Should I Buy MGRC? MGRC 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy McGrath RentCorp (MGRC) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Sell

Latest Price

111.690

1 Day change

0.87%

52 Week Range

129.930

Analysis Updated At

2026/01/30

MGRC is not a good buy right now. The stock just sold off hard (-5.68% vs prior close), technical momentum is weakening (MACD still positive but contracting), options positioning is skewed bearish (high put/call open interest with elevated IV), and the latest reported quarter (2025/Q3) shows sharp profit deterioration (EPS and net income down ~72% YoY). With no bullish proprietary signal and an impatient buy-now preference, the risk/reward is unfavorable at current levels.

Technical Analysis

Price/Trend: A sharp -5.68% regular-session drop signals near-term bearish control. Momentum: MACD histogram is positive (0.248) but ‘positively contracting,’ implying upside momentum is fading rather than strengthening. RSI: RSI_6 at 42.53 is neutral-to-weak (not oversold), so there’s no strong mean-reversion buy trigger yet. Moving Averages: Converging moving averages suggest indecision/transition, not a clean uptrend. Levels: Pivot 113.05 is now overhead resistance; first resistance at 117.30. Key support is S1 108.80 (then S2 106.18). After the selloff, price is closer to support, but there is no confirmation of a bounce. Pattern-based forward bias: Similar-pattern study suggests a 60% chance of further downside (-1.2% next day, -1.35% next week). Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals - [AI Stock Picker](module://ai_stock_pick): No signal on given stock today. - [SwingMax](module://swingmax): No signal on given stock today.

Options Data

Bearish

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bullish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Sentiment/Positioning: Open interest put/call ratio at 2.83 is meaningfully bearish (more puts than calls outstanding), consistent with hedging or bearish positioning. Volatility: 30D implied volatility is extremely elevated (90.8) versus historical volatility (25.76), and IV percentile is high (81.2). This indicates the options market is pricing large moves and/or elevated uncertainty. Flow: Today’s option volume is small (13 puts, 0 calls), but volume vs 30-day average is very high (650), suggesting a spike in attention, skewing bearish given puts dominated activity. Implication: Options data leans bearish/defensive and does not support an “aggressive buy now” stance.

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

Upcoming earnings event: QDEC 2025 earnings on 2026-02-25 (after hours) could act as a catalyst if results/forward commentary re-accelerate.
Gross margin improved in 2025/Q3 (55.03%, +0.57% YoY), showing some operational resilience even while profits fell.

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Recent sharp selloff (-5.68%) indicates negative near-term sentiment and potential technical damage.
Options positioning is bearish (put-heavy open interest) with very high implied volatility, signaling elevated uncertainty and downside hedging.
No supportive news flow in the past week to explain/offset the weakness.
Pattern-based probabilities favor continued drift lower over the next day/week.
Next earnings could be a downside catalyst if weak profitability trends persist.

Financial Performance

Latest quarter: 2025/Q3. Revenue: $256.44M, down -3.87% YoY (top-line contraction). Net income: $42.30M, down -71.67% YoY (major profitability decline). EPS: 1.72, down -71.71% YoY (sharp earnings compression). Gross margin: 55.03%, up +0.57% YoY (margin up slightly, but not enough to prevent steep earnings decline). Takeaway: Growth and earnings momentum are negative, which weakens the case for buying immediately after a selloff.

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

No analyst rating or price target change data was provided, so a current Wall Street pro/con consensus cannot be verified from the dataset. Trading trends show hedge funds and insiders as Neutral (no significant recent buying/selling trends), and there is no recent congress trading data available in the last 90 days.

1 Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast MGRC stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for MGRC is 143 USD with a low forecast of 143 USD and a high forecast of 143 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

1 Buy

0 Hold

0 Sell

Moderate Buy

Current: 110.730

Low

143

Averages

143

High

143

Current: 110.730

Low

143

Averages

143

High

143

Oppenheimer

Outperform

maintain

$139 -> $143

AI Analysis

2025-09-18

Reason

Oppenheimer

Price Target

$139 -> $143

AI Analysis

2025-09-18

maintain

Outperform

Reason

Oppenheimer raised the firm's price target on McGrath RentCorp to $143 from $139 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares after recently conducting investor meetings with McGrath's CEO/CFO. The company is poised to deliver relatively resilient and predictable adjusted EBITDA growth over a multi-year period, primarily via its core Mobile Modular rental operations. Mobile Modular's increasing rental revenue/unit, which is partly driven by emerging offerings Mobile Modular Plus/Site Related Services, contributes to revenue growth visibility for years to come given the four-year average duration of its rentals. McGrath's smaller Portable Storage segment appears to be stabilizing, while the company's TRS-RenTelco segment is rebounding, the firm adds.

MGRC Should I Buy

MGRC Should I Buy

Should You Buy McGrath RentCorp (MGRC) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Technical Analysis

Options Data

Technical Summary

Positive Catalysts

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Financial Performance

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

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