Should You Buy InflaRx NV (IFRX) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.
Conclusion
Sell
Latest Price
0.900
1 Day change
-1.21%
52 Week Range
2.770
Analysis Updated At
2026/01/29
Not a good buy right now for a Beginner, long-term investor who wants to enter immediately. IFRX is in a clear bearish price trend near support, has no proprietary buy signals today, and faces a realistic near-term dilution/financing overhang highlighted by the most recent downgrade. While the drug-data narrative is promising and options positioning is very call-heavy, the setup is still skewed toward speculative trading rather than a clean long-term entry.
Technical Analysis
Trend is bearish. Price ~0.9115 closed -5.77% and sits essentially on S1 support (0.914); next support is S2 ~0.865. Moving averages are stacked bearishly (SMA_200 > SMA_20 > SMA_5), indicating sustained downside momentum. MACD histogram is negative (-0.00874) and expanding lower, confirming weakening momentum. RSI(6) ~30.9 is near oversold territory, which can allow short bounces, but the broader trend remains down unless price reclaims pivot (~0.992) and then R1 (~1.07).
Options Data
Bullish
Open Interest Put-Call Ratio
Bullish
Option Volume Put-Call Ratio
Options positioning is extremely call-skewed: put/call open interest ratio 0.01 (calls dominate), and put volume is 0 with call volume 301. Implied volatility is very elevated (IV30 ~595.71) with IV percentile ~96.8, implying the market is pricing large moves and traders are positioned more for upside/speculation than hedging. This reflects bullish sentiment, but it’s also consistent with a high-risk, event-driven biotech profile.
Technical Summary
Sell
10
Buy
4
Positive Catalysts
Phase 2a INF904 data in hidradenitis suppurativa (HS) and chronic spontaneous urticaria (CSU) was described as unexpectedly positive/strong by multiple firms; several raised price targets materially (e.g., Guggenheim to $22, Lucid to $24, Cantor to $8, Oppenheimer to $7, Raymond James to $9). Hedge fund activity trend shows buying increased ~425% over the last quarter. Pattern-based forecast provided indicates a statistical bias to upside over 1 week/1 month (+3.14% / +11.91%), which supports the possibility of a rebound from depressed levels.
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
Near-term technical picture is decisively bearish (downtrend, negative MACD expansion, price sitting on support after a -5.77% day). Analyst downgrade from Leerink (Outperform -> Market Perform) with price target cut to $2 from $5 explicitly cites likely future financing and dilution risk at the current valuation. No supportive news flow in the last week to act as an immediate catalyst. Financials show very low revenue base and losses, reinforcing dependence on funding and clinical progress.
Financial Performance
Latest quarter: 2025/Q3. Revenue fell to 23,830 (-80.75% YoY). Net income was -12,261,089 (down -29.73% YoY). EPS was -0.18 (down -40.00% YoY). Gross margin reported at 98.6 (down -37.83% YoY). Overall: operating profile remains loss-making with shrinking revenue, so the equity story is still primarily driven by clinical milestones and financing conditions rather than steady business growth.
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Recent analyst trend is mixed but notable: a wave of upgrades/target raises followed the positive Phase 2a INF904 data (multiple Outperform/Buy-style stances with sharply higher targets), but Leerink then downgraded to Market Perform and cut its target to $2, citing dilution/financing concerns despite acknowledging compelling HS data. Wall Street pros (bull case): INF904 could be best-in-class oral therapy with strong early efficacy/safety and large HS market potential. Cons view: funding needs and dilution risk may cap near-term upside and pressure the stock even with good data.
Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals
- [AI Stock Picker](module://ai_stock_pick): No signal on given stock today.
- [SwingMax](module://swingmax): No signal on given stock recently.
Politicians/Congress: No recent congress trading data available (last 90 days), and no notable politician activity provided.
Wall Street analysts forecast IFRX stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for IFRX is 12.67 USD with a low forecast of 6 USD and a high forecast of 24 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
8 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast IFRX stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for IFRX is 12.67 USD with a low forecast of 6 USD and a high forecast of 24 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
6 Buy
2 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 0.911
Low
6
Averages
12.67
High
24
Current: 0.911
Low
6
Averages
12.67
High
24
Leerink
Outperform -> Market Perform
downgrade
$2
AI Analysis
2025-12-03
Reason
Leerink
Price Target
$2
AI Analysis
2025-12-03
downgrade
Outperform -> Market Perform
Reason
Leerink downgraded InflaRx to Market Perform from Outperform with a $2 price target.
Leerink
Joseph Schwartz
Outperform -> Market Perform
downgrade
$5 -> $2
2025-12-03
Reason
Leerink
Joseph Schwartz
Price Target
$5 -> $2
2025-12-03
downgrade
Outperform -> Market Perform
Reason
Leerink analyst Joseph Schwartz downgraded InflaRx to Market Perform from Outperform with a price target of $2, down from $5. InflaRx delivered unexpectedly positive Phase 2a data for INF904 in Hidradenitis Suppurativa and Chronic Spontaneous Urticaria, with the HS results looking compelling enough to justify a Phase 2b trial, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Despite management's view that its EUR 44.4M cash balance can fund operations into 2027, further financing appears likely and could be notably dilutive at the current valuation.
Unlock Full Analyst Thesis， Get the complete breakdown of rating reason for IFRX
