Should You Buy Centrus Energy Corp (LEU) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.
Conclusion
Hold
Latest Price
301.500
1 Day change
-10.74%
52 Week Range
464.250
Analysis Updated At
2026/01/30
LEU is not a good buy right now. Despite a strong longer-term uptrend structure (bullish moving averages) and bullish options positioning, today’s sharp selloff (-10.74%) plus a negatively expanding MACD suggests near-term downside/continued digestion is still likely. With no Intellectia buy signal and price sitting below the key pivot (309.73), the better risk/reward entry is after LEU reclaims ~310 with improving momentum, or on a deeper pullback toward the first support zone (~283).
Technical Analysis
Trend/structure is still bullish on a longer horizon (SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200), but the near-term tape weakened materially today.
- Momentum: MACD histogram is -0.235 and negatively expanding, consistent with a fresh downside push rather than a completed pullback.
- RSI(6): 47.77 (neutral) — not oversold, so there’s room for additional downside before a classic mean-reversion bounce becomes compelling.
- Key levels: Price (302) is below Pivot 309.73, making 309–310 the near-term ‘regain’ level for bulls. Nearest support is S1 282.76 (then S2 266.10). Upside resistances are R1 336.70 and R2 353.36.
- Pattern-based odds provided: only modest expected upside (30% chance of ~+2.37% next day), which does not offset the current negative momentum.
**Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals**
- [AI Stock Picker](module://ai_stock_pick): No signal on given stock today.
- [SwingMax](module://swingmax): No signal on given stock recently.
Options Data
Bullish
Open Interest Put-Call Ratio
Bullish
Option Volume Put-Call Ratio
Options positioning leans bullish (both open-interest and volume put/call ratios < 1), suggesting traders are still skewed to calls even after the drop.
- IV is extremely elevated: 30D IV ~103% with IV percentile 89.6, implying options are priced for very large moves.
- Activity: today’s volume (3,604) is below the 5D/10D averages (4,689/5,397), so the bullish skew is present but not accompanied by a surge in fresh volume today.
Takeaway: sentiment is constructive, but the very high IV also implies the market expects big swings (not a calm, clean rebound).
Technical Summary
Sell
7
Buy
5
Positive Catalysts
1) DOE award tailwind: Recent analyst notes cite the $900M DOE award as de-risking funding and pulling forward timelines for HALEU capacity expansion.
2) Structural demand narrative: News highlights global nuclear revival and data-center-driven power demand, supporting a multi-year enrichment/fuel-cycle buildout story.
3) Near-term catalyst: Upcoming Q4 and full-year 2025 earnings (Feb 10, 2026 after hours; call Feb 11) can reset expectations and act as a sentiment catalyst if guidance/backlog/margins improve.
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
1) Near-term technical damage: -10.74% day with a negatively expanding MACD increases the odds of follow-through selling before stabilization.
2) Earnings event risk: With earnings imminent, the stock can gap meaningfully either way; current price action suggests the market is not in ‘easy mode’ going into the print.
3) Profitability/margin concerns from the latest reported quarter: despite revenue growth, net income/EPS and gross margin metrics deteriorated sharply (see financial section), which can weigh on investor confidence until clarified.
4) No supportive ‘smart money’ signal: hedge fund and insider trend data are neutral; no notable momentum confirmation from those cohorts in the provided data.
Financial Performance
Latest provided quarter: 2025/Q3.
- Revenue: $74.9M, +29.81% YoY (strong top-line growth).
- Net income: $3.9M, -178.00% YoY.
- EPS: $0.19, -163.33% YoY.
- Gross margin: -7.21 (material deterioration).
Interpretation: Growth is strong, but profitability and margin performance (as reported) are a clear weak spot. For a ‘buy now’ decision, the market typically wants either improving margins or a clear explanation that the margin/EPS drop is temporary and about to reverse—something likely addressed in the upcoming Q4/FY25 earnings.
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Recent trend: price targets have mostly moved up (Northland to $325, BofA to $340, Roth to $125, UBS to $245; Evercore reiterates $390; Needham initiated Buy at $357), largely tied to DOE funding/HALEU momentum and an improved strategic outlook.
Wall Street pros/cons view:
- Pros: Strong strategic positioning as domestic enrichment/HALEU supplier, policy-driven support, long runway from U.S. supply chain rebuild and Russian supply exit dynamics.
- Cons: Several firms remain Neutral even after raising targets (UBS, BofA, Roth), implying valuation/execution/timing risk and/or near-term earnings power uncertainty.
Influential/political trading check: No recent congress trading data available in the last 90 days; no politician activity cited in the provided dataset.
Hedge funds/insiders: both neutral with no significant recent trend.
Wall Street analysts forecast LEU stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for LEU is 297.1 USD with a low forecast of 117 USD and a high forecast of 390 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
14 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast LEU stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for LEU is 297.1 USD with a low forecast of 117 USD and a high forecast of 390 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
10 Buy
4 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 337.760
Low
117
Averages
297.1
High
390
Current: 337.760
Low
117
Averages
297.1
High
390
Roth Capital
Neutral
maintain
$117 -> $125
AI Analysis
2026-01-08
Reason
Roth Capital
Price Target
$117 -> $125
AI Analysis
2026-01-08
maintain
Neutral
Reason
Roth Capital raised the firm's price target on Centrus Energy to $125 from $117 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. The $900M award from the DOE to expand its HALEU production capabilities allows Centrus to be well-positioned to move forward with capacity expansions, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
Northland
Outperform
maintain
$300 -> $325
2026-01-07
Reason
Northland
Price Target
$300 -> $325
2026-01-07
maintain
Outperform
Reason
Northland raised the firm's price target on Centrus Energy to $325 from $300 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares after the company got an official award of $900M from the DOE to help jump start the domestic nuclear fuel supply chain. The firm's increased target reflects an earlier timeline to market of 2029 versus its prior 2030 forecast and the de-risking of funding, the analyst tells investors.
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