Should I Buy JEF? JEF 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy Jefferies Financial Group Inc (JEF) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Buy

Latest Price

61.200

1 Day change

-1.05%

52 Week Range

77.390

Analysis Updated At

2026/01/29

Buy now, leaning on a support-level entry. JEF is trading at 61.2, just above first support (S1=60.7). While near-term technical momentum is still bearish, options positioning is strongly call-skewed and Wall Street has recently turned more constructive with multiple upgrades/raised targets tied to a strengthening M&A/underwriting cycle. With no Intellectia AI Stock Picker or SwingMax signal today, this is not a "must-buy" momentum setup, but for an impatient buyer the current price area offers a reasonable entry close to support with clear upside implied by recent targets (mid/high-70s to 97).

Technical Analysis

Trend/Momentum: Bearish-to-neutral in the short term. MACD histogram is negative (-0.324) and expanding lower, indicating downside momentum is still building. RSI(6) at 37.86 is soft (approaching oversold but not a clear reversal signal). Moving averages are converging, consistent with consolidation after weakness rather than a confirmed uptrend. Key levels: Pivot=62.438 is the near-term reclaim level for bullish confirmation. Support S1=60.7 (then S2=59.626). Resistance R1=64.176 (then R2=65.25). Given price (61.2) sits just above S1, the technical setup is a "support buy" rather than a breakout buy. Quant pattern read-through: Similar-pattern stats imply mild downside next week (-3.36%) but a positive 1-month bias (+6.48%), aligning with a choppy near-term tape and better intermediate upside if the cycle narrative holds. Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals - [AI Stock Picker](module://ai_stock_pick): No signal on given stock today. - [SwingMax](module://swingmax): No signal on given stock recently.

Options Data

Bullish

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bullish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Sentiment/positioning: Bullish skew. Put/Call open interest ratio at 0.52 and put/call volume ratio at 0.2 indicate calls are dominating both positioning and daily flow. Volatility/pricing: Implied vol (30D) ~51.09 vs historical vol ~62.91, and IV percentile is high (89.2), suggesting options are priced richly versus their own history—often consistent with event/uncertainty being priced in. Liquidity/activity: Today’s option volume (3,937) is below the 30D average (75.74% of avg), so it’s bullish skew but not a high-volume "capitulation" or "chase" day. Open interest is elevated (today vs OI avg 108.36%), consistent with established positioning rather than purely day-trader flow.

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

1) Analyst-driven cycle tailwinds: Multiple recent upgrades/raised targets cite a rebound in M&A and underwriting activity as a catalyst.
2) Reduced worry narrative: Morgan Stanley flagged "overblown concerns" around First Brands and expects further share gains.
3) Medium-term technical setup: Price is near defined support (60.7), which can attract buyers looking for a rebound entry.

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

1) Momentum still weak: MACD is bearishly expanding and price is below the pivot (62.438), so near-term downside risk remains if support breaks.
2) Legal overhang headline: Rosen Law Firm investigation (2026-01-23) can pressure sentiment and create headline risk.
3) First Brands bankruptcy headlines: Ongoing negotiations for financial assistance (2026-01-27) keep a cloud over any exposure/perception tied to that situation.
4) Options are expensive (high IV percentile): Rich option pricing often reflects elevated uncertainty in the near term.

Financial Performance

Latest quarter (2025/Q4): Revenue surged to 5.58B (+103.62% YoY), showing a sharp top-line rebound. Profitability, however, was weaker: net income fell to 190.89M (-7.58% YoY) and EPS is shown as down -100% YoY (reported as 0 in the snapshot), indicating either non-recurring charges, accounting impacts, or margin/expense pressure despite strong revenue. Gross margin improved to 81.94 (+32.27% YoY), which is a positive quality signal, but the earnings conversion is the key watch item going forward.

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

Recent trend: Clearly improving and bullish. - Morgan Stanley upgraded to Overweight and raised PT to $78 (from $74), citing a strengthening M&A cycle and diminished concern around First Brands plus partnership positives. - UBS initiated/assumed coverage with Buy and a $76 PT, emphasizing strong sector fundamentals and margin expansion potential. - Oppenheimer reiterated Outperform and lifted PT sharply to $97 (from $81), framing 2026–2027 as a strong growth trajectory with M&A/underwriting rebound as catalysts (while modeling a complete impairment of a Point Bonita investment). Wall Street pros: Stronger capital markets cycle, improving deal activity, and constructive firm-specific positioning/partnerships. Wall Street cons: Specific investment/impairment risk and lingering First Brands-related concerns/headlines.

5 Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast JEF stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for JEF is 72.79 USD with a low forecast of 55 USD and a high forecast of 97 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

4 Buy

1 Hold

0 Sell

Strong Buy

Current: 61.850

Low

Averages

72.79

High

Current: 61.850

Low

Averages

72.79

High

Oppenheimer

Outperform

maintain

$81 -> $97

AI Analysis

2025-12-11

Reason

Oppenheimer

Price Target

$81 -> $97

AI Analysis

2025-12-11

maintain

Outperform

Reason

Oppenheimer raised the firm's price target on Jefferies Financial to $97 from $81 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares ahead of the fiscal Q4 report. The firm believes the company's "strong growth trajectory remains in place" for 2026 and 2027. Opco assumes Jefferies will completely impair its $113M investment in the Point Bonita Funds, which takes down its earnings per share estimate for the quarter to 80c. It sees the rebound in mergers and underwriting activity as catalysts for the stock.

UBS

Michael Brown

initiated

$76

2025-12-11

Reason

UBS

Michael Brown

Price Target

$76

2025-12-11

initiated

Reason

UBS analyst Michael Brown assumed coverage of Jefferies Financial with a Buy rating and $76 price target, noting strong sector fundamentals across 20 U.S. asset managers and brokers despite more mixed views on valuations and consensus expectations.The outlook favors undervalued growth, disciplined capital allocation, and firms positioned for margin expansion, while secular tailwinds support wealth brokers and independent investment banks whose robust earnings growth appears partly priced in, the analyst tells investors in a research note.

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JEF Should I Buy

JEF Should I Buy

Should You Buy Jefferies Financial Group Inc (JEF) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Technical Analysis

Options Data

Technical Summary

Positive Catalysts

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Financial Performance

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

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