Should I Buy HG? HG 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy Hamilton Insurance Group Ltd (HG) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Buy

Latest Price

27.750

1 Day change

0.29%

52 Week Range

28.720

Analysis Updated At

2026/01/29

Buy HG now for a beginner, long-term investor with $50k–$100k. The technical trend is bullish (stacked moving averages and improving MACD), recent fundamentals show strong YoY growth (2025/Q3), and Wall Street price targets have been moving higher. With no negative news flow in the past week and sentiment leaning constructive, HG looks like a solid long-term entry at current levels around $27.28.

Technical Analysis

Trend is bullish. HG has bullish moving average alignment (SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200), indicating a sustained uptrend across short-, mid-, and long-term timeframes. MACD histogram is positive (0.061) and expanding, supporting upward momentum. RSI(6) is 57.49 (neutral-to-mildly bullish), suggesting the stock is not overbought. Key levels: Pivot 26.978 is the near-term “line in the sand.” Immediate resistance is R1 27.708, then R2 28.159. Price at 27.28 sits above the pivot and below R1, which is a reasonable long-term buy zone with upside if it clears 27.71.

Options Data

Bullish

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bullish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Options positioning leans bullish: open interest put/call ratio at 0.5 suggests more calls than puts outstanding (constructive sentiment/positioning). Reported option volume put/call ratio is 0.0 and today’s total volume is very low (10 contracts), so near-term options activity is thin and not a strong timing signal. Implied volatility (30D) is elevated at ~54.68 vs historical volatility ~37.32, implying the options market is pricing larger-than-usual moves (often seen around uncertainty/earnings), though the next major scheduled catalyst is earnings on 2026-02-19.

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

Strong recent operating momentum: 2025/Q3 revenue +18.55% YoY, net income +74.06% YoY, EPS +78.38% YoY.
Analyst targets have been raised multiple times (supportive of valuation and outlook).
Sector backdrop: commentary from analysts points to continued strong casualty pricing and ability to rotate away from softening lines as a competitive advantage.
Upcoming earnings (2026-02-19 after hours) could reinforce the growth narrative if results/guide remain strong.

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Industry headwinds flagged by analysts: softening pricing in property and increased competition in personal auto could pressure growth/margins if Hamilton cannot offset via mix/underwriting discipline.
Near-term technical overhead: resistance around 27.71–28.16 could slow upside until a breakout.
Quant-style pattern outlook provided suggests modest downside bias over the next week/month (-2.87% next week, -3.07% next month probabilities/estimates), which could create short-term drawdowns even within a longer uptrend.

Financial Performance

Latest reported quarter: 2025/Q3. Growth was strong across the board: revenue rose to $661.869M (+18.55% YoY), net income increased to $136.2M (+74.06% YoY), and EPS grew to $1.32 (+78.38% YoY). This combination (top-line acceleration with even faster earnings growth) supports the long-term buy case and aligns with the positive technical trend.

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

Recent trend is positive: multiple firms raised price targets during Nov–Dec 2025. Keefe Bruyette reiterated Outperform and raised PT to $30 (from $28). Citizens JMP reiterated Outperform and raised PT to $32 (from $31). Morgan Stanley raised PT twice (to $27 then $28) while keeping Equal Weight. Wall Street pros: strong positioning to benefit from hard market conditions in specialty insurance/reinsurance and flexibility to lean into hardening lines. Cons: recognition that parts of P&C may soften (property pricing, personal auto competition), which could cap upside if the cycle turns faster than expected.

5 Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast HG stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for HG is 29.2 USD with a low forecast of 24 USD and a high forecast of 32 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

3 Buy

2 Hold

0 Sell

Moderate Buy

Current: 27.670

Low

Averages

29.2

High

Current: 27.670

Low

Averages

29.2

High

Morgan Stanley

analyst

Equal Weight

maintain

$27 -> $28

AI Analysis

2025-12-16

Reason

Morgan Stanley

analyst

Price Target

$27 -> $28

AI Analysis

2025-12-16

maintain

Equal Weight

Reason

Morgan Stanley raised the firm's price target on Hamilton Insurance to $28 from $27 and keeps an Equal Weight rating on the shares. Although the P&C insurance sector faces known challenges, including softening pricing in property and more competition in personal auto, attractive valuations and strong casualty pricing partially offset this, says the analyst, who maintains an Attractive industry view heading into 2026.

Keefe Bruyette

Outperform

maintain

$28 -> $30

2025-11-20

Reason

Keefe Bruyette

Price Target

$28 -> $30

2025-11-20

maintain

Outperform

Reason

Keefe Bruyette raised the firm's price target on Hamilton Insurance to $30 from $28 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares. Hamilton's ability to lean into hardening lines and pull back from softening lines is a distinct advantage as the cycle rotates, the analyst tells investors in a research note.

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HG Should I Buy

HG Should I Buy

Should You Buy Hamilton Insurance Group Ltd (HG) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Technical Analysis

Options Data

Technical Summary

Positive Catalysts

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Financial Performance

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

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