Should You Buy Kennedy-Wilson Holdings Inc (KW) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.
Conclusion
Hold
Latest Price
9.860
1 Day change
0.72%
52 Week Range
10.090
Analysis Updated At
2026/01/30
KW is not a good buy right now for an impatient investor. Price action is essentially range-bound around $9.86 with no proprietary buy signals, fundamentals weakened in the latest reported quarter (2025/Q3), and Wall Street sentiment recently deteriorated (JPM downgrade to Underweight). The only clear bullish offset is the event-driven angle (reported take-private interest) plus very strong insider buying; that makes KW more of a special-situation watch/hold than a clean, high-conviction buy at today’s price.
Technical Analysis
Trend/structure: Mixed-to-flat. Converging moving averages and RSI(6) ~51.9 indicate a neutral, non-trending tape. Momentum: MACD histogram at -0.02 is below zero but contracting, suggesting bearish pressure is fading rather than a strong upside impulse. Levels: Pivot ~9.895 (price ~9.86 is essentially at pivot). Near-term support S1 ~9.75 then S2 ~9.66; overhead resistance R1 ~10.04 then R2 ~10.13. Practical read: without a catalyst, upside is likely capped near ~10.04–10.13 while a break below ~9.75 increases downside risk.
Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals
- [AI Stock Picker](module://ai_stock_pick): No signal on given stock today.
- [SwingMax](module://swingmax): No signal on given stock recently.
Pattern-based probability (provided): 40% chance of -0.5% next day; +0.93% next week; +6.46% next month—mildly constructive longer horizon, but not strong enough to override the current lack of a trigger and weak fundamentals.
Options Data
Bullish
Open Interest Put-Call Ratio
Bullish
Option Volume Put-Call Ratio
Sentiment from options: Bullish-leaning positioning. Put/Call open interest ratio at 0.36 implies calls dominate open interest, and today’s volume was calls only (20 calls vs 0 puts), reinforcing positive near-term sentiment. Volatility setup: IV 30d ~22.66 with IV percentile ~4 and IV rank ~5.4 suggests options are priced cheaply versus their own history; however, historical volatility is very high (~84.1), meaning the underlying has been moving more than options currently imply (often seen after a big event when volatility expectations compress). Net: options positioning is supportive, but it doesn’t by itself confirm an imminent breakout in the stock.
Technical Summary
Sell
1
Buy
11
Positive Catalysts
and call-only volume today; low IV percentile/rank may attract call buyers.
on 2026-02-24 after hours—potential catalyst for re-rating if results improve or strategic updates occur.
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
with $11 PT, following an earlier PT cut to $11 from $13 (11/06/2025).
Financial Performance
Latest quarter: 2025/Q3.
• Revenue: $116.4M, down -8.71% YoY (top-line contraction).
• Net income: -$21.2M, down -72.61% YoY (worsening profitability).
• EPS: -$0.15, down -73.21% YoY.
• Gross margin: 70.19%, up +1.12% YoY (some margin resilience, but not enough to prevent a larger loss).
Overall: Growth and earnings trends weakened in 2025/Q3, which limits fundamental support for an aggressive buy “right now.”
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Recent trend: More cautious/negative.
• 2025-11-06 (JPM): Maintained Neutral but cut PT to $11 from $13 after Q3.
• 2025-11-05 (BofA): Shifted to No Rating, citing the stock no longer trading on fundamentals after disclosure of a take-private offer.
• 2025-12-18 (JPM): Downgraded to Underweight from Neutral, PT unchanged at $11, as part of a more selective 2026 REIT outlook.
Wall Street pros vs cons view (from provided notes):
Pros: Take-private process/strategic alternatives can override near-term fundamentals and support price.
Cons: Sector/rating caution and reduced conviction after Q3; downgrade indicates limited upside vs peers on a fundamentals basis.
Wall Street analysts forecast KW stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for KW is 11 USD with a low forecast of 11 USD and a high forecast of 11 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
1 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast KW stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for KW is 11 USD with a low forecast of 11 USD and a high forecast of 11 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
0 Buy
0 Hold
1 Sell
Moderate Sell
Current: 9.790
Low
11
Averages
11
High
11
Current: 9.790
Low
11
Averages
11
High
11
JPMorgan
Anthony Paolone
Neutral -> Underweight
downgrade
$11
AI Analysis
2025-12-18
Reason
JPMorgan
Anthony Paolone
Price Target
$11
AI Analysis
2025-12-18
downgrade
Neutral -> Underweight
Reason
JPMorgan analyst Anthony Paolone downgraded Kennedy Wilson to Underweight from Neutral with an unchanged price target of $11. The firm made a number of rating changes in the real estate investment trust group as part of its 2026 outlook. The changes include two upgrades and seven downgrades. The number of downgrades reflects a "more stratified ratings distribution," the analyst tells investors in a research note.
JPMorgan
Neutral
downgrade
$13 -> $11
2025-11-06
Reason
JPMorgan
Price Target
$13 -> $11
2025-11-06
downgrade
Neutral
Reason
JPMorgan lowered the firm's price target on Kennedy Wilson to $11 from $13 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares following the Q3 report.
Unlock Full Analyst Thesis， Get the complete breakdown of rating reason for KW
