Should You Buy JAKKS Pacific Inc (JAKK) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.
Conclusion
Sell
Latest Price
18.800
1 Day change
0.59%
52 Week Range
35.790
Analysis Updated At
2026/01/29
JAKK is not a good buy right now for an impatient trader. The technical setup is slipping (bearish MACD, price below pivot), fundamentals in the latest reported quarter (2025/Q3) deteriorated sharply YoY, and the next earnings (QDEC 2025 on 2026-02-24) is expected to be loss-making (Est EPS -0.82), which is a near-term headline risk. Options positioning is bullish (very low put/call OI ratio), but that looks more like speculative call interest than a confirmed uptrend. Net: avoid new entry here; if you already hold, this is more of an exit/trim than an add.
Technical Analysis
Price/levels: Last ~18.56, below the pivot 18.959, implying a slightly bearish to range-bound posture. Immediate support sits at S1 18.387 then S2 18.034; resistance is R1 19.531 then R2 19.885.
Momentum: MACD histogram is -0.0537 and negatively expanding, signaling bearish momentum building. RSI(6) ~50.9 is neutral—no oversold bounce signal.
Trend/structure: Moving averages are converging, which typically aligns with consolidation; however, the bearish MACD plus price below pivot tilts the consolidation to the downside unless it reclaims ~18.96 and then breaks 19.53.
**Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals**
- [AI Stock Picker](module://ai_stock_pick): no signal on given stock today.
- [SwingMax](module://swingmax): No signal on given stock recently.
Options Data
Bullish
Open Interest Put-Call Ratio
Bullish
Option Volume Put-Call Ratio
Sentiment from options: Open-interest put/call of 0.12 is strongly call-skewed (bullish positioning). Volume put/call of 0.64 is also call-leaning on the day.
Volatility: 30D IV ~63.99 vs historical vol ~46.79, with IV percentile ~69—options are priced rich, implying the market expects sizable movement (often around earnings/seasonality). Activity is elevated (today’s volume far above the 30D average), reinforcing that traders are positioning for a move, but not guaranteeing direction in the stock.
Takeaway: Options sentiment is bullish, but the underlying chart/fundamentals do not confirm a clean long entry at this moment.
Holiday/seasonality angle: as a toy company, sentiment can improve into key retail periods, and any earnings/forward commentary could re-rate the stock.
Small-cap nature can amplify upside if earnings/guide surprises.
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
Technical momentum is weakening: bearish MACD histogram expanding and price below the pivot (18.959).
Earnings catalyst risk ahead: QDEC 2025 earnings on 2026-02-24 after hours with an EPS estimate of -0.82 (headline downside risk).
Latest reported quarter (2025/Q3) showed steep YoY contraction across revenue, profitability, EPS, and gross margin.
News feed provided does not contain JAKK-specific positive catalysts (items shown are about other companies), so there’s no supportive event-driven tailwind in the dataset.
No supportive signal from Intellectia modules today (no AI Stock Picker / no SwingMax).
Financial Performance
Latest quarter: 2025/Q3.
Growth/profitability trend (YoY): Revenue 211.21M (-34.33%), Net Income 19.892M (-61.95%), EPS 1.74 (-62.50%), Gross Margin 31.96% (-5.47%).
Interpretation: Material deceleration and margin compression in the latest reported quarter—this weakens the fundamental backdrop going into the next earnings season (QDEC 2025).
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
No analyst rating or price target change data was provided, so a trend in upgrades/downgrades cannot be confirmed. From a ‘Wall Street pros/cons’ perspective based on the available dataset: Pros would be potential seasonal/earnings upside and call-skewed options positioning; cons are the sharp YoY financial declines, bearish momentum signals, and an upcoming earnings event with a negative EPS estimate.
Influential/political trading: No recent congress trading data available; hedge funds and insiders are reported neutral with no significant recent trends.
Wall Street analysts forecast JAKK stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for JAKK is 27 USD with a low forecast of 27 USD and a high forecast of 27 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
1 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast JAKK stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for JAKK is 27 USD with a low forecast of 27 USD and a high forecast of 27 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
