Should You Buy Blue Owl Capital Corp (OBDC) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.
Conclusion
Hold
Latest Price
12.000
1 Day change
-1.23%
52 Week Range
15.290
Analysis Updated At
2026/01/30
Not a good buy right now. OBDC is trading in a clear short-term downtrend (bearish moving averages and weakening MACD), and there are no Intellectia buy signals to override the technical weakness. While insider buying and low put/call open-interest are supportive, the price is sitting just above near-term support (~12.105). For an impatient buyer, the risk/reward is not attractive because downside to S2 (~11.921) is close and the stock has not reclaimed key resistance (pivot ~12.403 / R1 ~12.701).
Technical Analysis
Trend is bearish: SMA_200 > SMA_20 > SMA_5 confirms sustained downside pressure. MACD histogram (-0.0412) is below zero and negatively expanding, signaling momentum is still deteriorating rather than stabilizing. RSI_6 at ~32.9 is near oversold territory but not showing a confirmed reversal by itself. Price levels: immediate support S1=12.105 (price ~12.12 pre-market), then S2=11.921; resistance/pivot at 12.403, then R1=12.701. A higher-probability long entry would typically require reclaiming/holding above the pivot (12.403) and improving momentum; that is not present now.
Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals:
- [AI Stock Picker](module://ai_stock_pick): no signal on given stock today.
- [SwingMax](module://swingmax): No signal on given stock recently.
Options Data
Bullish
Open Interest Put-Call Ratio
Bearish
Option Volume Put-Call Ratio
Open interest put/call ratio at 0.4 suggests positioning/skew is relatively bullish (more call OI than put OI). However, the option volume put/call ratio at 1.36 shows today’s flow is more put-heavy (near-term hedging or cautious sentiment). Implied volatility is low (30D IV ~12.33; IV percentile ~16.8; IV rank ~3.22), suggesting the options market is not pricing in a major near-term move. Net: positioning looks constructive, but near-term trading flow is defensive.
Technical Summary
Sell
10
Buy
4
Positive Catalysts
Insider buying is surging (reported +1372% over the last month) and recent news highlights insider accumulation amid market fear—often a supportive signal for income/credit names.
Dividend/income narrative: news highlights high yields supported by cash flow and insider confidence (positive for BDC sentiment).
Pattern-based short-horizon stats show a 40% chance of a ~+1.37% next-day move and ~+1.13% next-week move (modestly supportive for a bounce attempt if support holds).
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
Technical setup is still weak (bearish MAs, MACD worsening); a break below ~12.105 could quickly test ~11.
Analysts have been cutting price targets (even while many keep Buy/Outperform), reflecting tempered upside expectations amid rate/private credit concerns.
Fundamental headwind: EPS and net income declined YoY in the latest quarter, which can pressure BDC sentiment if investors fear yield sustainability or spread compression.
Options flow today is put-heavy (volume P/C 1.36), consistent with near-term caution.
Financial Performance
Latest reported quarter: 2025/Q3. Revenue rose to $392.2M (+9.05% YoY), but profitability softened: net income fell to $128.2M (-5.30% YoY) and EPS declined to $0.25 (-28.57% YoY). This mix implies top-line growth but margin/earnings pressure (often driven by funding costs, spreads, fee variability, or portfolio marks). Next earnings: QDEC 2025 on 2026-02-18 (After Hours; EPS est. 0.35), which is the next major catalyst.
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Recent trend: price targets have been repeatedly lowered across multiple firms (BofA $15.50→$13.50; Truist $17→$16; Keefe Bruyette $14.50→$13.50; Wells Fargo $13→$12; Citizens JMP $17→$15). Ratings are still largely constructive (several Buys/Outperform) but with more cautious expectations; at least two firms are effectively neutral (Market Perform / Equal Weight). Wall Street pros: continued Buy/Outperform stance and ‘value’ framing after expectation reset. Cons: lowered targets and reduced NII assumptions reflect concerns about rates, spreads, and BDC sector underperformance. Politicians/congress: no recent congress trading data available.
Wall Street analysts forecast OBDC stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for OBDC is 14.19 USD with a low forecast of 12 USD and a high forecast of 15.5 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
9 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast OBDC stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for OBDC is 14.19 USD with a low forecast of 12 USD and a high forecast of 15.5 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
7 Buy
2 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 12.150
Low
12
Averages
14.19
High
15.5
Current: 12.150
Low
12
Averages
14.19
High
15.5
BofA
Buy
downgrade
AI Analysis
2025-11-20
Reason
BofA
Price Target
AI Analysis
2025-11-20
downgrade
Buy
Reason
BofA lowered the firm's price target on Blue Owl Capital to $13.50 from $15.50 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares following the termination of its proposed merger with an affiliated fund due to current market conditions. BofA views the announcement favorably since the potential near-term accretion of the transaction was minimal, according to the firm. BofA added that the timing of the proposed merger was not ideal as investor concerns about lower rates and private credit have caused business development companies to underperform, the firm told investors in a research note.
Truist
Buy
maintain
$17 -> $16
2025-11-11
Reason
Truist
Price Target
$17 -> $16
2025-11-11
maintain
Buy
Reason
Truist lowered the firm's price target on Blue Owl Capital to $16 from $17 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares as part of a broader research note on BDCs. The firm is updating its model to reflect the company's Q3 results and revised guidance while also cutting its FY25 net interest income per share view by 6c to $1.52 to reflect lower assumed interest and fee income, mitigated by lower incentive fee expense, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
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