Should You Buy Kimbell Royalty Partners LP (KRP) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.
Conclusion
Hold
Latest Price
13.450
1 Day change
0.07%
52 Week Range
16.990
Analysis Updated At
2026/01/30
KRP is not a good buy right now. The chart setup is still weak (bearish MACD, price below/near pivot with nearby resistance), and there are no Intellectia buy signals to justify jumping in immediately. While hedge funds are accumulating and analyst targets imply upside, the most recent rating actions skew cautious (downgrade + Neutral), and fundamentals show modest revenue growth but declining EPS. For an impatient investor, the risk/reward is not compelling enough at this exact level—better treated as a HOLD until price reclaims the pivot (~13.61) and pushes through ~13.86 with improving momentum.
Technical Analysis
Trend/Momentum: Short-term momentum is soft. MACD histogram is slightly negative (-0.00224) and negatively expanding, implying bearish momentum is still building rather than reversing. RSI(6)=36.28 is weak but not deeply oversold—consistent with a fading/down-to-sideways tape rather than a clean rebound signal.
Levels: Current price 13.44 is just above S1 (13.363) and below the pivot (13.611). That puts the stock near support but still under a key inflection point. Immediate resistance is R1 13.859; a break/hold above that would improve the near-term trend. If 13.36 fails, next support is S2 13.209.
Pattern-based odds provided: +1.07% next day, -0.4% next week, +2.74% next month—near-term chop with only modest expected drift higher.
Options Data
Bullish
Open Interest Put-Call Ratio
Bearish
Option Volume Put-Call Ratio
Positioning/Sentiment: Open interest put-call ratio at 0.38 is bullish (more calls held than puts), suggesting longer-positioning bias. However, the option volume put-call ratio at 4.92 is sharply bearish for the day (puts traded far more than calls), which often signals near-term hedging or downside speculation.
Volatility: IV percentile 11.6 / IV rank 5.37 indicates relatively cheap options vs recent history—market is not pricing a large move. That can be constructive for buyers of optionality but also signals limited urgency/conviction in a big breakout.
Technical Summary
Sell
10
Buy
2
Positive Catalysts
Hedge fund activity: Hedge funds are buying, with reported buying amount up ~3812.69% over the last quarter—clear institutional tailwind.
Income/market narrative: Recent news flow highlights rising demand for dividend-yielding stocks amid turbulence, supportive for a royalty/minerals name often viewed as income-oriented.
Analyst upside vs price: Mizuho maintained Neutral but lifted target to $17 (from $16), implying meaningful upside from 13.44 if energy sentiment improves.
Event catalyst: QDEC 2025 earnings on 2026-02-26 (pre-market). A solid print or distribution commentary could re-rate the stock quickly.
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
Technical weakness: Bearish/weak momentum (negative MACD expansion) with price still below the pivot and under nearby resistance.
Options tape conflict: Heavy put volume (put-call volume ratio 4.
signals near-term caution/hedging pressure.
Sector headwinds: KeyBanc downgrade cited choppy oil prices and expectations for minimal Permian oil growth in 2026—macro/commodity-driven overhang.
Earnings risk: With earnings approaching (Feb 26), any miss or weaker distribution outlook can pressure yield names quickly.
No supportive insider/political buys: Insiders are neutral; no congress trading data to suggest influential accumulation.
Financial Performance
Latest reported quarter: 2025/Q3.
- Revenue: $77.186M, +3.98% YoY (modest top-line growth).
- Net income: $17.012M, -2.09% YoY (slight profitability decline).
- EPS: $0.19, -13.64% YoY (notable per-share decline).
Takeaway: Growth is positive on revenue but weakening on EPS/net income, which reduces the urgency to buy aggressively without a technical turn or a clear catalyst from the upcoming earnings.
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Recent trend: Ratings/stance have become more cautious.
- 2025-11-24: KeyBanc downgraded to Sector Weight from Overweight (negative signal; no PT).
- 2025-12-12: Mizuho kept Neutral but raised PT to $17 from $16 (mildly constructive on valuation, still not a Buy).
Wall Street pros: Potential underappreciated value/upside to PTs, income appeal, and longer-term energy fundamentals.
Wall Street cons: Choppy oil environment, slower growth outlook (Permian), and a preference to stay neutral rather than recommend outright buying today.
Wall Street analysts forecast KRP stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for KRP is 17 USD with a low forecast of 12 USD and a high forecast of 24 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
6 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast KRP stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for KRP is 17 USD with a low forecast of 12 USD and a high forecast of 24 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
2 Buy
3 Hold
1 Sell
Hold
Current: 13.440
Low
12
Averages
17
High
24
Current: 13.440
Low
12
Averages
17
High
24
Mizuho
William Janela
Neutral
maintain
$16 -> $17
AI Analysis
2025-12-12
Reason
Mizuho
William Janela
Price Target
$16 -> $17
AI Analysis
2025-12-12
maintain
Neutral
Reason
Mizuho analyst William Janela raised the firm's price target on Kimbell Royalty Partners to $17 from $16 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. The firm adjusted ratings and targets in the exploration and production group as part of its 2026 outlook. While sentiment for U.S. oil and gas names is negative on oil market oversupply and high gas storage, there is "underappreciated value" in the group, particularly in exploration and production on longer-term fundamentals that could start becoming realized in 2026, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Mizuho suggests a reallocation of risk toward oil E&Ps with a selective bias in gas stocks. It turned more neutral on refining.
KeyBanc
Overweight -> Sector Weight
downgrade
$NULL
2025-11-24
Reason
KeyBanc
Price Target
$NULL
2025-11-24
downgrade
Overweight -> Sector Weight
Reason
KeyBanc downgraded Kimbell Royalty Partners to Sector Weight from Overweight without a price target. The firm cites the "choppy" oil price environment and expectations for minimal Permian oil growth in 2026 for the downgrade. The downgrade downgrade reflects challenges for smaller minerals entities, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
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