Should You Buy Mach Natural Resources LP (MNR) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.
Conclusion
Sell
Latest Price
11.690
1 Day change
-0.34%
52 Week Range
18.390
Analysis Updated At
2026/01/30
Not a good buy right now. MNR is in a clear downtrend (bearish moving-average stack and price trading below key support levels), and options flow is aggressively defensive today (put volume overwhelms calls). With no positive news catalysts in the past week and a recent high-profile downgrade citing weak commodity pricing and an “uncertain” yield outlook, the near-term setup does not fit an impatient buyer. Best call: avoid/new buys here; if you already own it and are not willing to wait for a cleaner reversal, reduce/sell into any bounce.
**Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals**
- [AI Stock Picker](module://ai_stock_pick): No signal on given stock today.
- [SwingMax](module://swingmax): No signal on given stock today.
Technical Analysis
Trend is bearish. Moving averages are stacked negatively (SMA_200 > SMA_20 > SMA_5), signaling sustained downside momentum. Current pre-market price is 11.73, which is well below the provided support/pivot zone (S2 12.764, S1 12.915, Pivot 13.159), implying a breakdown rather than a pullback to support. RSI(6) at 33.83 is weak and near oversold, but not showing a clear reversal signal. MACD histogram is slightly positive (0.0123) but positively contracting, which often reflects weakening upside impulse during a broader downtrend. Overall: technicals do not support an immediate “buy now” for a fast entry.
Options Data
Bullish
Open Interest Put-Call Ratio
Bearish
Option Volume Put-Call Ratio
Open interest put/call ratio (0.65) suggests positioning is not heavily bearish on a standing basis (more call OI than put OI). However, today’s option volume put/call ratio is extremely high (6.45) with volume far above normal (today vs 30-day avg volume ~442%), indicating strong near-term demand for puts (hedging/speculation) and bearish/defensive sentiment into the session. Implied volatility is low relative to its own history (IV percentile ~4), meaning options are relatively cheap; that can encourage hedging and does not contradict the bearish volume signal.
Technical Summary
Sell
12
Buy
2
Positive Catalysts
Upcoming earnings: QDEC 2025 results on 2026-02-16 after hours (event-driven catalyst if results/distributions surprise to the upside). Prior bullish coverage remains (e.g., Stifel kept Buy despite a lower PT; Northland maintained Outperform previously). If oil/gas prices rebound, sentiment and distribution expectations could improve quickly.
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
Recent analyst downgrade (KeyBanc to Sector Weight) explicitly tied to weak oil prices, volatile natural gas prices, and an “uncertain” yield outlook. Technical breakdown below key support levels increases odds of continued selling pressure. Options market shows heavy put volume today, consistent with near-term downside protection/negative sentiment. Integration year risk (mixing oily Central Basin Platform and gassy San Juan Basin assets) plus potential capex reductions to maintain a reinvestment mandate may pressure near-term growth/expectations.
Financial Performance
Latest reported quarter: 2025/Q3. Revenue grew to $272.56M (+6.66% YoY), but profitability deteriorated sharply: net income fell to -$35.65M (-152.86% YoY) and EPS to -$0.28 (-140% YoY). Gross margin declined to 36.1 (-13.57% YoY). Summary: top-line growth exists, but margins and earnings trend are negative, which weakens the case for an immediate buy without a clear catalyst or technical reversal.
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Trend has weakened recently. In January 2026, KeyBanc downgraded MNR from Overweight to Sector Weight (no PT) on commodity weakness and uncertain yield/integration dynamics. Stifel maintained a Buy but reduced its price target to $18 from $22 (reflecting lower commodity price assumptions). Northland previously kept Outperform but trimmed PT to $20 from $21. Wall Street pros: upside case hinges on distribution/yield stability and commodity recovery; downside case centers on weak oil/gas pricing, integration execution, and earnings/distribution uncertainty. Net takeaway: ratings are mixed but drifting more cautious due to macro/commodity and yield visibility.
Wall Street analysts forecast MNR stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for MNR is 18.67 USD with a low forecast of 18 USD and a high forecast of 20 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
4 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast MNR stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for MNR is 18.67 USD with a low forecast of 18 USD and a high forecast of 20 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
4 Buy
0 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 11.730
Low
18
Averages
18.67
High
20
Current: 11.730
Low
18
Averages
18.67
High
20
KeyBanc
Overweight -> Sector Weight
downgrade
AI Analysis
2026-01-16
Reason
KeyBanc
Price Target
AI Analysis
2026-01-16
downgrade
Overweight -> Sector Weight
Reason
KeyBanc last night downgraded Mach Natural Resources to Sector Weight from Overweight without a price target. The firm enters 2026 with a more selective view of the oil and gas group citing weak oil prices and volatile natural gas prices. It downgrades Mach on its "uncertain" yield outlook. KeyBanc sees a year of integration for Mach, as it folds in oily Central Basin Platform assets and gassy San Juan Basin assets into the portfolio. Consensus earnings estimates have downside risk as the partnership reduces capex to stick to its 50% reinvestment rate mandate, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
KeyBanc
Overweight -> Sector Weight
downgrade
2026-01-15
Reason
KeyBanc
Price Target
2026-01-15
downgrade
Overweight -> Sector Weight
Reason
KeyBanc downgraded Mach Natural Resources to Sector Weight from Overweight.
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