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Access earnings results, analyst expectations, report, slides, earnings call, and transcript.
The earnings call reveals mixed results: strong financial performance with increased EPS and revenue, yet declining margins and revised revenue guidance indicating potential challenges. The Q&A section highlights concerns about retail growth and market dynamics, with management avoiding direct answers about current trading. While shareholder returns through buybacks are positive, aggressive production cuts and increased credit losses present risks. Overall, the negative aspects, including the revised guidance and production cuts, outweigh the positives, suggesting a negative market reaction.
Consolidated Revenue $1.63 billion, up 12% year-over-year, driven by 13% growth at HDMC and 10% growth at HDFS.
Earnings Per Share (EPS) $1.63, up 34% from $1.22 last year.
Consolidated Operating Income $241 million, up 9% year-over-year, largely due to a 21% increase at HDFS.
HDMC Operating Income Up 2% year-over-year.
LiveWire Operating Loss $28 million, an improvement of $4 million compared to a year ago.
Consolidated Margin 14.9%, down from 15.3% in the prior year.
HDFS Revenue $253 million, up $23 million or 10% year-over-year, driven by higher retail and commercial finance receivables.
HDFS Operating Income $71 million, up 21% year-over-year, driven by higher interest income and lower provision for credit losses.
Total Interest Expense (HDFS) $8 million, up 9% year-over-year, due to higher cost of funds.
LiveWire Revenue $11 million, down 25% year-over-year, primarily due to lower revenue at STACYC.
Operating Cash Flow $578 million, up from $411 million in the same period last year, due to positive changes in working capital.
Total Cash and Cash Equivalents $1.8 billion, up $327 million from the end of Q2 last year.
Share Repurchases $102 million spent to buy back 2.9 million shares in Q2, totaling $200 million for the first half of 2024.
New Product Launches: LiveWire launched the STACYC Electric Balance bike in the EMEA market to broaden its product offering.
Electric Motorcycle Sales: LiveWire reported a triple-digit increase in branded unit sales compared to Q2 2023, making it the number one on-road electric motorcycle retailer in the U.S. for the first half of 2024.
Market Expansion: LiveWire's market presence is growing steadily, especially in Europe, with two models, LiveWire 1 and Del Mar, now in market.
Operational Efficiency: LiveWire's operating growth improved by 12% compared to Q2 2023, driven by cost-cutting measures and efficiency improvements.
Cost Reduction Plans: LiveWire plans to significantly reduce cash burn next year while aligning expenses with market realities.
Strategic Shifts: Harley-Davidson is focusing on performance as a key differentiator, with 44% of riders considering it the most important feature when purchasing.
Investment in Manufacturing: Harley-Davidson was awarded a $89 million Department of Energy grant to invest in its New York facility for EV motorcycle manufacturing.
High Interest Rate Environment: The company is experiencing the impact of a high interest rate environment, particularly affecting big ticket consumer discretionary sectors.
Mixed Global Performance: Retail sales performance varies significantly across international markets, with declines in EMEA and Asia Pacific, particularly in China.
Dealer Inventory Reduction: A planned reduction in dealer inventory of approximately 30% could impact dealer health and sales.
LiveWire Operating Loss: LiveWire continues to incur operating losses, with expectations of a loss between $105 million to $115 million for the full year.
Cash Burn at LiveWire: LiveWire is focused on reducing cash burn and aligning expenses with market realities.
Production Cuts: Aggressive production cuts in the second half of the year may lead to a gross margin headwind greater than originally estimated.
Credit Losses: An increase in the retail credit loss ratio to 3.1% reflects challenges in the current macroeconomic environment.
Supply Chain Costs: The company is working to eliminate $400 million of incremental supply chain costs, which remains a challenge.
Revenue Guidance Revision: Revenue expectations have been revised down to a range of 5% to 9% decline, indicating potential challenges in meeting previous targets.
Strategic Initiatives: The company is focused on its Hardwire strategic pillar, emphasizing profit focus, strong product mix, and growth in touring models, particularly CVO offerings.
Cost Reduction: LiveWire is committed to reducing its cash burn and lowering its breakeven point through cost-cutting measures and efficiency improvements.
Department of Energy Grant: Harley-Davidson was awarded a grant of $89 million to invest in its New York facility, enhancing manufacturing capabilities for EV motorcycles.
Share Repurchase Program: The company announced a plan to repurchase $1 billion in shares through 2026, reflecting its commitment to return capital to shareholders.
Revenue Expectations: For 2024, Harley-Davidson expects revenue to decline by 5% to 9%, revised from flat to down 9%.
Operating Income Margin: Projected operating income margin is now between 10.6% and 11.6%, down from the previous guidance of 12.6% to 13.6%.
Retail and Wholesale Units: Retail units sold are expected to be flat to up 3%, while wholesale shipments are projected to decline by 7% to 10%.
LiveWire Projections: LiveWire expects to deliver between 1,000 and 1,500 electric motorcycle units with an operating loss between $105 million and $115 million.
Capital Expenditures: Capital investment is expected to be in the range of $225 million to $250 million for 2024.
Dividend Policy: The dividend policy remains unchanged, and the company continues to expect the dividend for the remaining quarters of 2024 to be in line with Q2 and Q1.
Share Repurchase Plan: The company announced a plan to repurchase $1 billion in shares through 2026.
Share Buyback in Q2 2024: In Q2 2024, the company bought back 2.9 million shares at a cost of $102 million, bringing the total for the first half of 2024 to 5.5 million shares at a total value of $200 million.
The earnings report shows significant declines in key metrics, including a 28% drop in motorcycle shipments, decreased margins, and lower operating income. Although there are some improvements, such as reduced operating losses for LiveWire and positive trends in retail sales, the overall financial health is concerning. The Q&A reveals a cautious outlook with uncertainties in dealer inventories and incomplete information on new initiatives. The withdrawal of 2025 guidance and tariff impacts further dampen sentiment, leading to a negative outlook for the stock price.
The earnings call highlights several negative aspects: a decline in gross margin and operating margin, a 23% drop in consolidated revenue, and a mixed Q&A session with unclear management responses. While there are positive elements like increased operating income in HDFS and cost savings, the overall sentiment is overshadowed by weak financial performance and lack of clarity on strategic issues. Given the company's small-cap status, these factors are likely to result in a negative stock price movement in the short term.
The earnings call reflects several negative indicators: substantial declines in global retail and wholesale sales, reduced operating margins, and a drop in consolidated revenue. Despite positive elements like share repurchases and improved cash flow, the weak financial performance and unclear guidance on strategic partnerships and tariff impacts outweigh these. The market cap indicates a moderate reaction, leading to a negative sentiment prediction (-2% to -8%).
Despite the share repurchase program, the financial performance was weak with significant revenue decline and operating losses. The guidance was revised downward, and there are concerns about future profitability, especially in the LiveWire segment. The Q&A highlighted inventory and margin issues, and management's vague responses on LiveWire's profitability timeline add uncertainty. The market cap suggests moderate reaction, leading to an expected negative stock price movement of -2% to -8%.
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