Peoples Bancorp Inc. (PEBO) Q4 2025 Earnings Call Transcript
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Overview
The earnings call presents a mixed outlook. While there's optimism in loan growth and strategic patience in M&A, concerns exist around margin stability, fee income challenges, and deposit growth lagging behind loans. The Q&A reveals management's avoidance of specific risks, adding uncertainty. The company's market cap suggests moderate sensitivity, leading to a neutral prediction.
Key Financial Performance
Diluted Earnings Per Share (EPS) $0.89 for Q4 2025, a 7% increase compared to the linked quarter. Negatively impacted by $0.02 due to an $850,000 loss from the sale of a real estate property and another $0.02 due to a $800,000 loss from redeeming subordinated debt.
Loan Growth 6% growth in 2025 compared to 2024. Driven by increases in commercial and industrial loans ($46 million) and construction loans ($40 million). Declines in premium finance loans, leases, and residential real estate loans partially offset growth.
Fee-Based Income Improved 5% in Q4 2025 compared to the linked quarter and 6% for the full year compared to 2024. Growth attributed to higher lease income, trust and investment income, and deposit account service charges.
Efficiency Ratio Stable at 57.8% for Q4 2025, compared to 57.1% in the linked quarter. Full-year 2025 ratio was 58.7%, up from 58% in 2024. Increase due to higher lease expense and sales-based incentive compensation.
Allowance for Credit Losses 1.12% of total loans at year-end 2025, up from 1% at the prior year-end. Increase driven by net charge-offs, loan growth, and slight deterioration in economic forecasts.
Net Charge-Off Rate Annualized quarterly rate of 44 basis points in Q4 2025, up from 41 basis points in the linked quarter. Small ticket lease charge-offs contributed 31 basis points.
Nonperforming Loans Grew nearly $4 million in Q4 2025 compared to the linked quarter, driven by an increase in nonaccrual loans and loans 90-plus days past due.
Net Interest Income Flat in Q4 2025 compared to the linked quarter. Full-year 2025 net interest income improved 2% compared to 2024. Decline in net interest margin by 7 basis points for the year due to lower accretion income.
Noninterest Expense Increased 3% in 2025 compared to 2024, driven by higher salaries, employee benefits, and data processing/software expenses.
Tangible Equity to Tangible Assets Ratio Improved 26 basis points to 8.8% at year-end 2025 compared to 8.5% at September 30, 2025.
Book Value Per Share Grew to $33.78 at year-end 2025, while tangible book value per share improved to $22.77.
Deposit Balances Decreased $22 million in Q4 2025 compared to the linked quarter, driven by reductions in governmental deposits ($30 million) and retail CDs ($25 million). Partially offset by higher interest-bearing demand accounts ($24 million) and noninterest-bearing deposits ($9 million).
Regulatory Capital Ratios Common Equity Tier 1 and Tier 1 capital ratios grew by 18 basis points in Q4 2025. Tangible equity to tangible asset ratio improved to 8.8%.
Operating Highlights
Technological Capabilities: Implemented state-of-the-art software programs that integrate with each other, providing a cohesive environment for associates and automating manual processes to increase efficiencies and oversight.
Small Ticket Leasing Business: Focused on originating higher-quality credit tiers and tightening credit standards to align with business expectations. Anticipates a reduction in charge-off levels by the second half of 2026.
Commercial Loan Growth: Achieved near-record commercial loan production in Q4 2025, offsetting anticipated payoffs. Commercial real estate loans comprised 35% of total loans, with 33% owner-occupied and 67% investment real estate.
Efficiency Ratio: Reported efficiency ratio was 57.8% for Q4 2025, stable compared to the linked quarter. Full-year efficiency ratio was 58.7%, slightly higher than 2024 due to lower accretion income and higher noninterest expenses.
Loan Growth: Achieved 6% loan growth for 2025 compared to 2024, with Q4 annualized loan growth of 2%. Growth led by commercial and industrial loans ($46M) and construction loans ($40M).
Net Interest Margin: Net interest margin declined 4 basis points in Q4 2025 due to lower loan yields, partially offset by reduced funding costs. Full-year net interest margin declined 7 basis points compared to 2024.
Asset Management: Plans to manage balance sheet size to avoid crossing $10 billion in assets organically, targeting investment portfolio as a percent of assets between 18%-20%.
Leadership Transition: Announced retirement of Chief Commercial Banking Officer Doug Wyatt, with Ron Majka stepping into the role to continue and expand the commercial strategy.
Risk or Challenges
Diluted EPS Impact: The diluted EPS was negatively impacted by $0.02 due to the sale of a real estate owned property, resulting in an $850,000 loss. Additionally, the redemption of subordinated debt caused a $0.02 negative impact on diluted EPS, though it will lead to future funding cost savings.
