Hilltop Holdings Inc. (HTH) Q4 2025 Earnings Call Transcript
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Overview
The earnings call presents a strong financial performance with increased revenues in key areas, a high capital ratio, and positive shareholder return plans. The Q&A section confirms a stable outlook for 2026 with strategic growth plans and confidence in core business lines. Despite some uncertainties in rate impacts and competitive pressures, the overall sentiment is positive, supported by strong earnings, optimistic guidance, and significant shareholder returns, suggesting a stock price increase of 2% to 8%.
Key Financial Performance
Net Interest Margin (NIM) Increased by 12 basis points year-over-year at PlainsCapital Bank due to proactive management of deposit costs.
Net Revenue at Hilltop Securities $501 million with a 13.5% pretax margin. Reasons include strong execution in core competencies.
Net Income $166 million for the full year 2025, a 46% increase year-over-year. Reasons include increased net interest income and net interest margin, as well as expense optimization.
Net Income for Q4 2025 Approximately $42 million or $0.69 per diluted share. Return on average assets was 1.1%, and return on average equity was 7.6%.
PlainsCapital Bank Pretax Income $43.5 million in Q4 2025 with a 1.05% return on average assets. Reasons include active management of deposit costs and strong loan growth.
Core Deposits at PlainsCapital Bank Increased, allowing the bank to return $225 million of sweep deposits to its broker-dealer. Sweep deposit balance is now down 82% relative to year-end 2024.
Provision Expense at PlainsCapital Bank $7.9 million in Q4 2025, driven by two stressed auto note credits.
PrimeLending Pretax Loss $5 million in Q4 2025. Reasons include challenging affordability, low new home inventory, and increased ownership expenses.
HilltopSecurities Pretax Income $26 million in Q4 2025 on net revenues of $138 million, with an 18% pretax margin. Reasons include increased industry issuance volumes and higher lock volumes.
Wealth Management Net Revenues Increased by 16% to $53 million in Q4 2025 compared to Q4 2024. Reasons include growth from advisory fees on higher managed balances and improved transaction revenues.
Fixed Income Services Net Revenues Showed a modest increase year-over-year due to improved sales and trading revenues.
Common Equity Tier 1 Capital Ratio 19.7% at year-end 2025.
Tangible Book Value Per Share Increased by $0.60 to $31.83 in Q4 2025.
Consolidated Income Attributable to Common Stockholders $41.6 million in Q4 2025, equating to $0.69 per diluted share. Reasons include a 7% growth in net interest income and an 11% growth in noninterest income.
Allowance for Credit Losses Decreased by $3.6 million to $91.5 million in Q4 2025. Reasons include net charge-offs of $11.5 million, primarily from two large auto note credits.
Net Interest Income $112.5 million in Q4 2025, a $7 million increase year-over-year. Reasons include solid management of deposit costs and growth in lower-cost deposits.
Noninterest Income $217 million in Q4 2025, an 11% increase year-over-year. Reasons include higher mortgage-related income and fees, as well as increased revenues in public finance, wealth management, and structured finance.
Noninterest Expenses Increased by $6 million year-over-year to $269 million in Q4 2025. Reasons include higher variable compensation expenses and severance-related costs.
HFI Loans Increased by $361 million year-over-year in Q4 2025, driven by growth in commercial real estate lending.
Net Charge-Offs $11.5 million in Q4 2025, primarily due to two large auto note credits.
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Operating Highlights
Net Interest Margin (NIM): PlainsCapital Bank increased NIM by 12 basis points compared to the prior year through proactive management of deposit costs.
Mortgage Origination Volume: PrimeLending achieved a seasonally adjusted origination volume of $2.4 billion in Q4 2025.
Public Finance Services: Hilltop Securities achieved a 20% year-over-year increase in net revenues in public finance services.
Loan Growth: PlainsCapital Bank showed strong signs of core loan growth supported by a robust pipeline.
Wealth Management Revenue: Hilltop Securities' wealth management net revenues increased by 16% to $53 million compared to Q4 2024.
Expense Optimization: PrimeLending executed several operational cost reductions to optimize the business and improve efficiency.
