NCMI Should I Buy
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National CineMedia Inc (NCMI) does not present a strong buy opportunity for a beginner, long-term investor at this time. While the company has shown some revenue growth and positive financial management, the bearish technical indicators, insider and hedge fund selling trends, and lack of strong trading signals suggest a cautious approach. Holding the stock or waiting for clearer positive signals may be more prudent.
The MACD is positive and expanding, indicating some bullish momentum. However, the RSI is neutral at 64.454, and the moving averages are bearish (SMA_200 > SMA_20 > SMA_5). The stock is trading near its resistance level (R1: 3.524), which may limit upward movement in the short term.
The company reported Q4 2025 revenue of $93.2 million, an 8% YoY increase, and adjusted OIBDA of $37.2 million, reflecting strong holiday demand and effective expense management. Additionally, the stock is attracting dividend-focused investors during market turbulence.
Hedge funds and insiders are selling heavily, with increases of 10438.36% and 8250.95%, respectively. Analysts have lowered price targets, citing weaker-than-expected attendance and potential valuation pressures. The stock's bearish moving averages and proximity to resistance levels further limit its upside potential.
In Q3 2025, revenue increased by 1.60% YoY to $63.4 million, but net income dropped by -144.44% YoY to $1.6 million. EPS also declined by -150.00% YoY to $0.02, despite a 20.01% YoY increase in gross margin to 29.81%.
Analysts have lowered price targets recently, with B. Riley reducing it to $4 from $5 and Benchmark to $6 from $7. While Benchmark maintains a Buy rating, B. Riley keeps a Neutral rating, reflecting mixed sentiment.
