Should I Buy PFG? PFG 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy Principal Financial Group Inc (PFG) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Hold

Latest Price

94.760

1 Day change

0.75%

52 Week Range

95.400

Analysis Updated At

2026/01/30

PFG is NOT a good buy right now at ~94.9 pre-market. The technical trend is bullish, but price is extended/near resistance with overbought short-term momentum, insiders are aggressively selling, and Wall Street’s near-term stance has drifted toward Neutral/Underweight with several price targets below the current price. With earnings (QDEC 2025) coming on 2026-02-09, the risk/reward for an impatient entry here is unfavorable versus waiting for a pullback toward support.

Technical Analysis

Trend is bullish (SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200) and MACD histogram is positive and expanding (0.303), signaling upside momentum. However, RSI_6 is elevated at 71.79 (stretched/near overbought), which often precedes consolidation. Price is trading above the pivot (91.375) and is already around/above R1 (94.555); the next upside level is R2 at 96.52. Downside levels to watch are pivot ~91.38 then S1 ~88.20. Net: uptrend intact, but entry here is late-cycle in the current move (poor immediate upside vs nearby pullback risk).

Options Data

Bullish

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bullish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Options positioning looks moderately bullish by open interest (low put/call OI ratio = 0.34 suggests more call positioning). Near-term traded volume is closer to neutral/slightly cautious (put/call volume ratio 0.81). Implied vol is not elevated (30D IV ~24.79; IV percentile ~40.4; IV rank ~5.4), suggesting the options market is not pricing a large imminent move. Overall: sentiment is not fearful, but also not screaming strong upside conviction today.

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

Technically strong uptrend with positive MACD momentum.
Pattern-based forward odds in the dataset point to a positive skew over the next month (model indicates ~8.54% next-month scenario).
Some bullish analyst commentary remains (e.g., Piper Sandler Overweight with $100 PT; JPMorgan PT $103 even after downgrade).
Life insurer macro backdrop described as generally favorable by some desks heading into 2026 (capital strength/healthy balance sheets).

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Heavy insider selling: insiders are selling and the selling amount rose ~380% over the last month (strong near-term negative signal).
Price is near resistance (around R
with RSI stretched—setup favors chop/pullback rather than a clean breakout.
Analyst stance has softened: a key recent change is JPMorgan downgrade to Neutral; multiple firms sit at Neutral/Underweight and several targets (Barclays $85, BofA $88, UBS $
are below the current ~95 level.
Earnings event risk ahead: QDEC 2025 earnings on 2026-02-09 after hours (consensus EPS est. 2.
can re-rate the stock quickly.
No supportive news flow in the last week (no fresh positive catalyst to justify chasing at resistance).

Financial Performance

Latest reported quarter: 2025/Q3. Revenue grew to ~$3.943B (+5.6% YoY), but profitability deteriorated sharply: net income fell to ~$213.8M (-197% YoY) and EPS to $0.95 (-200% YoY). This is a major negative growth trend in earnings versus sales and suggests either significant one-time impacts or margin/market pressure. Into the next catalyst window, the market will focus on whether earnings normalize in the upcoming QDEC 2025 report (2026-02-09).

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

Recent trend: ratings/targets are mixed-to-cautious with a noticeable drift toward Neutral/Underweight. Key moves include JPMorgan downgrading to Neutral (PT $103) and Barclays maintaining Underweight while raising PT to $85; UBS stayed Neutral with PT $92; BofA stayed Neutral with PT $88; Piper Sandler stayed Overweight with PT $100; Morgan Stanley remains Equal Weight/Underweight across updates with mid/high-80s to low-90s targets. Wall Street pros: benefits from a generally constructive life-insurance macro narrative and some upside targets (100–103). Cons: multiple major targets sit below the current price and several firms are not recommending aggressive buying, implying limited near-term upside at this level.

9 Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast PFG stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for PFG is 91.33 USD with a low forecast of 74 USD and a high forecast of 103 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

1 Buy

6 Hold

2 Sell

Hold

Current: 94.050

Low

Averages

91.33

High

103

Current: 94.050

Low

Averages

91.33

High

103

Barclays

Underweight

maintain

$82 -> $85

AI Analysis

2026-01-08

Reason

Barclays

Price Target

$82 -> $85

AI Analysis

2026-01-08

maintain

Underweight

Reason

Barclays raised the firm's price target on Principal Financial to $85 from $82 and keeps an Underweight rating on the shares. The firm is "cautiously optimistic" on life insurers heading into 2026, saying capital strength, cash flow, and consolidation offset headwinds like spread compression and technology spend. Barclays adjusted ratings and price targets as part of its 2026 outlook.

UBS

Michael Ward

Neutral

maintain

$88 -> $92

2026-01-08

Reason

UBS

Michael Ward

Price Target

$88 -> $92

2026-01-08

maintain

Neutral

Reason

UBS analyst Michael Ward raised the firm's price target on Principal Financial to $92 from $88 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares.

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PFG Should I Buy

PFG Should I Buy

Should You Buy Principal Financial Group Inc (PFG) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Technical Analysis

Options Data

Technical Summary

Positive Catalysts

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Financial Performance

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

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