% in 2026 compared to 2025.
Adjusted Noninterest Expense: Adjusted noninterest expense is expected to increase between 1.5% and 3.5% in 2026, with full-year adjusted positive operating leverage anticipated.
Net Charge-Offs: Full-year 2026 net charge-offs are expected to range between 40 and 50 basis points, with the potential to operate towards the lower to middle part of that range if macroeconomic conditions improve.
Technology Investments: Technology spending is expected to increase to 10% to 12% of revenue, up from the historical range of 9% to 11%, as the company continues its core modernization and migration to Software-as-a-Service solutions.
Dividends paid in Q4 2025: $231 million
Total dividends paid in 2025: Part of the $2 billion returned to shareholders through dividends and share buybacks
Dividend growth strategy: Commitment to increasing the dividend commensurate with earnings
Share repurchases in Q4 2025: $430 million
Total share repurchases in 2025: Part of the $2 billion returned to shareholders through dividends and share buybacks
Share buyback strategy: Commitment to repurchasing shares commensurate with earnings and maintaining flexibility for regulatory changes
The earnings call presents a mixed outlook. Positive factors include expected growth in net interest margin, loan growth, and deposit balances, along with a focus on tech modernization and capital allocation. However, concerns arise from stable loan growth in 2025, elevated charge-offs, and management's unclear responses on certain issues. The Q&A section highlights improvements in credit quality and a focus on managing expenses. Overall, the mixed signals result in a neutral sentiment, suggesting minor stock price fluctuations over the next two weeks.
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