PBPB Earnings Prediction
The chart below shows how PBPB performed 10 days before and after its earnings report, based on data from the past quarters. Typically, PBPB sees a +0.62% change in stock price 10 days leading up to the earnings, and a +2.87% change 10 days following the report. On the earnings day itself, the stock moves by +0.99%. This data can give you a slight idea of what to expect for the next quarter's release.
PBPB Key Earning Data
2024/Q4
Year Over Year
Quarter Over Quarter
Total Revenue
115.12M
-4.68%
-3.82%
Gross Margin
71.59%
1.92%
0.36%
Operating Margin
4.03%
52.08%
12.26%
Net Margin
3.54%
158.39%
-87.86%
EPS
0.12
140.00%
-89.38%
No Data Available
PBPB Earnings Analysis
Potbelly Corporation Common Stock Corporation (PBPB.O) Earnings Conference Call
Positive
Franchise Revenue Surge: 1. Franchise Revenue Growth: Franchise revenue increased by 79% year-over-year to $4.4 million, driven by a 30% increase in franchised units.
Shop Profit Margin Increase: 2. Shop Profit Margin Improvement: The company achieved a 70 basis point year-over-year improvement in shop profit margins, reaching 15.3% despite a challenging sales environment.
Digital Sales Performance: 3. Digital Sales Growth: Digital sales represented over 38% of total shop sales, marking a 100 basis point increase compared to the previous year, indicating strong performance in digital channels.
New Shop Openings: 4. New Shop Openings: Potbelly opened 8 new shops in Q3, contributing to a total of 15 openings year-to-date, with expectations to open 9 to 11 additional shops in Q4.
Adjusted EBITDA Increase: 5. Adjusted EBITDA Growth: Adjusted EBITDA for the third quarter was $8.7 million, reflecting a 19% year-over-year growth, driven by improved shop level margins and disciplined G&A management.
Negative
Same-Store Sales Decline: 1. Declining Same-Store Sales: Company-operated same-store sales decreased by 1.8% in Q3 2024, primarily due to a 3.8% drop in traffic despite a 2% increase in average check.
Q4 Sales Decline Forecast: 2. Negative Q4 Sales Guidance: The company expects same-store sales growth for Q4 2024 to range from negative 2.5% to negative 0.5%, indicating continued challenges in consumer demand.
Decline in Company Shop Revenue: 3. Lower Revenue from Company-Operated Shops: Revenues for company-operated shops were $110.8 million, lower year-over-year, impacted by last year's refranchising efforts, contrasting with franchise revenue which increased by 79%.
Rising Labor Expenses: 4. Increased Labor Costs: Labor expenses rose to 29.1% of sales, a 20 basis point increase compared to the prior year, primarily due to higher employee group insurance costs.
Refranchising Activity Decline: 5. Limited Refranchising Activity: The company plans to refranchise only 1 shop in 2024 compared to 33 in 2023, indicating a significant reduction in this revenue stream and reliance on franchise unit sales.
PBPB FAQs
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PBPB Earning Call Sentiment
Potbelly Corporation (PBPB) Q3 2024 Earnings Call Transcript
PBPB.O
2.78%Positive
The earnings call presents a mixed picture: system-wide sales and franchise revenue increased, but overall revenue and same-store sales decreased. The share repurchase program is a positive signal, but management's vague guidance on unit growth and refranchising plans raises concerns. The Q&A reveals cautious optimism about future growth, but no strong catalysts were mentioned. The stock price reaction is likely to be neutral, as positive elements like improved margins and adjusted EBITDA growth are offset by uncertainties in sales trends and future expansion.