Credit Loss Provisions: The provision for credit losses totaled $8.1 million, driven by net charge-offs, loan growth, and slight economic forecast deterioration. Net charge-offs increased to 44 basis points, with small ticket lease charge-offs contributing significantly.
Nonperforming Loans: Nonperforming loans grew by nearly $4 million due to increases in nonaccrual loans and loans 90-plus days past due. This was primarily driven by one acquired commercial and industrial relationship.
Small Ticket Leasing Business: The small ticket leasing business experienced elevated charge-offs, particularly in high-balance leases. The company has ceased originating these types of leases, but the impact will persist until the second half of 2026.
Loan Growth Challenges: Loan growth was tempered in Q4 2025 and is expected to remain subdued into early 2026 due to anticipated payoffs. Some payoffs have shifted into the first and second quarters of 2026.
Net Interest Margin Decline: Net interest margin declined by 4 basis points in Q4 2025 due to lower loan yields, which fell by 17 basis points. This was partially offset by a 10 basis point decline in funding costs.
Deposit Balances: Deposit balances decreased by $22 million in Q4 2025, driven by reductions in governmental deposits and retail CDs. This was partially offset by increases in interest-bearing demand accounts and noninterest-bearing deposits.
Regulatory Capital Ratios: While most regulatory capital ratios improved, the total risk-based capital ratio remained flat due to the redemption of subordinated debt, which qualified as Tier 2 capital.
Efficiency Ratio: The efficiency ratio increased to 57.8% in Q4 2025, up from 57.1% in the linked quarter, due to higher lease expenses and sales-based incentive compensation.
Economic Sensitivity: The company expects a 3-4 basis point decline in net interest margin for every 25 basis point Federal Reserve rate cut in 2026, indicating sensitivity to interest rate changes.
Guidance & Outlook
Net Interest Margin (NIM): Expected to be between 4% and 4.2% for the full year of 2026, assuming a 125 basis point rate cut. Each 25 basis point reduction in rates from the Federal Reserve is expected to result in a 3 to 4 basis point decline in NIM.
Fee-Based Income: Quarterly fee-based income is projected to range between $28 million and $30 million. The first quarter of 2026 is expected to be elevated due to annual performance-based insurance commissions.
Noninterest Expense: Quarterly total noninterest expense is expected to be between $72 million and $74 million for the second, third, and fourth quarters of 2026. The first quarter of 2026 will be higher due to annual expenses typically recognized during that period.
Loan Growth: Loan growth is anticipated to be between 3% and 5% compared to 2025, depending on the timing of paydowns and changes in interest rates.
Net Charge-Offs: A slight reduction in net charge-offs is expected for 2026 compared to 2025, which is anticipated to positively impact provision for credit losses, excluding changes in economic forecasts.
Asset Growth: The company does not plan to exceed $10 billion in assets organically before 2027 and will manage the balance sheet size through measures such as reducing the investment portfolio.
Shareholder Return Plan
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Key Q&A
Earnings Word Cloud
PEBO Transcript
The earnings call highlights significant challenges: a 21% drop in net sales, increased net leverage, and a strategic review that may disrupt operations. Despite some gross margin improvement, the meal-kit market remains under pressure. The Q&A reveals management's vague responses and long stabilization timeline, further dampening sentiment. Considering the company's small market cap, these factors suggest a negative stock price movement of -2% to -8% over the next two weeks.
The earnings call presents a mixed outlook. While there's optimism in loan growth and strategic patience in M&A, concerns exist around margin stability, fee income challenges, and deposit growth lagging behind loans. The Q&A reveals management's avoidance of specific risks, adding uncertainty. The company's market cap suggests moderate sensitivity, leading to a neutral prediction.
The earnings call reveals several concerning factors: a $2.7 million loss, increased criticized and classified loans, lower loan growth guidance, and unclear management responses. Although there are some positive aspects, such as the low subprime exposure in the auto portfolio, the overall sentiment is negative. The market cap of $1.04 billion suggests a stronger reaction to these developments, leading to a predicted stock price movement in the negative range of -2% to -8%.
The earnings call summary shows stable financial performance with positive guidance for 2025, including loan growth and charge-off reduction. The Q&A section reveals optimism despite external risks, with management confident in loan growth and a reduction in leasing losses. The dividend increase and stable net interest margin are positive indicators. Although there are some concerns about fee income and unclear responses, the overall sentiment is positive, especially for a small-cap stock, predicting a likely stock price increase of 2% to 8%.
PEBO Slides
PEBO Report
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