Should I Buy MBLY? MBLY 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy Mobileye Global Inc (MBLY) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Sell

Latest Price

8.980

1 Day change

-3.13%

52 Week Range

20.180

Analysis Updated At

2026/01/30

MBLY is not a good buy right now. The stock is in a confirmed bearish trend (bearish moving-average stack, weakening MACD), analysts are actively cutting targets/downgrading after soft FY26 guidance, and insider activity is heavily skewed to selling. Even though it looks oversold and could bounce near support, the current setup favors further downside rather than an immediate, high-confidence entry for an impatient buyer.

Technical Analysis

Trend/structure: Bearish. Moving averages are stacked negatively (SMA_200 > SMA_20 > SMA_5), signaling a sustained downtrend. Momentum: MACD histogram is -0.153 and negatively expanding, suggesting downside momentum is still building rather than stabilizing. RSI: RSI_6 at ~24 is oversold (despite the provided note calling it neutral). Oversold can create short bounces, but in strong downtrends oversold can persist. Levels: Current ~9.25 is below S1 (9.379), implying prior support has been lost; next support is S2 at 8.907. Immediate resistance is the pivot at 10.143, then R1 10.907. Pattern-based odds: Similar-pattern model implies negative drift (-0.86% next day, -6.71% next week, -7.81% next month), aligning with the bearish indicators. Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals - [AI Stock Picker](module://ai_stock_pick): no signal on given stock today. - [SwingMax](module://swingmax): No signal on given stock recently.

Options Data

Bullish

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Neutral

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Positioning/sentiment: Open-interest put/call at 0.55 suggests more call open interest than puts (mildly bullish longer-positioning bias), but the volume put/call at 1.02 is slightly put-heavy on the day (near-term caution). Activity/conviction: Today’s option volume (~5.2k) is only ~40% of the 30-day average, implying muted conviction. Volatility: IV (30d) ~53.9 vs HV ~49.9, with IV percentile 12 (low vs its own history). Options are not priced for extreme moves right now, but low IV alone is not a buy signal when the underlying trend is decisively down. Net takeaway: Options are mixed—positioning leans modestly bullish (OI), but near-term trading flow is slightly defensive (volume), with low overall participation.

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

- Robotaxi/AV narrative remains a potential longer-term catalyst; recent coverage highlighted scalability initiatives (remote-operator needs, tech/partnership efforts).
- Q4 revenue ($446M) exceeded expectations despite being down YoY, which can support occasional relief rallies if broader sentiment improves.
- Some bullish sell-side holds remain (e.g., Canaccord Buy, Raymond James Outperform) citing longer-term upside potential and operating leverage on incremental revenue.

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

with bearish MA stack and deteriorating MACD increases odds of a continued slide toward ~8.91 support.

Financial Performance

Latest quarter (2025/Q4): - Revenue: $446M, down 8.98% YoY (top-line contraction). - Net income: -$127M (still a loss), but improved 78.87% YoY. - EPS: -$0.16, improved 77.78% YoY. - Gross margin: 45.29%, down 7.91% YoY (margin pressure). Growth read-through: Revenue and gross margin trends are negative, while losses narrowed; however, the market is focusing more on muted growth outlook and cost/investment burden than on the YoY loss improvement.

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

Recent trend: Clear negative skew. Since 2026-01-22/23, multiple firms cut price targets and several downgraded (e.g., HSBC to Hold, Arete to Neutral), largely after Q4 results and FY26 guidance commentary. Many ratings cluster around Neutral/Hold/Sector Perform/Equal Weight with reduced targets (~$11–$13), while a minority remain positive (e.g., Raymond James Outperform $16, Canaccord Buy $24) but still cut targets. Wall Street pros vs cons: - Pros: Long-term platform optionality (ADAS/robotaxi), potential acceleration later in the decade, and operating leverage if revenue re-accelerates. - Cons: Near-term growth softness, expense ramp (R&D), competitive landscape, and limited recent high-level autonomy award momentum; near-term risk is highlighted as extending into 2027 estimates by at least one firm. Influential/political activity: No recent congress trading data available. Hedge funds noted as Neutral. Insiders are selling, which is a notable negative signal.

18 Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast MBLY stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for MBLY is 17.59 USD with a low forecast of 12 USD and a high forecast of 30 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

9 Buy

9 Hold

0 Sell

Moderate Buy

Current: 9.270

Low

Averages

17.59

High

Current: 9.270

Low

Averages

17.59

High

Tigress Financial

Buy

maintain

$25

AI Analysis

2026-01-29

New

Reason

Tigress Financial

Price Target

$25

AI Analysis

2026-01-29

New

maintain

Buy

Reason

Tigress Financial keeps a Buy rating and $25 price target on Mobileye, noting the stock investment story is supported by growing monetization of its higher-value Surround ADAS and SuperVision pipeline, a clear roadmap to eyes-off Chauffeur/Drive robotaxis, and long-duration upside from Mentee Robotics-driven Physical AI and humanoid robotics. These create a compelling long-term investment opportunity in Mobileye, the analyst tells investors in a research note.

Arete

Alexis Unger

Buy

Neutral

downgrade

$15.70

2026-01-27

New

Reason

Arete

Alexis Unger

Price Target

$15.70

2026-01-27

New

downgrade

Buy

Neutral

Reason

Arete analyst Alexis Unger downgraded Mobileye to Neutral from Buy with a $15.70 price target.

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MBLY Should I Buy

MBLY Should I Buy

Should You Buy Mobileye Global Inc (MBLY) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Technical Analysis

Options Data

Technical Summary

Positive Catalysts

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Financial Performance

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

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