Should You Buy Redwire Corp (RDW) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.
Conclusion
Buy
Latest Price
11.630
1 Day change
-9.21%
52 Week Range
26.660
Analysis Updated At
2026/01/30
Buy RDW now. Despite today’s sharp -8.59% regular-session drop to $11.74, the broader technical structure remains bullish (stacked moving averages), options positioning is distinctly risk-on (low put/call), and news/analyst flow is being driven by a meaningful Golden Dome missile-defense catalyst. For an impatient buyer, the current pullback below the ~$12 pivot offers a reasonable entry with clear nearby levels to watch ($10.12 support, then $8.93).
Technical Analysis
Trend/structure: Bullish. The moving averages are positively stacked (SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200), which typically signals an established uptrend despite today’s selloff.
Momentum: Neutral-to-slightly positive. RSI(6) ~52.8 is neutral (not overbought), and MACD histogram is above zero (0.0718) but contracting—suggesting upside momentum is still present but cooling near-term.
Key levels: Price ($11.74) is below the pivot (12.041), implying near-term overhead supply. Immediate support is S1 10.116 (key “line in the sand” for bulls). If that breaks, next support is S2 8.926. Upside resistance is R1 13.966 then R2 15.156.
Interpretation: The bigger-picture uptrend is intact, but the stock is in a short-term pullback/volatility pocket. The best technical “reason to buy now” is the bullish MA stack + neutral RSI (room to run) combined with a pullback toward support.
**Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals**
- [AI Stock Picker](module://ai_stock_pick): No signal on given stock today.
- [SwingMax](module://swingmax): No signal on given stock today.
Options Data
Bullish
Open Interest Put-Call Ratio
Bullish
Option Volume Put-Call Ratio
Sentiment: Bullish. Both open-interest and volume put/call ratios are low (0.43 OI, 0.25 volume), implying calls dominate positioning/flow.
Positioning/flow detail: Call OI (154,657) materially exceeds put OI (65,870). Today’s option volume (6,812) is below the 30-day average (today vs avg ~56%), so the bullish skew is more about existing positioning than a big new surge today.
Volatility: HV ~93.6 is extremely high, while 30D IV ~84 with IV percentile ~18 (low relative to its own history). That combination implies options are not especially “expensive” versus where RDW IV often trades, while the underlying remains very volatile—typically consistent with speculative upside interest rather than heavy hedging pressure.
Technical Summary
Sell
4
Buy
7
Positive Catalysts
Golden Dome missile-defense program exposure: Multiple items point to RDW benefiting from the Trump administration’s Golden Dome plan; Roth explicitly cited inclusion and raised PT, and news highlights a large missile-defense contract headline (event-driven tailwind).
Defense/space thematic bid: News notes defense names surging on expected gains from Golden Dome; RDW is directly in that narrative.
Strategic positioning via M&A: Edge Autonomy acquisition expands drone capabilities and multi-domain defense/space positioning, supporting a larger total addressable market.
Pattern-based forward probabilities provided: Model indicates a favorable skew (reported 18.08% next week and 31.33% next month probability outcomes from similar candlestick patterns).
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
Execution/guidance overhang from 2025: Prior Q3 miss and guidance reductions were key drivers of earlier target cuts; those concerns can reassert on any delivery delays or bookings softness.
Profitability/margins: Gross margin fell to 16.25% (down ~7.25 YoY), and the company remains loss-making, which can cap rerating if revenue growth doesn’t translate into operating leverage.
Dilution concern: KeyBanc highlighted expanded scale comes at the cost of shareholder dilution (a persistent valuation/sentiment headwind).
High realized volatility: Price can swing sharply (today’s -8.6% is consistent with the name’s high-vol profile), which can shake out weak hands even in an uptrend.
Influential buyers/sellers: No recent congress trading data available; hedge funds and insiders are reported as neutral with no significant recent trends.
Financial Performance
Latest quarter: 2025/Q3.
Growth: Revenue rose to $103.432M (+50.69% YoY), a strong top-line acceleration.
Earnings quality: Net income improved (loss narrowed) to -$42.826M (up 75.93% YoY improvement), but EPS declined to -$0.29 (down -21.62% YoY), indicating per-share profitability is still pressured (likely impacted by share count/dilution and/or below-the-line items).
Margins: Gross margin dropped to 16.25% (down 7.25 YoY), signaling weaker unit economics/contract mix and making the path to sustainable profitability a key watch item.
Bottom line: Strong revenue growth, improving headline net loss, but deteriorating gross margin and still-negative EPS—high-growth, still-in-transition financial profile.
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Recent trend: Net-positive into late January, with notable upward price target revisions tied to defense catalysts, after widespread cuts in Nov–Dec following execution/guidance issues.
Upgrades/raises: Roth raised PT to $20 from $15 (Buy) on 2026-01-28; Truist raised PT to $13 from $8 (Hold) on 2026-01-09; H.C. Wainwright reiterated Buy with $22 PT (2025-12-23) citing upside to estimates and Golden Dome opportunities.
Cuts/tempering: Multiple firms cut targets in Nov–Dec (e.g., Canaccord to $11; Alliance Global to $9; Cantor to $9 though kept Overweight), largely due to Q3 miss, weaker demand/delays, and guidance reset.
Wall Street pros vs cons:
Pros: Viewed as a key space/defense infrastructure vendor with potential upside from Golden Dome and additional defense programs; improving contract cadence and catalysts into 2026.
Cons: Execution risk, prior guidance disappointment, dilution, and profitability/margin pressure; at least one major firm remains Hold (Truist) and KeyBanc initiated at Sector Weight, reflecting “not convinced yet” skepticism despite the theme tailwinds.
Wall Street analysts forecast RDW stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for RDW is 12.5 USD with a low forecast of 6 USD and a high forecast of 22 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
9 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast RDW stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for RDW is 12.5 USD with a low forecast of 6 USD and a high forecast of 22 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
6 Buy
2 Hold
1 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 12.810
Low
6
Averages
12.5
High
22
Current: 12.810
Low
6
Averages
12.5
High
22
Roth Capital
Buy
maintain
$15 -> $20
AI Analysis
2026-01-28
New
Reason
Roth Capital
Price Target
$15 -> $20
AI Analysis
2026-01-28
New
maintain
Buy
Reason
Roth Capital raised the firm's price target on Redwire to $20 from $15 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The company has announced it has secured part of a defense contract award relating to the government's Golden Dome Program, and while no specific awards have been committed to yet, the firm is encouraged by Redwire's inclusion, stating that its portfolio position as a key space infrastructure vendor can serve it well as this major defense program evolves, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
Truist
Hold
upgrade
$8 -> $13
2026-01-09
Reason
Truist
Price Target
$8 -> $13
2026-01-09
upgrade
Hold
Reason
Truist raised the firm's price target on Redwire to $13 from $8 and keeps a Hold rating on the shares. Despite a strong 2025, the Aerospace & Defense sector remains broadly bullish for 2026, with rising aircraft production and sustained aftermarket demand supporting both OE and AM segments, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Defense may see fewer catalysts, but recapitalization, geopolitical tensions, and replenishment needs should sustain demand, making stock selection critical amid elevated valuations, particularly for SMID defense tech names, the firm adds.
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