Should You Buy National Cinemedia Inc (NCMI) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.
Conclusion
Hold
Latest Price
3.580
1 Day change
-0.83%
52 Week Range
7.250
Analysis Updated At
2026/01/30
Not a good buy right now. NCMI is sitting just above near-term support (~3.59) but the trend is still bearish (downtrend moving averages + worsening MACD), while hedge funds and insiders have been aggressive net sellers. Options positioning is bullish/skewed to calls, yet that looks more like speculative upside betting than confirmation of a durable trend reversal. For an impatient buyer who doesn’t want to wait for a cleaner setup, the current risk/reward is unattractive versus waiting for either (1) a technical reclaim above ~3.75–3.91 or (2) a clear catalyst/earnings upside surprise.
Technical Analysis
Pre-market price is 3.61, very close to S1 support at 3.594 (and S2 at 3.497). Trend is bearish: SMA_200 > SMA_20 > SMA_5 confirms a sustained downtrend. Momentum is deteriorating with MACD histogram at -0.0137 and negatively expanding (bearish acceleration). RSI_6 at ~22.7 indicates the stock is stretched/oversold, which can support a short-term bounce, but oversold alone is not a buy signal when trend/momentum remain negative. Key levels: upside pivot 3.753; first resistance 3.912; stronger resistance 4.009. A bounce is possible from ~3.59, but without a reclaim of ~3.75–3.91 the path of least resistance remains down.
Options Data
Bullish
Open Interest Put-Call Ratio
Bullish
Option Volume Put-Call Ratio
Options market shows extremely call-heavy positioning (put/call OI ratio 0.03; put volume effectively 0). Call OI (9005) dwarfs put OI (237), implying bullish/speculative sentiment or positioning for upside. However, implied volatility is elevated (30D IV ~63.7 vs historical vol ~49.8; IV percentile ~67), meaning options are pricing in sizable moves and upside exposure is not cheap. Today’s options volume is above average (vs 30D avg ~148%), but it’s concentrated in calls, which can reflect chasing rather than informed hedging demand.
Technical Summary
Sell
10
Buy
4
Positive Catalysts
Strategic/operational: NCMI acquired Spotlight Cinema Networks (noted in news), which can expand network scale and ad inventory footprint.
Technical: RSI is oversold and price is sitting on first support (~3.59), which can trigger a reflex bounce.
Analyst upside case still exists: Benchmark maintains a Buy (despite trimming PT), implying some Street belief in recovery upside if attendance/ad demand improves.
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
Technical trend is still bearish (stacked bearish moving averages + worsening MACD), increasing odds that support breaks.
Sentiment/flow: Hedge funds are selling heavily (selling amount up ~10438% QoQ) and insiders are also selling aggressively (selling amount up ~8251% MoM)—a major headwind.
Industry/box office: Commentary points to weaker-than-expected attendance and a reassessed film slate; also potential valuation pressure tied to Warner Bros. Discovery-related developments (per B. Riley note context).
Event risk: With elevated IV, downside gaps can be amplified around news/earnings if results disappoint.
Financial Performance
Latest reported quarter: 2025/Q3. Revenue grew to $63.4M (+1.6% YoY), showing modest top-line improvement. However, profitability weakened sharply: Net income fell to $1.6M (-144.44% YoY) and EPS dropped to $0.02 (-150% YoY). A bright spot is gross margin improvement to 29.81% (+20.01% YoY), but the earnings decline suggests costs/other items are still pressuring bottom-line performance. Overall: slight revenue growth, improving gross margin, but deteriorating net earnings trend.
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Recent analyst trend is more cautious: price targets were cut in January. Benchmark kept a Buy but lowered PT to $6 from $7 (2026-01-07), citing weaker attendance and expecting Q4 revenue modestly below guidance (profitability within range). B. Riley kept Neutral and lowered PT to $4 from $5 (2026-01-22), pointing to a more subdued outlook after a weak holiday box office and potential valuation pressure from WBD-related developments. Wall Street pros: potential upside if theater attendance and ad demand rebound and integration benefits from Spotlight Cinema Networks materialize. Cons: near-term attendance softness, valuation/industry uncertainty, and weaker earnings trajectory.
Wall Street analysts forecast NCMI stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for NCMI is 5.83 USD with a low forecast of 5 USD and a high forecast of 6.5 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
3 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast NCMI stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for NCMI is 5.83 USD with a low forecast of 5 USD and a high forecast of 6.5 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
2 Buy
1 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 3.610
Low
5
Averages
5.83
High
6.5
Current: 3.610
Low
5
Averages
5.83
High
6.5
B. Riley
Drew Crum
Neutral
downgrade
$5 -> $4
AI Analysis
2026-01-22
Reason
B. Riley
Drew Crum
Price Target
$5 -> $4
AI Analysis
2026-01-22
downgrade
Neutral
Reason
B. Riley analyst Drew Crum lowered the firm's price target on National CineMedia (NCMI) to $4 from $5 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. The firm reviewed 4Q25 and previews exhibitor earnings with a slightly more subdued but still positive outlook following a weak holiday box office, a reassessed film slate, and potential valuation pressure from Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD)-related developments, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
Benchmark
Buy
downgrade
$7 -> $6
2026-01-07
Reason
Benchmark
Price Target
$7 -> $6
2026-01-07
downgrade
Buy
Reason
Benchmark lowered the firm's price target on National CineMedia to $6 from $7 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. Driven by weaker-than-expected attendance, the firm expects National CineMedia to report Q4 revenue modestly below guidance, but within the guided range on profitability, the analyst tells investors in a preview.
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