Should You Buy HIVE Digital Technologies Ltd (HIVE) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.
Conclusion
Hold
Latest Price
2.950
1 Day change
-2.96%
52 Week Range
7.840
Analysis Updated At
2026/01/29
Not a good buy right now for a Beginner, long-term investor with $50k–$100k. The stock is sitting on support with weakening momentum (bearish MACD), the latest quarter shows surging revenue but worsening profitability and very thin margins, and Wall Street sentiment just deteriorated sharply via a major downgrade/price-target cut. Even though options positioning is call-heavy (bullish skew), the risk/reward is not attractive for a long-term beginner who wants to buy now rather than wait for a better setup.
Technical Analysis
**Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals**
- [AI Stock Picker](module://ai_stock_pick): no signal on given stock today.
- [SwingMax](module://swingmax): No signal on given stock recently.
**Trend / momentum**: Near-term technicals lean bearish. MACD histogram is negative (-0.0126) and expanding lower, which typically signals downside momentum building. RSI(6) at 34.89 is getting close to oversold but is not yet a clear reversal signal.
**Levels that matter now**: Price (~2.94) is essentially sitting on S1 (2.948). A clean break below this area increases odds of a move toward S2 (2.769). Upside resistance is overhead at Pivot 3.236, then R1 3.524.
**Pattern-based forward bias (provided)**: Similar-pattern stats imply a slightly negative bias over the next week/month (next week -2.16%, next month -1.18%), which does not support an “impatient buy now” entry.
Options Data
Bullish
Open Interest Put-Call Ratio
Bullish
Option Volume Put-Call Ratio
**Sentiment read**: Options positioning is strongly call-skewed (OI PCR 0.18; volume PCR 0.23), which is bullish in tone.
**Activity / risk**: Implied volatility is extremely high (30D IV ~122% vs historical vol ~105%), meaning the market is pricing large moves. Volume today (7,806) is well below recent averages (5D avg ~23,964), suggesting sentiment is skewed bullish but not currently backed by heavy participation.
**Takeaway**: Options skew is positive, but in a high-IV name like a crypto miner, call-heavy positioning can reflect speculation more than stable long-term conviction.
Technical Summary
Sell
9
Buy
5
Positive Catalysts
- Upcoming earnings: QDEC 2025 earnings on 2026-02-09 (pre-market) could act as a catalyst.
- If Bitcoin/hash price environment improves, miners’ economics can inflect quickly.
- Fresh major downgrade (Keefe Bruyette) with price target cut from $11 to $3.50, citing insufficient operating returns from scaling and “no durable edge” in AI cloud.
- Profitability deterioration: net loss widened sharply and gross margin compressed.
- Structural headwinds for miners: network competition and hash-price pressure.
- High volatility profile (very high IV) is unfavorable for a beginner long-term “buy and hold” approach.
**Influential/political trading**: No recent congress trading data available; no notable politician/influential figure activity provided. Hedge funds/insiders: neutral (no significant recent trends).
Financial Performance
Latest reported quarter: **2026/Q2**.
- **Revenue:** 87.253M, **+285.26% YoY** (strong top-line growth).
- **Net income:** -15.797M, **worse YoY** (loss expanded materially).
- **EPS:** -0.07 (still negative).
- **Gross margin:** 4.71%, down sharply YoY (very thin/weak profitability).
Bottom line: Growth is coming through revenue, but it is not translating into durable profitability yet—this weakens the long-term “buy now and hold” case for a beginner investor.
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Recent trend: Analyst tone has weakened.
- **2026-01-26 (Keefe Bruyette):** Downgrade to Market Perform from Outperform; PT cut to **$3.50 from $11** (very negative shift; cites weak returns and limited AI cloud edge).
- **2025-12-19 (Rosenblatt):** Buy maintained; PT cut to **$6.50 from $10** (still constructive but acknowledges tougher mining backdrop).
- **2025-11-21 (B. Riley):** Buy maintained; PT cut to **$7 from $8** (positive on progress/catalysts).
- **2025-11-18 (H.C. Wainwright):** Buy maintained; PT raised to **$10 from $8** (earlier optimism).
**Wall Street pros (bull case):** Optionality from HPC/AI/cloud initiatives and deployment catalysts; potential leverage to a stronger crypto/hash-price cycle.
**Wall Street cons (bear case):** Concern that scaling doesn’t generate sufficient operating returns; competitive mining economics; skepticism about durable AI cloud differentiation; profitability/margins currently weak.
Net: The most recent and sharpest change is negative, which weighs heavily on the near-term investability.
Wall Street analysts forecast HIVE stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for HIVE is 8.17 USD with a low forecast of 6.5 USD and a high forecast of 10 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
6 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast HIVE stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for HIVE is 8.17 USD with a low forecast of 6.5 USD and a high forecast of 10 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
6 Buy
0 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 3.040
Low
6.5
Averages
8.17
High
10
Current: 3.040
Low
6.5
Averages
8.17
High
10
Keefe Bruyette
Stephen Glagola
Outperform -> Market Perform
downgrade
$11
AI Analysis
2026-01-26
New
Reason
Keefe Bruyette
Stephen Glagola
Price Target
$11
AI Analysis
2026-01-26
New
downgrade
Outperform -> Market Perform
Reason
Keefe Bruyette analyst Stephen Glagola downgraded Hive Digital to Market Perform from Outperform with a price target of $3.50, down from $11. The firm is concerned that Hive is scaling bitcoin mining without generating sufficient operating returns. The company's upside potential is dependent on a stronger hash price environment, but Keefe's outlook remains conservative, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Keefe believes Hive Digital has "no durable edge" in AI cloud.
Keefe Bruyette
Outperform -> Market Perform
downgrade
$11
2026-01-26
New
Reason
Keefe Bruyette
Price Target
$11
2026-01-26
New
downgrade
Outperform -> Market Perform
Reason
Keefe Bruyette downgraded Hive Digital to Market Perform from Outperform with a price target of $3.50, down from $11.
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