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01/11 03:34
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Access earnings results, analyst expectations, report, slides, earnings call, and transcript.
The earnings call presents a mixed outlook. On the positive side, there's a slight improvement in EPS guidance and strong pipeline segment earnings. However, increased operating costs, higher depreciation, and regulatory uncertainties pose significant risks. The lack of questions in the Q&A session indicates no major analyst concerns but also no strong positive sentiment. Considering these factors, the stock price is likely to remain stable, resulting in a neutral sentiment.
Income from continuing operations $18.4 million or $0.09 per share for Q3 2025, an increase of $2.8 million or $0.01 per share over Q3 2024. The increase was driven by strong performance at the Pipeline segment, despite increased operating costs across business segments.
Electric Utility earnings $21.5 million for Q3 2025, compared to $24.3 million in Q3 2024. The decrease was due to higher operation and maintenance expenses (including payroll-related costs and contract services for electric generation station outages) and higher depreciation expense, despite higher retail sales revenues.
Natural Gas utility seasonal loss $18.2 million in Q3 2025, compared to a loss of $17.5 million in Q3 2024. The increased loss was driven by higher operation and maintenance expenses (primarily payroll-related costs) and higher depreciation expense related to capital projects, partially offset by higher retail sales revenue due to rate relief in Washington, Montana, and Wyoming.
Pipeline segment earnings Record earnings of $16.8 million for Q3 2025, compared to $15.1 million in Q3 2024. The increase was driven by higher transportation revenue from growth projects placed in service in late 2024 and customer demand for short-term firm natural gas transportation contracts, partially offset by higher operation and maintenance expenses, property taxes, and depreciation.
Badger Wind Farm acquisition: The North Dakota Public Service Commission approved the advanced determination of prudence filing for the proposed acquisition of a 49% ownership interest in the Badger Wind Farm, equating to 122.5 megawatts of the project's total 250 megawatts of generation capacity. The acquisition is expected to be completed around year-end and is included in the 2026 capital budget.
Minot expansion project: The project was placed in service earlier this month, adding approximately 7 million cubic feet of natural gas transportation capacity per day.
Minot Industrial Pipeline project: An agreement was signed to support the early-stage development of this 90-mile pipeline from Tioga, North Dakota to Minot, North Dakota, aimed at providing incremental natural gas transportation capacity for anticipated industrial demand.
Data center load growth: The electric utility has 580 megawatts of data center load under signed electric service agreements, with 180 megawatts currently online. Additional capacity is expected to come online in phases through 2027. The company is pursuing a capital-light business model for these opportunities.
Bakken East pipeline project: The project was selected by the North Dakota Industrial Commission for firm pipeline capacity commitments of up to $50 million annually for 10 years. It aims to provide natural gas transportation service for industrial, power generation, and local distribution companies, addressing growing demand in the Bakken region.
Utility customer growth: The utility experienced a 1.5% combined retail customer growth compared to the previous year, aligning with the targeted annual growth rate of 1% to 2%.
Rate case settlements: Settlements were approved in Wyoming ($2.1 million annual increase), Montana ($7.3 million annual increase), and Idaho ($13 million annual increase expected to be effective January 1, 2026).
Long-term growth strategy: The company raised the bottom end of its earnings per share guidance to $0.90-$0.95 per share and continues to target a long-term EPS growth rate of 6%-8% with a 60%-70% annual dividend payout ratio.
North Plains Connector project: A nonbinding memorandum of understanding was signed for potential investment in this project, aimed at enhancing grid resiliency and meeting customer demand.
Increased Operating Costs: Higher operation and maintenance expenses, including payroll-related costs and contract services, impacted financial results across business segments.
Regulatory and Rate Case Challenges: The company faces uncertainties in regulatory approvals and rate case decisions, including pending decisions in Montana, North Dakota, and South Dakota, which could affect cost recovery and financial performance.
Wildfire Mitigation Costs: The company is incurring costs related to wildfire mitigation plans, with filings expected in multiple states, adding financial pressure.
Capital Investment Requirements: Significant capital investments are required for projects like the Badger Wind Farm, North Plains Connector, and Bakken East pipeline, which may strain financial resources and require equity financing.
