HLI Should I Buy
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HLI is not a good buy right now for a Beginner long-term investor with $50,000-$100,000 available. The stock has some supportive sentiment from options and the recent positive market reaction to earnings, but the technical setup is weak, analyst targets have been trending down, hedge funds are net sellers, and the latest quarter showed a revenue and EPS miss with margin compression. For an inpatient investor who does not want to wait for a better entry, this is still not a clear buy today. Hold and wait for a stronger trend confirmation.
Pre-market price is 151.55, sitting just above pivot support at 150.219 and below resistance at 153.97. Short-term momentum is mixed to bearish: MACD histogram is -0.291 and still below zero, RSI_6 is neutral at 53.659, and moving averages are bearish with SMA_200 > SMA_20 > SMA_5. That structure suggests the longer-term trend is not yet fully repaired. The near-term pattern analysis also points to weakness, with an estimated 40% chance of -0.72% next day, -2% next week, and -6.44% next month. Overall, the chart does not show a strong long-term entry yet.
The recent earnings reaction was positive despite the miss, which suggests investors still see value in the business. Options sentiment is bullish, with very low put-call ratios indicating traders are positioned for upside. Goldman Sachs still has a Buy rating and sees longer-term M&A prospects as constructive, and Keefe Bruyette remains Outperform. The company operates in a business that can benefit from M&A recovery over time.
Latest quarter was weak: revenue fell 4.6% year over year to $635.6 million and missed estimates by 6.4%, while adjusted EPS of $1.63 missed by 8.9%. Operating margin also declined to 19.7% from 21.2%. Analyst price targets have been cut repeatedly across UBS, Keefe Bruyette, and Morgan Stanley, showing cooling expectations. Hedge funds are selling aggressively, with selling up 102.34% over the last quarter. There is no AI Stock Picker signal and no recent SwingMax signal.
Latest quarter was Q1. Houlihan Lokey posted revenue of $635.6 million, down 4.6% year over year and below expectations. Adjusted EPS came in at $1.63 versus $1.79 expected, also a miss. Operating margin compressed to 19.7% from 21.2% last year. The latest quarter shows slower growth and margin pressure rather than a clear acceleration in fundamentals.
Analyst sentiment is mixed to cautiously positive, but the trend is downward. UBS lowered its target to $160 and kept Neutral, Keefe Bruyette cut to $172 but stayed Outperform, Morgan Stanley cut to $193 and kept Overweight, and Goldman Sachs cut to $210 while maintaining Buy. The key wall street view is that long-term M&A prospects remain constructive, but near-term execution and revenue visibility are less convincing. Overall, pros still see upside potential, but the cons side is stronger right now because targets are being reduced and fundamental momentum has softened.
