Should I Buy JXN? JXN 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy Jackson Financial Inc (JXN) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Buy

Latest Price

118.060

1 Day change

1.79%

52 Week Range

118.550

Analysis Updated At

2026/01/30

Buy now. JXN is in a bullish price structure (SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200) with supportive sentiment from options (put/call ratios < 1) and a sharp increase in hedge-fund buying. While momentum is somewhat extended near resistance (~119.6) and MACD is still slightly negative, the setup still favors upside continuation over the next several weeks, and Wall Street’s latest actions skew positive (upgrade + higher targets).

Technical Analysis

Trend/structure: Bullish. Moving averages are stacked positively (SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200), implying an established uptrend. Momentum: Mixed but improving. MACD histogram is -0.108 (still below zero) but negatively contracting, which often signals downside momentum is fading. RSI: RSI_6 at 69.109 is near the upper end of neutral (close to overbought), suggesting the stock is somewhat extended short-term. Levels: Pivot support ~114.424 (key level to hold for trend health). Near-term resistance at R2 ~119.637; the stock closed at 118.06, already above R1 (117.647) and approaching R2, so a breakout through ~119.6 would be a clear continuation signal. Pattern-based forward drift (model): Slightly soft next day (-0.45% probability-weighted), but positive bias next week (+0.78%) and next month (+4.71%). Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals - [AI Stock Picker](module://ai_stock_pick): No signal on given stock today. - [SwingMax](module://swingmax): No signal on given stock today.

Options Data

Bullish

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bullish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Sentiment: Bullish-to-neutral. Both open interest PCR (0.67) and volume PCR (0.62) are below 1, implying more call positioning than puts. Activity: Volume is elevated vs its recent norm (today vs 30-day avg ~116%), suggesting increasing attention. Volatility: IV30 ~37.41 vs HV ~36.05 (IV slightly above realized), with mid-range IV percentile (~43.6) and low IV rank (~10.59). This points to options not being unusually expensive relative to the past year—generally constructive for call buyers and for sentiment not pricing in extreme downside.

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

Hedge funds are buying aggressively (reported buying amount up ~1444.89% last quarter), which often supports price continuation.
Analyst sentiment improving: Evercore upgraded (to In Line) and Barclays reaffirmed Overweight while raising targets.
Potential fundamental catalyst flagged by analysts: possible tail-risk reduction via living benefits risk transfer (would reduce perceived VA guarantee risk).
Upcoming event: QDEC 2025 earnings on 2026-02-18 (after hours) could be a sentiment catalyst if capital/hedging results are cleaner than feared.

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Near-term technical friction: price is approaching resistance (R2 ~119.637) with RSI near 69, increasing the odds of a pause/pullback before the next leg higher.
Business/earnings quality concerns in recent quarter: large YoY declines in revenue and profitability metrics.
Sector headwinds cited by analysts: spread compression and higher technology spend; plus Jackson’s above-average tail-risk profile tied to VA guarantees/hedging (per Evercore commentary).

Financial Performance

Latest reported quarter: 2025/Q3. Revenue: $1.396B, down 34.58% YoY (sharp contraction). Net income: $65M, down 113.54% YoY. EPS: $0.92, down 114.44% YoY. Takeaway: Recent reported growth trends are clearly negative YoY in the snapshot provided, which is the main fundamental counterweight to the otherwise constructive technical/sentiment picture.

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

Recent trend: Net-positive. In early Jan 2026, Evercore upgraded JXN to In Line (PT to $118 from $110), and Barclays raised its price target to $137 (from $128) while keeping Overweight—both supportive. Other recent updates: Morgan Stanley maintained Equal Weight with targets oscillating around ~$101–$105; KBW lifted PT to $115 with Market Perform. Wall Street pros: Low multiple/valuation appeal (per Evercore), solid capital position outside the VA captive, and potential risk-transfer actions to reduce tail risk. Wall Street cons: Tail-risk sensitivity from VA guarantees/hedging and macro pressures like spread compression/tech spend. Influential trading: No recent congress trading data; insiders reported neutral; hedge funds reported as strong buyers.

5 Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast JXN stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for JXN is 115 USD with a low forecast of 100 USD and a high forecast of 137 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

1 Buy

4 Hold

0 Sell

Hold

Current: 115.980

Low

100

Averages

115

High

137

Current: 115.980

Low

100

Averages

115

High

137

Barclays

NULL -> Overweight

maintain

$128 -> $137

AI Analysis

2026-01-08

Reason

Barclays

Price Target

$128 -> $137

AI Analysis

2026-01-08

maintain

NULL -> Overweight

Reason

Barclays raised the firm's price target on Jackson Financial to $137 from $128 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm is "cautiously optimistic" on life insurers heading into 2026, saying capital strength, cash flow, and consolidation offset headwinds like spread compression and technology spend. Barclays adjusted ratings and price targets as part of its 2026 outlook.

Evercore ISI

Underperform -> In Line

upgrade

$110 -> $118

2026-01-06

Reason

Evercore ISI

Price Target

$110 -> $118

2026-01-06

upgrade

Underperform -> In Line

Reason

Evercore ISI upgraded Jackson Financial to In Line from Underperform with a price target of $118, up from $110. The company carries above-average tail risk due to short-term hedges supporting long-duration VA guarantees, but this is offset by an industry-low multiple, solid capital outside the VA captive, an expected manageable Q4 balance sheet charge, and potential tail-risk reduction from a living benefits risk transfer, the analyst tells investors in a research note.

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JXN Should I Buy

JXN Should I Buy

Should You Buy Jackson Financial Inc (JXN) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Technical Analysis

Options Data

Technical Summary

Positive Catalysts

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Financial Performance

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

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