Should I Buy HRTX? HRTX 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy Heron Therapeutics Inc (HRTX) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Hold

Latest Price

1.340

1 Day change

0.75%

52 Week Range

2.680

Analysis Updated At

2026/01/29

HRTX is not a good buy right now for a Beginner, long-term investor with $50k–$100k. The stock is in a weak downtrend (bearish MACD expansion, recent -5% regular-session drop) and options positioning shows heavy put open interest with extremely elevated implied volatility, which typically signals uncertainty rather than a clean long-term entry. With no fresh news catalysts this week and no proprietary buy signals today, the risk/reward is not compelling for an impatient buyer at this moment.

Technical Analysis

Price/Trend: HRTX closed at 1.335 after a -5.00% regular-session drop and -1.43% pre-market indication. Momentum remains bearish. Indicators: - MACD: Histogram -0.011 and negatively expanding => downside momentum is strengthening. - RSI(6): 29.489 => oversold/near-oversold conditions; this can support a short-term bounce, but it is not a confirmed trend reversal. - Moving Averages: Converging => no clear bullish crossover; suggests consolidation within a broader weak tape. Key Levels: - Immediate support: S1 1.343 (price is slightly below/around this area) and S2 1.293 (next downside level). - Resistance: Pivot 1.423, then R1 1.503. Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals - [AI Stock Picker](module://ai_stock_pick): No signal on given stock today. - [SwingMax](module://swingmax): No signal on given stock recently. Interpretation: The setup is more consistent with a fragile/weak trend attempting to base near 1.29–1.34 support, not a confirmed long-term uptrend entry.

Options Data

Bearish

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bullish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Sentiment/Positioning: - Open Interest Put/Call = 1.98: materially more puts than calls outstanding => defensive/bearish positioning or heavy hedging. - Option Volume Put/Call = 0.25: today’s volume skewed to calls, but total volume is extremely small (5 contracts), so it’s not a reliable sentiment read. - Implied Volatility (30D) ~259.92% with IV percentile 95.6: very elevated option pricing, implying the market expects large moves/uncertainty. Takeaway: Options markets are priced for instability; the heavier put open interest suggests caution rather than broad bullish conviction.

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

3) Analyst remains constructive: Jefferies maintains a Buy rating (despite lowering PT).

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

1) Weak technical momentum: bearish MACD expanding plus a sharp -5% daily drop suggests sellers still in control.
2) Options positioning: high put open interest (P/C OI 1.98) and extremely high IV point to uncertainty and downside hedging.
3) Profitability still negative: company remains loss-making despite improvement.
4) Margin pressure: gross margin fell to 68.82% (down YoY).
5) No near-term news catalysts in the last week; absent fresh drivers, the chart can continue to drift lower.

Financial Performance

Latest quarter: 2025/Q3. - Revenue: 38.213M, +16.47% YoY (growth positive). - Net income: -17.495M, improved +260.87% YoY (loss narrowing materially, but still negative). - EPS: -0.10, improved +233.33% YoY (better, still a loss). - Gross margin: 68.82%, down -3.30% YoY (some margin compression). Overall: Growth is improving and losses are narrowing, but the company has not yet reached profitability and margins weakened YoY.

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

Recent trend: Limited data provided; latest update (2025-11-04) shows Jefferies kept a Buy rating but cut its price target from $6 to $5. Wall Street pro view (pros/cons based on provided note): - Pros: Analyst highlights Zynrelef revenue performance (Q3 net revenue slightly ahead of consensus) and expects contribution from the oncology franchise. - Cons: Price target cut suggests tempered expectations/discount-rate or execution risk remains; the market price (~$1.33) indicates investors are still skeptical. Politicians/Congress: No recent congress trading data available in the last 90 days; no politician/influential-figure activity provided.

4 Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast HRTX stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for HRTX is 4.5 USD with a low forecast of 3 USD and a high forecast of 6 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

4 Buy

0 Hold

0 Sell

Strong Buy

Current: 1.330

Low

Averages

4.5

High

Current: 1.330

Low

Averages

4.5

High

Jefferies

Buy

downgrade

$6 -> $5

AI Analysis

2025-11-04

Reason

Jefferies

Price Target

$6 -> $5

AI Analysis

2025-11-04

downgrade

Buy

Reason

Jefferies lowered the firm's price target on Heron Therapeutics to $5 from $6 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. Zynrelef delivered Q3 net revenue of $9.3M, ahead of the consensus view of $9M, driven by rising demand, vial access needle transition, improved access, and enhanced support programs, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The firm added that its price target, which is based on a DCF valuation model, is also driven by oncology franchise sales, with peak sales of $106M in 2025.

H.C. Wainwright

Brandon Folkes

Buy

initiated

2025-06-09

Reason

H.C. Wainwright

Brandon Folkes

Price Target

2025-06-09

initiated

Buy

Reason

H.C. Wainwright analyst Brandon Folkes initiated coverage of Heron Therapeutics with a Buy rating and $6 price target. Heron is a commercial-stage biotechnology company with multiple products, across the acute care and oncology supportive care setting, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The firm says Heron is entering a "meaningful inflection phase" on Zynrelef. Despite successful branded products in the post-surgical pain market, overall branded penetration remains low, contends H.C. Wainwright.

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HRTX Should I Buy

HRTX Should I Buy

Should You Buy Heron Therapeutics Inc (HRTX) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Technical Analysis

Options Data

Technical Summary

Positive Catalysts

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Financial Performance

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

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