Deposit Management: PlainsCapital Bank actively managed deposit costs, leading to a decline in average interest-bearing deposit costs by 21 basis points in Q4 2025.
Capital Return to Shareholders: Hilltop returned $229 million to stockholders in 2025 through share repurchases and dividends.
Operational Leverage: Hilltop achieved positive operating leverage of 6% for the year 2025, with revenues growing by 8% and expenses by 2%.
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Risk or Challenges
Interest Rate Environment: The decline in short-term interest rates and the Federal Reserve's potential further rate cuts could impact net interest income and deposit costs, creating challenges in maintaining profitability.
Mortgage Industry Challenges: PrimeLending faces headwinds from challenging affordability, low new home inventory, and increased ownership expenses, which continue to weigh on industry volumes and margins.
Credit Risks: The company recorded $7.8 million in provision for credit loss, driven by net charge-offs and a modest deterioration in the economic condition outlook. Specific issues include $9.5 million in charge-offs related to two large auto note credits.
Competitive Pressures: Increased competition within the banking markets could impact loan growth and deposit acquisition, despite the company's efforts to expand lender headcount and maintain a healthy loan pipeline.
Economic Uncertainty: Uncertainty in the broader economy, including inflation and interest rate fluctuations, poses risks to the company's financial performance and strategic planning.
Operational Efficiency: While cost reductions have been implemented, ongoing inflationary pressures and the need for further operational optimization could challenge expense management.
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Guidance & Outlook
Interest Rate Environment: The company expects the interest-bearing deposit beta to fall to 60%-65% if the Federal Reserve reduces rates an additional 2-3 times during this rate cycle.
Loan Growth: Hilltop anticipates full-year average bank loan growth of 4%-6% in 2026, excluding the impact of loans retained from PrimeLending and mortgage warehouse lending.
Deposit Costs: Interest-bearing deposit costs are expected to move somewhat lower over the coming quarters and then stabilize until further Federal Reserve rate changes.
Noninterest Expenses: Expenses other than variable compensation are projected to remain stable between $180 million and $190 million per quarter.
PrimeLending Performance: The first quarter of 2026 is expected to be a seasonally slow home buying environment, impacting origination volumes. The company will continue to optimize costs and invest in growing production headcount and origination volumes.
HilltopSecurities Performance: The company will focus on executing strategic initiatives to be a full solution provider to clients, with continued growth in public finance, wealth management, and structured finance.
Economic Uncertainty: The company acknowledges ongoing uncertainty in the market regarding interest rates, inflation, and overall economic health, which may impact its operations and outlook.
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Shareholder Return Plan
Total dividends returned to stockholders in 2025: $229 million
Dividends returned to stockholders in Q4 2025: $11 million
Total shares repurchased in 2025: $229 million (combined with dividends)
Shares repurchased in Q4 2025: $61 million
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Key Q&A
Q:Can you speak to the business lines and expectations for broker-dealer fees in 2026, and is 13.5% pretax margin a good baseline for 2026?
A:The management expressed confidence in the HilltopSecurities franchise and its four primary business lines: Public Finance, Fixed Income Services, Wealth Management, and Structured Finance. Public Finance is expected to remain strong, Fixed Income Services is showing improvement, Wealth Management is market-dependent but improving, and Structured Finance is expected to benefit from a robust market for first-time homebuyers. Regarding pretax margin, 13.5% has been consistent over the last two years, and the guidance remains in the range of 10%-14%.
Q:How would 1 or 2 Fed rate cuts in 2026 impact NII and broker-dealer fees?
A:Management stated that broker-dealer fees would be affected by various factors, with some areas improving and others, like sweep income, potentially pressured. The impact on NII is modeled at about $4.5 million annually for every 25 basis point rate change, with overall asset sensitivity reduced to just over 4%.
Q:Can you discuss capital priorities, including the dividend increase, buyback authorization, and M&A opportunities?
A:Management highlighted an 11% dividend increase and a $125 million share repurchase authorization, which is consistent with prior years. They are evaluating acquisition opportunities while focusing on organic growth and leveraging market dislocations caused by M&A activity in Texas.
Q:Have there been any discussions or outreach from larger banks regarding potential partnerships or acquisitions?
