NE Should I Buy
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Noble Corporation PLC (NE) is not a strong buy for a beginner investor with a long-term horizon at this time. While the company has shown resilience in its financials and has a robust backlog of contracts, insider selling, mixed analyst ratings, and a lack of strong proprietary trading signals suggest a cautious approach. The stock's current valuation and technical indicators do not present a compelling entry point for a long-term investor.
The stock shows bullish moving averages (SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200), and the MACD histogram is positive at 0.679, indicating upward momentum. However, the RSI at 71.92 is nearing overbought territory, suggesting limited immediate upside. Key resistance is at $43.04, with support at $39.25.
Noble secured significant contracts with Aker BP and Exxon, increasing its backlog to $7.5 billion.
The company returned $80 million to shareholders through dividends, reflecting strong shareholder commitment.
Revenue for Q4 2025 exceeded expectations by $31.67 million.
Insider selling increased by 9566.67% over the last month, signaling potential lack of confidence from management.
Mixed analyst ratings, with recent downgrades from Fearnley and SEB Equities.
Q4 Non-GAAP EPS missed estimates by $0.06, and 2026 revenue guidance is below market consensus.
For Q4 2025, Noble Corporation reported adjusted EBITDA of $232 million and free cash flow of $35 million, demonstrating resilience. However, YoY metrics for Q3 2025 showed significant declines: revenue down 0.80%, net income down 134.46%, and EPS down 132.50%. Gross margin also dropped by 40.15% YoY.
Analyst sentiment is mixed. Recent downgrades include Fearnley (Hold, $38 target) and SEB Equities (Sell, $33 target). Positive ratings include BTIG (Buy, $42 target) and Barclays (Overweight, $36 target). Analysts highlight a strong backlog but express concerns about valuation and profitability pressures.