Depreciation and Maintenance Costs: Higher depreciation expenses from capital projects and maintenance costs for electric generation stations are negatively impacting earnings.
Seasonal Losses in Natural Gas Utility: The Natural Gas utility segment reported seasonal losses, driven by increased operational and maintenance expenses and higher depreciation.
Dependence on Customer Demand and Agreements: Future projects like the Bakken East pipeline and data center load expansions depend on securing customer agreements and commitments, introducing uncertainty.
Economic and Market Risks: The company’s financial performance is sensitive to market conditions, customer demand, and economic factors, which could impact growth projections and earnings.
Pipeline Segment Growth: Continued strong customer demand at the Pipeline segment and progress in utility regulatory schedules provide opportunities for customer-driven growth projects in pipeline and utility infrastructure.
Electric Segment Investment: The North Dakota Public Service Commission approved the acquisition of a 49% ownership interest in the Badger Wind Farm, expected to be completed by year-end 2025. This investment is included in the 2026 capital budget.
Data Center Load Expansion: Currently, 580 megawatts of data center load are under signed electric service agreements, with 180 megawatts online. Additional 100 megawatts are expected to ramp online late 2025 into 2026, 150 megawatts later in 2026, and the remaining 150 megawatts in 2027. The company is pursuing additional data center customers and may invest in new generation and transmission assets if agreements are signed.
Natural Gas Segment Developments: A settlement agreement in Wyoming approved an annual increase of $2.1 million effective August 1, 2025. Additional rate cases in Montana and Idaho are expected to result in increases effective November 1, 2025, and January 1, 2026, respectively. A general rate case in Oregon is planned before year-end 2025.
Pipeline Expansion Projects: The Minot expansion project added 7 million cubic feet of natural gas transportation capacity per day. The Line Section 32 Expansion Project is targeting construction completion by late 2028. The Bakken East pipeline project is under active marketing and planning, with a binding open season planned for Q1 2026. The Minot Industrial Pipeline project is in early-stage development.
Earnings Per Share Guidance: The company raised the bottom end of its 2025 earnings per share guidance to $0.90-$0.95, up from $0.88-$0.95, contingent on normal weather and operating conditions in Q4 2025.
Long-Term Financial Targets: The company anticipates a long-term EPS growth rate of 6%-8% and targets a 60%-70% annual dividend payout ratio.
Dividend Payout Ratio: Targeting a 60% to 70% annual dividend payout ratio.
The earnings call presents a mixed outlook. On the positive side, there's a slight improvement in EPS guidance and strong pipeline segment earnings. However, increased operating costs, higher depreciation, and regulatory uncertainties pose significant risks. The lack of questions in the Q&A session indicates no major analyst concerns but also no strong positive sentiment. Considering these factors, the stock price is likely to remain stable, resulting in a neutral sentiment.
The earnings call revealed declining financial performance, with lower income from continuing operations and reduced earnings in various segments. The revised EPS guidance, attributed to unfavorable weather and increased costs, suggests challenges in achieving profitability. The Q&A section highlighted uncertainties in project timelines and management's unclear responses, further contributing to a negative sentiment. Despite a stable dividend payout target, the overall outlook is clouded by financial risks and dependency on external factors, leading to a predicted negative stock price movement.
Despite some positive indicators like a strong capital investment plan and projected EPS growth, concerns over regulatory approvals, economic sensitivity, and operational costs persist. The Q&A reveals uncertainty about the Bakken East project and potential tariffs, dampening optimism. The earnings call shows mixed financial performance, with some segments growing while others face challenges. Overall, the sentiment is neutral, with no strong catalysts to drive a significant stock price movement.
The earnings call presents mixed signals. Financial performance shows improvements, but concerns like regulatory risks, higher operational costs, and reliance on capital markets pose challenges. The Q&A indicates cautious optimism, particularly for projects like Bakken East, but lacks clarity on certain financial specifics. The company's strategic initiatives, including a significant capital investment program and stable dividend payout target, offer potential growth. However, uncertainties in regulatory approvals and market conditions may weigh down positive sentiments. Given these factors, a neutral stock price movement is expected over the next two weeks.
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