A:Management stated they remain open to opportunities that benefit shareholders but noted their business model limits the universe of potential attractive partners. They did not disclose any specific discussions or outreach.
Q:What is the expectation for core margin compression and NII in the first quarter of 2026?
A:Management expects deposit costs to remain stable and noted solid loan growth. However, they acknowledged that their asset-sensitive balance sheet would be impacted by Fed rate reductions. They view the Fed's inaction in January as constructive for the first quarter.
Q:What is the loan pipeline entering 2026, and what is the competitive environment for loan pricing?
A:The loan pipeline entering 2026 is approximately $2.6 billion, which is high for the company. Management is optimistic about organic loan growth and expanding client reach. Loan pricing is under pressure, with yields down about 35 basis points due to the rate environment.
Q:What are the expectations for gain on sale margins in the mortgage business in 2026?
A:Management expects total revenue from gain on sale margins and mortgage origination fees to remain stable, around 350-360 basis points. They anticipate steady improvement in the mortgage market rather than a significant increase.
Q:Review of Unclear Management Responses
A:Management avoided directly answering whether there had been any formal or informal outreach from larger banks regarding potential partnerships or acquisitions. They provided a general statement about being open to opportunities but did not disclose specific details.
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Earnings Word Cloud
The most frequently occurring keywords in this quarter's earning call
Bank deposit
Bank service
FOMC rate
Hilltop Securities
Hilltop banking
Hilltop work
HilltopSecurities
Income Services
NIM basis
PrimeLending combination
PrimeLending origination
PrimeLending platform
Results provision
Securities core
Securities firm
affordability home
balance end
balance transaction
bank lender
bank sweep
bank tailwind
banking core
banking peer
base franchise
basis Wealth
brand reputation
business PlainsCapital
buying environment
colleague Hilltop
combination expense
expansion
headcount
headwind
industry volume
mortgage rate
perspective decline
preface presentation
rate treasury
term interest
trading revenue
treasury note
yield curve
HTH Transcript
Hilltop Holdings Inc. (HTH) Q4 2025 Earnings Call Transcript
Positive1-30
The earnings call presents a strong financial performance with increased revenues in key areas, a high capital ratio, and positive shareholder return plans. The Q&A section confirms a stable outlook for 2026 with strategic growth plans and confidence in core business lines. Despite some uncertainties in rate impacts and competitive pressures, the overall sentiment is positive, supported by strong earnings, optimistic guidance, and significant shareholder returns, suggesting a stock price increase of 2% to 8%.
Hilltop Holdings Inc. (HTH) Q3 2025 Earnings Call Transcript
Unknown10-24
The earnings call summary presents a mixed picture. Financial performance shows some positive aspects like increased net interest income and credit loss reversal, but challenges in mortgage business and pretax loss for PrimeLending weigh negatively. The Q&A reveals cautious sentiment, with no increase in NII guidance and some subprime exposure concerns. Share buybacks and M&A exploration are positives, but lack of clarity on certain issues tempers enthusiasm. Considering the market cap, the stock price is likely to remain neutral in the short term.
Hilltop Holdings Inc. (HTH) Q2 2025 Earnings Call Transcript
Unknown7-25
The earnings call summary indicates mixed signals: strong financial performance in some areas, like net interest income growth and credit loss reversal, but challenges in mortgage origination. The Q&A reveals concerns about elevated expenses, unclear guidance, and potential risks. Despite positive factors like share repurchases and improved asset quality, the lack of clear guidance and expected NII decline tempers enthusiasm. With a market cap of $1.97 billion, the stock reaction is likely muted, resulting in a neutral prediction.
Earnings call transcript: Hilltop Holdings Q1 2025 earnings beat forecasts
Unknown4-25
The earnings call shows mixed results: stable net income, improved financial metrics, and shareholder returns are positive. However, challenges in credit risks, mortgage market, and fixed income services, along with economic uncertainties, weigh negatively. The Q&A reveals management's cautious outlook and lack of clarity on key issues, further tempering optimism. Given the market cap, the stock is likely to remain neutral in the short term, with no major catalysts for a significant move.
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HTH Report
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