Should I Buy IPAR? IPAR 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy Interparfums Inc (IPAR) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Hold

Latest Price

95.550

1 Day change

0.33%

52 Week Range

148.150

Analysis Updated At

2026/01/29

IPAR is not a good buy right now at ~$95.54. Despite solid license-extension news and modest Q3 growth, the technical setup is neutral (not a clear uptrend) while options positioning is decisively bearish (very high put/call ratios) and near-term upside is capped by resistance around ~$98.9–$101.7. With no proprietary buy signals today and bearish derivatives sentiment, the risk/reward is not attractive for an impatient buyer entering at current levels.

Technical Analysis

Trend/Setup: Neutral-to-slightly-bullish but not a clean breakout. MACD histogram is positive (0.502) but contracting, implying upside momentum is fading rather than accelerating. RSI(6) ~59.7 is neutral (not oversold), so there’s no “dip-buy” technical edge. Moving averages are converging, consistent with consolidation/range trading. Key levels: Pivot ~94.37 (near current price, suggesting a balanced market). Immediate resistance R1 ~98.88, then R2 ~101.67; support S1 ~89.86. With price sitting just above the pivot and below resistance, the chart favors chop/range behavior rather than a high-conviction upside move. Pattern-based short-term odds: The provided pattern model suggests a positive drift (80% chance of modest gains: ~+2.74% next day, +1.6% next week, +9.63% next month), but this is not supported by today’s options sentiment (which leans strongly defensive). Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals - [AI Stock Picker](module://ai_stock_pick): No signal on given stock today. - [SwingMax](module://swingmax): No signal on given stock today.

Options Data

Bearish

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bearish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Sentiment/positioning: Strongly bearish/defensive. Open interest put/call of 2.63 means materially more puts are held than calls. Even more notable, today’s option volume put/call of 7.0 indicates put activity dominated trading (hedging/speculation skewed negative). Volatility: IV(30d) ~30.05 vs historical vol ~28.41, and IV percentile ~97.2 suggests options are priced for elevated moves vs the past year—often seen when the market is nervous or expects an event-driven move. Volume is low in absolute terms (8 contracts) but still skewed sharply to puts, so directionality (bearish bias) matters more than size. Takeaway: Derivatives traders are positioned cautiously; this is not the typical backdrop for an urgent long entry at resistance-adjacent levels.

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

- 2026-01-28: Secured a 20-year exclusive Nautica fragrance license; projected annual sales >$70M (long-duration revenue runway).
- 2026-01-27 to 2026-01-26: Extended Guess license for 15 years; reinforces portfolio stability and brand continuity.
- Company narrative remains “asset-light/flexible model” (per bullish initiation), supportive for margins/cash generation over cycles.
- Upcoming earnings: QDEC 2025 results on 2026-02-24 (after hours) can act as a catalyst if guidance/holiday demand surprises positively.

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

- Options market is signaling meaningful downside hedging (put/call ratios extremely elevated), which often precedes choppy-to-down price action.
- Momentum is not expanding (MACD positive but contracting; moving averages converged), increasing the odds of range trading rather than a breakout.
- Analyst downgrade risk: BWS Financial moved to Neutral with an $85 target and explicitly expects challenges to extend into 2026; that narrative can pressure multiples.
- Macro/industry note from Canaccord: luxury fragrance growth moderating; retailer destocking and consumer trade-down/selectivity can weigh on near-term demand.
- No supportive “smart money” surge: hedge funds and insiders are reported Neutral; no recent Congress trading data to corroborate a high-conviction buy signal.

Financial Performance

Latest quarter: 2025/Q3. Revenue grew to ~$429.6M (+1.17% YoYoY), while profitability improved faster than sales: net income ~$65.8M (+5.70% YoY) and EPS $2.05 (+6.22% YoY). Gross margin declined to ~55.43% (-0.75 YoY), suggesting some cost/mix pressure even as earnings rose. Overall: steady but not high-growth; earnings growth is positive, but margin slippage supports a more cautious near-term stance.

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

Recent trend: Mixed and less exuberant. Canaccord kept a Buy but slashed the price target to $123 from $168 (recognizing moderation and uncertainty). BWS Financial downgraded to Neutral with an $85 target, arguing there’s no clear catalyst beyond low valuation and expecting a trading range. Offsetting that, Berenberg initiated with a Buy and $103 target, highlighting long runway and the asset-light model. Wall Street pros: durable licensing model, scalable/asset-light structure, long growth runway in fragrances. Wall Street cons: near-term category moderation/destocking, fewer obvious catalysts, and a credible bear/base case that the stock ranges for quarters.

5 Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast IPAR stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for IPAR is 108.6 USD with a low forecast of 85 USD and a high forecast of 125 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

4 Buy

1 Hold

0 Sell

Strong Buy

Current: 95.240

Low

Averages

108.6

High

125

Current: 95.240

Low

Averages

108.6

High

125

BWS Financial

Hamed Khorsand

Buy -> Neutral

downgrade

$85

AI Analysis

2025-11-21

Reason

BWS Financial

Hamed Khorsand

Price Target

$85

AI Analysis

2025-11-21

downgrade

Buy -> Neutral

Reason

BWS Financial analyst Hamed Khorsand downgraded Interparfums to Neutral from Buy with an $85 price target. Interparfums has faced a challenging 2025 and the company is now anticipating its difficulties to continue into 2026, notes the analyst, who argues that "value cannot be the sole reason to own a stock." The firm, which does not see a catalyst beyond the historically low valuation as a reason to buy the stock, thinks shares could be in a trading range for the next few quarters.

Berenberg

initiated

$103

2025-11-21

Reason

Berenberg

Price Target

$103

2025-11-21

initiated

Reason

Berenberg initiated coverage of Interparfums with a Buy rating and $103 price target. The company offers exposure to just one beauty category, and fragrance, and it just a "small" part of a $43B market, which offers "a substantial growth runway," the analyst tells investors in a research note. The firm believes Interparfums' "highly flexible "and asset light business model has proved "disruptive." It sees an attractive entry point at current share levels.

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IPAR Should I Buy

IPAR Should I Buy

Should You Buy Interparfums Inc (IPAR) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Technical Analysis

Options Data

Technical Summary

Positive Catalysts

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Financial Performance

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

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