Should I Buy GRND? GRND 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy Grindr Inc (GRND) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Hold

Latest Price

11.580

1 Day change

-0.34%

52 Week Range

25.130

Analysis Updated At

2026/01/28

GRND is NOT a good buy right now for a beginner long-term investor who wants to act immediately. Despite strong Q3 growth and still-positive Wall Street ratings, the stock is in a clear downtrend (bearish moving averages), has a negative MACD, heavy recent insider selling, and statistical pattern signals point to further downside over the next month. The risk/reward for buying today is unfavorable versus waiting for a confirmed trend reversal.

Technical Analysis

Price/Trend: GRND closed at 11.83 (down -0.94% on the day) and is trading in a bearish structure with SMA_200 > SMA_20 > SMA_5, signaling a sustained downtrend. Momentum: MACD histogram is negative (-0.0997) but contracting, which suggests downside momentum is easing, not reversing. Overbought/Oversold: RSI_6 is extremely oversold at 8.217—this can spark short bounces, but oversold conditions can persist in downtrends. Key levels: Pivot 12.21 (overhead). Immediate support is S1 11.622 (very close) and then S2 11.258. If 11.62 breaks, the next support is ~11.26. Quant pattern read: Similar-pattern analysis implies a 80% chance of -1.19% next day, -1.27% next week, and -5.16% next month, reinforcing that the prevailing bias remains downward. Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals - [AI Stock Picker](module://ai_stock_pick): No signal on given stock today. - [SwingMax](module://swingmax): No signal on given stock today.

Options Data

Bullish

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bullish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Sentiment: Put-call ratios are low (OI PCR 0.4; Volume PCR 0.18), showing call-heavy positioning and generally bullish speculative sentiment. Activity: Today’s option volume (713) is elevated vs the 30-day average (22.17x), suggesting unusually high attention/positioning. Volatility: 30D IV is 55.5 with IV percentile 72.8 (options relatively expensive). That often aligns with event/uncertainty pricing; it can support sharp moves but also means buyers are paying up for optionality. Takeaway: Options traders are positioned bullishly, but high IV and the downtrending tape make this more consistent with short-term speculation than a clean long-term entry signal today.

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

Strong fundamentals in the latest reported quarter (2025/Q3): revenue +29.6% YoY and net income +24.93% YoY, with gross margin improving to 73.93%.
Analysts remain constructive: Goldman Sachs reiterates Buy and JMP reiterates Outperform, both highlighting engagement and longer-run growth potential.
Potential corporate-action overhang: ongoing focus on the non-binding proposal referenced by analysts can act as a catalyst if it progresses favorably.

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Insiders are selling aggressively: selling amount increased 955.26% over the last month (bearish signal versus management confidence/timing).
Technical downtrend remains intact (bearish moving-average stack, negative MACD).
No fresh news this week to reset sentiment upward.
Near-term uncertainty noted by analysts around shareholder proposal developments can keep the stock choppy and pressure multiples.

Financial Performance

Latest quarter: 2025/Q3. Revenue: 115.766M, up 29.60% YoY (strong top-line growth). Net income: 30.834M, up 24.93% YoY (profit growing with revenue). EPS: 0.16, up 14.29% YoY. Gross margin: 73.93%, up 6.22% YoY (improving unit economics/mix). Overall: Financial trends are clearly positive (growth + margin expansion), which supports a bullish long-term thesis—but the stock’s current trading/insider signals are not aligned with an immediate buy.

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

Recent trend: Ratings remain positive (Buy/Outperform), but price targets were trimmed. - 2025-11-10: Citizens JMP lowered PT to $21 from $23, kept Outperform; cited better-than-expected Q3 and sees path to 20%+ growth in 2026/2027. - 2025-11-07: Goldman Sachs lowered PT to $20 from $22, kept Buy; notes investor focus on non-binding proposal, but views engagement as outsized. Wall Street pros: strong engagement, strong Q3 execution, credible multi-year growth narrative. Wall Street cons: proposal/ownership debate is an overhang, and near-term user/trajectory debates plus the current downtrend can keep sentiment fragile. Influential/politician trading: No recent congress trading data available; no politician/influential-figure trades were provided.

4 Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast GRND stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for GRND is 22 USD with a low forecast of 20 USD and a high forecast of 26 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

4 Buy

0 Hold

0 Sell

Strong Buy

Current: 11.620

Low

Averages

High

Current: 11.620

Low

Averages

High

Citizens JMP

Outperform

maintain

$23 -> $21

AI Analysis

2025-11-10

Reason

Citizens JMP

Price Target

$23 -> $21

AI Analysis

2025-11-10

maintain

Outperform

Reason

Citizens JMP lowered the firm's price target on Grindr to $21 from $23 and keeps an Outperform rating on the shares. Grindr reported better-than-expected Q3 results with revenue coming in 2% above consensus while EBITDA came in 11% above consensus, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Citizens believes Grindr has a path to 20%+ growth in 2026 and 2027.

Goldman Sachs

Buy

downgrade

$22 -> $20

2025-11-07

Reason

Goldman Sachs

Price Target

$22 -> $20

2025-11-07

downgrade

Buy

Reason

Goldman Sachs lowered the firm's price target on Grindr to $20 from $22 but keeps a Buy rating on the shares after its Q3 results. Investors remain focused on developments surrounding the non-binding proposal submitted by Zage and Lu, but the management also noted that the Grindr team remains focused on executing against the broader addressable market opportunity through delivering a product that drives deeper user engagement, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The firm adds that while near-term debates will likely remain around user trajectory and any eventual resolution of the shareholder proposals, Goldman also sees the Grindr app as having outsized levels of engagement.

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GRND Should I Buy

GRND Should I Buy

Should You Buy Grindr Inc (GRND) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Technical Analysis

Options Data

Technical Summary

Positive Catalysts

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Financial Performance

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

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