Not a good buy right now: price is in a confirmed short-term downtrend (bearish MAs + negative/expanding MACD) and “smart money” flow is negative (hedge funds and insiders selling).
Oversold (RSI_6 11.5) and sitting near support (34–35.5) could trigger a technical bounce, but there’s no Intellectia buy trigger to prioritize and the tape is still heavy.
Given the user is impatient and unwilling to wait for an optimal entry, the current setup is not a clean “buy now”; it’s better treated as a hold/avoid new entry until trend stabilizes.
Technical Analysis
One-day move: -7.10% regular session drop (sharp selloff) with small pre/post-market upticks that do not yet change trend.
Mean reversion: RSI_6 at ~11.47 = extremely oversold, raising odds of a short-term bounce, but oversold can persist in strong downtrends.
Levels: Support S1 ~35.544 and S2 ~34.00; current ~34.77 is near key support. Resistance/pivot overhead at ~38.04, then ~40.54.
Pattern-based forward view (provided): ~60% chance of -0.26% next day, +0.81% next week, -2.22% next month (bounce risk near-term, weaker monthly bias).
Options Data
Bullish
Open Interest Put-Call Ratio
Bullish
Option Volume Put-Call Ratio
Sentiment tilt is moderately bullish: calls dominate both open interest (PCR 0.7) and daily volume (PCR 0.43).
Volatility: 30D IV ~40.5 vs historical vol ~29.7 = options pricing in elevated movement; IV percentile ~94.4 suggests “rich” premiums (market expecting/charging for big moves).
Activity: today’s volume roughly in-line with 30D average (100.9%), and open interest is elevated vs its 30D average (116.7%), suggesting positioning is meaningful but not a sudden one-day surge.
Technical Summary
Sell
10
Buy
6
Positive Catalysts
results beat expectations on revenue: $198.9M (+11.05% YoY) and net loss was better than expected per news.
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
Strong negative price reaction after earnings/guidance despite “better-than-expected” metrics suggests the market is focused on other concerns (profitability/margins, outlook quality, or positioning).
Insiders selling: selling amount up ~309.28% over the last month (negative confidence signal).
Trend/momentum are bearish (MACD worsening, bearish moving averages), increasing risk that support near ~34 breaks.
Leadership transition highlighted on the earnings call may add execution uncertainty during the most important seasonal period.
Financial Performance
Latest quarter: 2026/Q2.
Revenue: $198.865M, +11.05% YoY (top-line growth is positive).
Net income: -$242.166M, -0.61% YoY (still a sizable loss; slight deterioration YoY).
EPS: -1.91, +6.11% YoY (improved versus last year, but remains negative).
Gross margin: reported 29.81, down -139.50% YoY (as provided; indicates major margin pressure/deterioration in the dataset and aligns with why the market could be selling the stock).
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
No analyst rating or price-target change data was provided in the dataset, so a confirmed trend in upgrades/downgrades cannot be stated.
Wall Street-style “pros vs cons” view based on provided fundamentals/news:
Pros: revenue beat and guidance reaffirmation; seasonal execution focus into core tax period.
Cons: profitability remains negative in the quarter and margin data implies pressure; stock’s post-earnings selloff indicates skepticism; insider and hedge-fund selling are clear negatives.
Politicians / Congress trading: no recent congress trading data available (no politician buy/sell signal identified).
Wall Street analysts forecast HRB stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for HRB is 62 USD with a low forecast of 62 USD and a high forecast of 62 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
2 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast HRB stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for HRB is 62 USD with a low forecast of 62 USD and a high forecast of 62 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
1 Buy
1 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 34.560
Low
62
Averages
62
High
62
Current: 34.560
Low
62
Averages
62
High
62
Barrington
Alexander Paris
Outperform
to
NULL
downgrade
$62 -> $50
AI Analysis
2026-02-04
New
Reason
Barrington
Alexander Paris
Price Target
$62 -> $50
AI Analysis
2026-02-04
New
downgrade
Outperform
to
NULL
Reason
Barrington analyst Alexander Paris lowered the firm's price target on H&R Block to $50 from $62 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares. H&R Block's Q1 results were head of expectations and guidance for fiscal 2026 was reaffirmed, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
Barrington
Alexander Paris
Outperform
downgrade
$70 -> $62
2025-08-13
Reason
Barrington
Alexander Paris
Price Target
$70 -> $62
2025-08-13
downgrade
Outperform
Reason
Barrington analyst Alexander Paris lowered the firm's price target on H&R Block to $62 from $70 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares after Q4 results came in "generally below expectations" and initial guidance for FY26 was "mixed." The firm, which notes that its revised target represents about 20% upside from current levels, cites the stock's current valuation, an increased dividend yielding 3.3% and an "aggressive share repurchase program" among the reasons for its Outperform rating.
Unlock Full Analyst Thesis， Get the complete breakdown of rating reason for HRB
