Not a good buy right now for an impatient trader: trend is still bearish (SMA_200 > SMA_20 > SMA_5) and price is below the key pivot (176.675).
While RSI is deeply oversold (RSI_6 ~28.6) and could support a short bounce, there is no Intellectia buy signal to prioritize, and hedge funds are actively selling.
Best stance right now is to HOLD/avoid new longs until price reclaims the pivot area (~176.7) or a confirmed reversal signal appears.
Trend/structure: Bearish alignment (SMA_200 > SMA_20 > SMA_5) suggests the intermediate trend is still down.
Momentum: MACD histogram at -2.462 (below zero) but negatively contracting, indicating downside momentum is weakening (potential early stabilization, not a confirmed reversal).
RSI: RSI_6 at 28.557 is oversold/washed-out, often associated with reflex bounces, but it’s not a standalone buy trigger given the broader downtrend.
Levels: Support S1=163.523 (nearby), then S2=155.397. Resistance/pivot at 176.675, then R1=189.827.
Near-term pattern odds provided: 70% chance of ~-0.26% next day, +6.08% next week, -2.56% next month (suggests choppy mean-reversion bounce risk, but not a clean uptrend).
Options Data
Bullish
Open Interest Put-Call Ratio
Bullish
Option Volume Put-Call Ratio
Sentiment from positioning: Open interest put/call ratio 0.61 is more call-heavy than put-heavy (mildly bullish positioning).
Activity: Option volume is effectively zero today (no meaningful confirmation from flow).
Volatility: 30d IV 28.73 vs historical vol 30.18 (IV slightly discounted to realized), but IV percentile 74.1 indicates IV is elevated versus its own recent distribution.
Interpretation: Positioning leans bullish, but lack of volume/flow makes it a weak signal; elevated IV percentile can make buying options less attractive and often coincides with uncertainty.
Technical Summary
Sell
7
Buy
3
Positive Catalysts
showed strong growth (Revenue +13.03% YoY; Net Income +22.29% YoY; EPS +22.30% YoY).
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
Flows/positioning: Hedge funds are selling, with selling amount up 102.34% over the last quarter (not supportive for near-term price action).
Analyst sentiment nuance: Goldman removed HLI from its US Conviction List (can reduce marginal institutional enthusiasm).
No confirmed catalyst in the news that directly re-rates earnings expectations upward in the immediate term.
Financial Performance
2026/Q3 results show accelerating profitability vs revenue: Revenue 717,072,000 (+13.03% YoY) and Net Income 116,548,000 (+22.29% YoY), implying operating leverage.
EPS 1.70 (+22.30% YoY) is strong and supports the longer-term thesis.
Overall: fundamentals look healthy, but the stock’s near-term setup is more constrained by technicals and fund flows than by the latest quarter’s growth.
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Recent trend: Price targets were mostly nudged/trimmed in January by Keefe Bruyette (multiple small lowers), while UBS and BMO raised targets modestly (UBS to 196, BMO to 211) with ratings staying Neutral/Outperform respectively.
Current Wall St view (pros): Multiple Outperform ratings and targets (roughly low-200s) imply upside from 167.62 if execution continues; analysts cite revenue strength (notably RX).
Current Wall St view (cons): At least one major firm (UBS) is Neutral and Goldman removed it from the Conviction List, suggesting valuation/expectations may already price in much of the quality.
Politicians/influentials: No recent congress trading data available; insider activity is neutral with no significant recent trend.
Wall Street analysts forecast HLI stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for HLI is 215.5 USD with a low forecast of 193 USD and a high forecast of 235 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
4 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast HLI stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for HLI is 215.5 USD with a low forecast of 193 USD and a high forecast of 235 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
3 Buy
1 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 172.960
Low
193
Averages
215.5
High
235
Current: 172.960
Low
193
Averages
215.5
High
235
UBS
Michael Brown
Neutral
maintain
$193 -> $196
AI Analysis
2026-01-30
Reason
UBS
Michael Brown
Price Target
$193 -> $196
AI Analysis
2026-01-30
maintain
Neutral
Reason
UBS analyst Michael Brown raised the firm's price target on Houlihan Lokey to $196 from $193 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares.
BMO Capital
Brennan Hawken
Outperform
maintain
$209 -> $211
2026-01-29
Reason
BMO Capital
Brennan Hawken
Price Target
$209 -> $211
2026-01-29
maintain
Outperform
Reason
BMO Capital analyst Brennan Hawken raised the firm's price target on Houlihan Lokey to $211 from $209 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares. The company's revenue beat was driven by RX, though partially offset by marginal misses in corporate finance and FVA, or Financial and Valuation Advisory, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
Unlock Full Analyst Thesis， Get the complete breakdown of rating reason for HLI
