Not a good “buy right now” for an impatient investor: the chart is only mildly improving and there are no Intellectia buy signals to justify urgency.
Short-term upside is possible (post-market strength and proximity to resistance), but the latest quarter showed sharp YoY deterioration, making the risk/reward unattractive without a clear catalyst.
Best stance today: HOLD / wait for a cleaner technical breakout above ~$4.66–$4.80 or for earnings (2026-02-26 pre-market) to confirm a turnaround.
Technical Analysis
Price area: regular-session reference around $4.42 with post-market ~$4.60 (+4.07%), placing price near the pivot ($4.434) and just below R1 ($4.657).
Trend/momentum: MACD histogram is positive (0.0265) but contracting → bullish momentum exists but is fading; RSI(6) ~49.5 → neutral, no strong trend signal.
Moving averages: converging MAs → consolidation/indecision; a breakout is possible but not confirmed.
Key levels:
Support: S1 $4.21 (then S2 $4.07)
Resistance: R1 $4.657 (then R2 $4.795)
Probabilistic trend read (pattern analogs): 60% chance of modest gains (+2.47% next day, +2.96% next week, +8.72% next month) — constructive, but not strong enough alone to force an immediate entry.
Volatility: 30D IV ~69% vs historical vol ~42.6% (options pricing elevated in absolute terms), but IV percentile ~2.39 suggests current IV is low relative to its own recent history (limited “fear bid” right now).
Technical Summary
Sell
8
Buy
1
Positive Catalysts
Local sports broadcast expansion: Gray Media expanding partnership with the Kansas City Royals for the 2026 season increases local reach/engagement and can support ad inventory and brand visibility.
Earnings catalyst ahead: QDEC 2025 earnings on 2026-02-26 (pre-market) could re-rate the stock if retrans/operational trends stabilize.
Analyst upside: Benchmark reiterates Buy with a materially higher target ($10), implying meaningful upside if execution improves.
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
with estimated EPS around -0.28 can trigger downside if guidance disappoints.
Financial Performance
Latest reported quarter: 2025/Q3.
Revenue: $749M, down -21.16% YoY (significant contraction).
Profitability: Net income -$23M (down -127.71% YoY), EPS -0.24 (down -127.91% YoY).
Margins: Gross margin 17.22%, down -43.60% YoY (margin compression is a major negative trend).
Overall read: the business is trending weaker YoY, so the stock needs a clear operational inflection or catalyst to justify an aggressive buy today.
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
2025-11-10 (Wells Fargo): Equal Weight; price target raised to $5.50 from $5.00. View: retrans headwinds may stabilize in 2026+, ops steady; equity value creation likely hinges on larger-scale M&A/deleveraging.
2025-11-10 (Benchmark): Buy; price target raised to $10 from $9 after revenue in-line (high end of guidance) and ~$12M EBITDA upside; sees momentum into 2026.
Wall Street pros/cons summary:
Pros: targets imply upside from current ~$4.4–$4.6; narrative for stabilization/deleveraging and some operational momentum.
Cons: one major shop remains neutral (Equal Weight), and the fundamental trend (recent YoY declines) is not yet convincingly repaired.
Wall Street analysts forecast GTN.A stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for GTN.A is 7.25 USD with a low forecast of 5.5 USD and a high forecast of 10 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
4 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast GTN.A stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for GTN.A is 7.25 USD with a low forecast of 5.5 USD and a high forecast of 10 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
3 Buy
1 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 4.320
Low
5.5
Averages
7.25
High
10
Current: 4.320
Low
5.5
Averages
7.25
High
10
Wells Fargo
Steven Cahall
Equal Weight
maintain
$5
AI Analysis
2025-11-10
Reason
Wells Fargo
Steven Cahall
Price Target
$5
AI Analysis
2025-11-10
maintain
Equal Weight
Reason
Wells Fargo analyst Steven Cahall raised the firm's price target on Gray Media to $5.50 from $5 and keeps an Equal Weight rating on the shares. The firm notes net retrans has been an overhang to Gray Media, but Wells sees it stabilizing in 2026-plus. Overall, op trends are steady. The firm sees investors focusing primarily on larger-scale M&A opportunities as they're the strongest path to deleveraging and equity value creation.
Benchmark
Daniel Kurnos
Buy
maintain
$9 -> $10
2025-11-10
Reason
Benchmark
Daniel Kurnos
Price Target
$9 -> $10
2025-11-10
maintain
Buy
Reason
Benchmark analyst Daniel Kurnos raised the firm's price target on Gray Media to $10 from $9 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares after the company posted a revenue number in line with consensus at the highest end of the prior guidance range along with over $12M of EBITDA upside. The firm thinks Gray is gaining some momentum into 2026, the analyst tells investors in a post-earnings note.
Unlock Full Analyst Thesis， Get the complete breakdown of rating reason for GTN.A
