Should I Buy MPAA? MPAA 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy Motorcar Parts of America Inc (MPAA) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Hold

Latest Price

13.020

1 Day change

1.88%

52 Week Range

18.120

Analysis Updated At

2026/01/30

Not a good buy right now for an impatient investor. MPAA has only a mild bullish technical tilt (MACD improving) but is still sitting just below the pivot (~13.10) with no proprietary buy signals, no news catalyst, and pattern-based odds skewing slightly negative over the next week/month. Options positioning is call-leaning, but volume is extremely thin, making sentiment less reliable. I would wait for either (1) a clean reclaim/hold above 13.10–13.57 with momentum, or (2) a pullback toward 12.64 support before considering an entry.

Technical Analysis

Trend/Setup: Mixed-to-slightly constructive but not a clear breakout. Pre-market price 13.02 is just below the pivot at 13.103, suggesting the stock is still fighting for near-term direction. Momentum: MACD histogram is positive (0.0158) and expanding, indicating improving upside momentum. RSI: RSI(6) at ~52.8 is neutral—no strong overbought/oversold edge. Moving Averages: Converging moving averages imply consolidation rather than a strong trend. Key Levels: Support S1 12.64 (then S2 12.355). Resistance R1 13.565 (then R2 13.85). A sustained move above 13.565 would be the first clearer technical confirmation. Quant/Pattern Read: Similar-pattern stats point to a slightly negative drift (-0.45% next day, -2.81% next week, -2.1% next month), which argues against chasing immediately. Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals: - [AI Stock Picker](module://ai_stock_pick): No signal on given stock today. - [SwingMax](module://swingmax): No signal on given stock today.

Options Data

Bullish

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bullish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Sentiment: Open interest put-call ratio 0.49 is bullish-leaning (more calls than puts outstanding). Today’s volume is call-only (put volume 0), but total volume is extremely low (4 contracts), so the read is weak. Volatility: 30D IV ~82.8% vs historical vol ~97.2%, with IV percentile ~72.4—options are priced with elevated volatility expectations. That can reflect uncertainty into the next earnings window, but without meaningful volume it’s not a strong directional tell. Liquidity/Signal quality: Very thin activity reduces confidence in using options flow as a primary sentiment indicator.

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

Potential event catalyst: Upcoming earnings (QDEC
on 2026-02-09 pre-market can re-rate the stock if margins/profitability inflect.

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Profitability deterioration: Latest quarter shows net loss and weaker EPS with margin compression, which can cap near-term upside until a clear turnaround is visible.
No near-term news catalyst: No news in the recent week; absent a trigger, consolidation/mean reversion is more likely.
Bearish near-term drift from pattern stats: Similar candlestick pattern analysis implies mild downside bias over the next week/month.
Pre-market macro tape: S&P 500 indicated down (-0.81%), which can pressure small caps and lower-liquidity names intraday.

Financial Performance

Latest quarter: 2026/Q2. Revenue: $221.47M, up 6.38% YoY (top-line growth remains positive). Profitability: Net income -$2.149M (worse YoY), EPS -0.11 (worse YoY), indicating continued losses. Margins: Gross margin 19.61%, down 1.11 YoY, suggesting cost pressure and limiting operating leverage. Takeaway: Growth exists, but the key issue is the lack of profitable conversion and declining margin—this weakens the case for an immediate buy without a technical breakout or a clear earnings-driven turnaround.

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

Recent trend: Limited coverage data provided; the notable recent change is a new initiation. Latest action: On 2025-12-12, Freedom Capital initiated with a Buy and a $20 price target. Wall Street pros: Non-discretionary replacement parts exposure and tailwinds from an aging vehicle fleet; expectation of steady, mid-single-digit sales growth. Wall Street cons: Current fundamentals show losses and gross margin pressure; without margin improvement, the stock may struggle to sustain rerating despite revenue growth. Influential/political trading: No recent congress trading data available; hedge funds and insiders are neutral with no significant recent trends.

Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast MPAA stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for MPAA is 0 USD with a low forecast of 0 USD and a high forecast of 0 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

Buy

Hold

Sell

Current: 12.780

Low

Averages

High

Current: 12.780

Low

Averages

High

Freedom Capital

NULL -> Buy

initiated

$20

AI Analysis

2025-12-12

Reason