Should You Buy Nomura Holdings Inc (NMR) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.
Conclusion
Hold
Latest Price
9.300
1 Day change
2.20%
52 Week Range
9.470
Analysis Updated At
2026/01/30
Not a good buy right now for an impatient trader. NMR is in a broader bullish trend (stacked moving averages), but it’s short-term stretched (RSI_6 ~74) while momentum is cooling (negative MACD histogram). With the stock down ~2.9% pre-market on an earnings day and management highlighting uncertainty/no clear forward guidance, the near-term risk of chop or further downside is higher than the immediate upside. I would hold off buying today and only consider entry on a cleaner bounce off support (around 8.91–8.76) or a reclaim above 9.38 with strength.
Technical Analysis
Trend: Medium/long trend remains bullish with SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200, suggesting the primary trend is up.
Momentum: MACD histogram is negative (-0.0328) and contracting, indicating weakening upside momentum / potential consolidation.
Overbought/extension: RSI_6 at 73.99 is elevated (near overbought), which often precedes pullbacks or sideways digestion.
Key levels: Pivot 9.145 is the near-term decision level. Resistance at R1 9.382 then R2 9.528. Support at S1 8.908 then S2 8.762. With pre-market at ~9.03 (below pivot), price is leaning toward testing S1 unless it quickly reclaims 9.145.
Pattern-based odds: Similar-candlestick model shows a modest bullish bias (60% chance) with +1.97% next day / +3.09% next week / +6.32% next month, but that edge is not strong enough to override the current overbought + earnings-day uncertainty setup.
Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals
- [AI Stock Picker](module://ai_stock_pick): No signal on given stock today.
- [SwingMax](module://swingmax): No signal on given stock today.
Options Data
Bullish
Open Interest Put-Call Ratio
Bullish
Option Volume Put-Call Ratio
Sentiment: Put/Call ratios are low (OI PCR 0.35; Volume PCR 0.5), which is generally bullish (more call positioning than puts).
Positioning/flow quality: Today’s option volume is extremely small (total volume 6; calls 4, puts 2), so the bullish read is directional but not highly reliable.
Volatility: 30D IV (~47.7) is well above historical volatility (~31.0) and IV percentile ~63.6, implying the market is pricing elevated event risk (consistent with earnings/news). Elevated IV also means options are expensive; sentiment is bullish but uncertainty is high.
shows declines in revenue (-5.41% YoY), net income (-5.35% YoY), and EPS (-4.55% YoY), which undermines a “must-buy now” thesis.
while MACD remains negative, increasing odds of a pullback or consolidation.
Financial Performance
Latest quarter: 2026/Q2.
Growth: Revenue declined to 7,875,730,850.85 (-5.41% YoY). Net income declined to 624,503,467.74 (-5.35% YoY). EPS declined to 0.21 (-4.55% YoY).
Profitability: Gross margin improved to 44.39 (+14.03% YoY), which is a positive offset, but overall the quarter reflects mild contraction rather than acceleration.
Takeaway: Improving margins are constructive, but the top-line and earnings declines reduce the urgency to buy immediately (especially into an event-driven pre-market drop).
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Recent change: On 2026-01-06, Goldman Sachs removed “Namura Shipbuilding” from its APAC Conviction List (as reported). Interpreting this strictly as provided, the most recent notable analyst-related update is not supportive (a step down in conviction rather than an upgrade).
Wall Street-style pros: improving margins and potentially supportive strategic initiatives (e.g., U.S. trust charter angle via Laser Digital).
Cons: soft YoY growth in the latest quarter and limited/uncertain forward visibility, which typically restrains aggressive upside calls.
Wall Street analysts forecast NMR stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for NMR is 0 USD with a low forecast of 0 USD and a high forecast of 0 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
Analyst Rating
0
Wall Street analysts forecast NMR stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for NMR is 0 USD with a low forecast of 0 USD and a high forecast of 0 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
Buy
Hold
Sell
0
Current: 9.100
Low
0
Averages
0
High
0
0
Current: 9.100
Low
0
Averages
0
High
0
Goldman Sachs
downgrade
AI Analysis
2026-01-06
Reason
Goldman Sachs
Price Target
AI Analysis
2026-01-06
downgrade
Reason
Goldman Sachs analysts removed Namura Shipbuilding from the firm's APAC Conviction List as part of its monthly update.
