Should I Buy NRGV? NRGV 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy Energy Vault Holdings Inc (NRGV) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Sell

Latest Price

4.700

1 Day change

-10.65%

52 Week Range

6.350

Analysis Updated At

2026/01/30

NRGV is not a good buy right now. The stock is trading weak into the pre-market (-4.56% to ~5.02), technical momentum is bearish, insider selling has surged, and the lone analyst update provided (Goldman) maintains a Sell rating with a $2 target—well below the current price. Options positioning looks very bullish (call-heavy), but without a catalyst/news flow and with bearish trend signals, the risk/reward for an impatient buyer is unfavorable today.

Technical Analysis

Trend/momentum is currently bearish. MACD histogram is negative (-0.098) and expanding lower, which typically confirms downside momentum. RSI(6) at ~40.8 is neutral-to-weak (not oversold), implying there may still be room to fall before a mean-reversion bounce becomes compelling. Moving averages are converging, suggesting consolidation, but the momentum tilt is down. Key levels: immediate support S1 ~5.127 is being tested (pre-market ~5.02 is already below/around that zone), with next support S2 ~4.817. Resistance starts at Pivot ~5.627, then R1 ~6.127. From a trading perspective, price is nearer support than resistance, but momentum indicators do not yet show a clean reversal signal. **Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals** - [AI Stock Picker](module://ai_stock_pick): No signal on given stock today. - [SwingMax](module://swingmax): No signal on given stock today.

Options Data

Bullish

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bullish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Options sentiment is strongly call-skewed (very low put/call ratios), suggesting traders are positioned for upside or are using calls aggressively. Today’s options volume is elevated (9026; ~272% of the 30-day average), indicating heightened near-term speculation/interest. However, implied volatility is extremely high (30D IV ~130% vs HV ~125%), so options are expensive and the market is already pricing large moves. Net takeaway: sentiment from options is bullish/greedy, but it can also signal crowded positioning rather than reliable directional edge—especially without a news catalyst.

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

Operational/financial momentum in 2025/Q3: revenue surged YoY and gross margin improved, supporting the narrative of ramping commercialization.
Management previously reiterated 2025 revenue guidance (per the cited analyst note) and expected another quarter of positive cash generation in Q4 driven by monetization of Investment Tax Credits (ITCs).
Options market positioning is strongly call-biased, which can support short-term upside if any catalyst hits.

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Pre-market weakness and bearish momentum (negative, worsening MACD) with price slipping below/into key support (~5.13).
Insider activity: insiders are selling and the selling amount increased ~6803% over the last month (strong negative signal).
Analyst stance: Goldman Sachs reiterates Sell and the $2 price target implies substantial downside versus the current ~$5+ level.
No news in the last week: lack of fresh catalysts reduces the odds of a fast, sustainable upside move that an impatient buyer would need.

Financial Performance

Latest quarter: 2025/Q3. Revenue increased to ~$33.3M (+2678.9% YoY), and gross margin improved to ~26.15% (+35.14% YoY), showing strong top-line ramp and better unit economics. However, profitability remains weak: net income was still a loss (~-$26.8M) and EPS declined to -$0.16 (down ~11.11% YoY). Overall: rapid growth and improving margins, but still loss-making and not yet translating into improving per-share earnings.

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

Recent trend (from the provided data): Goldman Sachs raised its price target to $2 from $1.50 but maintained a Sell rating (2025-11-11). Wall Street pro view from this update: Pros—revenue/EBITDA in line, cash balance guidance met, potential near-term cash generation from ITC monetization. Cons—the maintained Sell rating and very low target vs current price suggest the analyst believes the stock remains materially overvalued or risk-heavy despite improved execution.

3 Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast NRGV stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for NRGV is 3.73 USD with a low forecast of 2 USD and a high forecast of 5.19 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

2 Buy

0 Hold

1 Sell

Moderate Buy

Current: 5.260

Low

Averages

3.73

High

5.19

Current: 5.260

Low

Averages

3.73

High

5.19

Goldman Sachs

Sell

maintain

AI Analysis

2025-11-11

Reason

Goldman Sachs

Price Target

AI Analysis

2025-11-11

maintain

Sell

Reason

Goldman Sachs raised the firm's price target on Energy Vault to $2 from $1.50 and keeps a Sell rating on the shares. The company's revenue and adjusted EBITDA were relatively in line with expectations while the management reiterated its 2025 revenue guidance, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Energy Vault has also achieved its cash balance guidance in Q3 and expects another quarter of positive cash generation in Q4, driven by the monetization of $40M in Investment Tax Credits, the firm added.

Roth MKM

Justin Clare

Strong Buy

Maintains

$2.5 → $1.5

2025-03-20

Reason

Roth MKM

Justin Clare

Price Target

$2.5 → $1.5

2025-03-20

Maintains

Strong Buy

Reason

Roth MKM analyst Justin Clare lowered the firm's price target on Energy Vault to $1.50 from $2.50 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The company reported a Q4 miss and cut 2025 guidance to reflect the 40% decline in battery pricing and acceleration of the own and operate model, but while the price decline and competitive environment create risks, Energy Vault has meaningfully increased its backlog, the analyst tells investors in a research note.

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NRGV Should I Buy

NRGV Should I Buy

Should You Buy Energy Vault Holdings Inc (NRGV) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Technical Analysis

Options Data

Technical Summary

Positive Catalysts

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Financial Performance

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

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