Should You Buy Garmin Ltd (GRMN) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.
Conclusion
Hold
Latest Price
204.650
1 Day change
0.08%
52 Week Range
261.690
Analysis Updated At
2026/01/28
Not a good buy right now for a beginner long-term investor who is impatient. GRMN is in a clear short-to-intermediate downtrend (bearish moving-average stack and weakening MACD), hedge funds are selling aggressively, and there is no Intellectia buy signal today. While fundamentals are still growing and Wall Street targets are mostly above the current price, the current tape suggests you’re more likely to get a better entry than $204 in the near term. Best action now: HOLD (or wait to buy until the trend stabilizes).
Technical Analysis
Trend/Momentum: Bearish. The moving averages are stacked negatively (SMA_200 > SMA_20 > SMA_5), indicating a sustained downtrend. MACD histogram is -0.663 and expanding to the downside, which typically signals increasing bearish momentum. RSI(6) ~38.9 is not deeply oversold, meaning the stock can still drift lower without a strong mean-reversion trigger.
Key levels: Pivot ~207.28 is overhead resistance; near-term resistance at ~212.65 then ~215.97. Support is close at ~201.91, with the next support at ~198.59—price at ~204 is uncomfortably close to support in a weakening trend.
Probability/near-term drift (pattern-based): modest upside bias over 1 week/month exists in the dataset, but it conflicts with the current bearish indicator setup.
**Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals**
- [AI Stock Picker](module://ai_stock_pick): No signal on given stock today.
- [SwingMax](module://swingmax): No signal on given stock today.
Options Data
Bullish
Open Interest Put-Call Ratio
Bearish
Option Volume Put-Call Ratio
Sentiment read-through: Open Interest Put/Call Ratio of 0.43 is bullish-leaning (more call OI than puts), suggesting positioning is more optimistic over time. However, the Option Volume Put/Call Ratio of 1.49 is bearish for the day (more puts traded than calls), implying near-term caution/hedging.
Volatility: 30D IV ~30.35 vs historical vol ~38.6 (IV below realized), with IV percentile ~62 (mid-high). Net: longer-term positioning looks constructive, but short-term flow is cautious—consistent with a stock that’s still under technical pressure.
Technical Summary
Sell
8
Buy
1
Positive Catalysts
- Business diversification (fitness/wearables, aviation, marine, outdoor) supports more resilient long-term demand; wearables benefit from wellness secular trends.
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
- Technicals remain bearish (downtrend intact; MACD weakening; bearish MA stack). This is the biggest “right now” negative.
- Hedge funds are selling (reported selling amount up ~1400% over the last quarter), which can create persistent supply.
- Profitability quality softened: gross margin down ~1.52% YoY in 2025/Q3, while EPS and net income growth were nearly flat—suggesting some margin pressure.
- No supportive near-term news flow in the past week to shift momentum.
Financial Performance
Latest quarter: 2025/Q3.
- Revenue: $1.771B, up 11.66% YoY (strong growth).
- Net income: $401.6M, up 0.63% YoY (nearly flat).
- EPS: $2.08, up 0.48% YoY (nearly flat).
- Gross margin: 59.09%, down 1.52% YoY (mild deterioration).
Takeaway: Demand/growth looks healthy, but margin pressure is limiting earnings growth—good long-term durability, but not a clean “buy-now” setup given the weak price trend.
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Recent trend: becoming more positive.
- 2026-01-16 Barclays upgraded to Equal Weight (from Underweight) and raised PT to $217 (from $208), citing undemanding valuation and diversification.
- 2025-12-03 Longbow upgraded to Buy with a $250 PT, calling the prior selloff an overreaction and viewing levels as a good entry.
- 2025-12-19 Tigress reiterated Strong Buy and lifted PT to $310, arguing for outsized wearables/outdoor expansion plus high-margin stability from aviation/marine.
Wall Street pros: improving sentiment, multiple PTs well above current price, positive secular wearables narrative.
Wall Street cons: at least one major shop recently had visibility concerns across Fitness/Outdoor (earlier Barclays view) and the market may be discounting near-term growth gaps; also the stock’s price action is not yet confirming the bullish thesis.
Wall Street analysts forecast GRMN stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for GRMN is 229.6 USD with a low forecast of 185 USD and a high forecast of 310 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
7 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast GRMN stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for GRMN is 229.6 USD with a low forecast of 185 USD and a high forecast of 310 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
2 Buy
2 Hold
3 Sell
Hold
Current: 204.480
Low
185
Averages
229.6
High
310
Current: 204.480
Low
185
Averages
229.6
High
310
Barclays
Underweight -> Equal Weight
upgrade
$208 -> $217
AI Analysis
2026-01-16
Reason
Barclays
Price Target
$208 -> $217
AI Analysis
2026-01-16
upgrade
Underweight -> Equal Weight
Reason
Barclays upgraded Garmin to Equal Weight from Underweight with a price target of $217, up from $208. The firm is more positive on Garmin citing the stock's "undemanding" valuation, the company's business diversification, and continued strength in the wearables business "that continues to benefit from positive secular trends around wellness."
Tigress Financial
Strong Buy
maintain
$305 -> $310
2025-12-19
Reason
Tigress Financial
Price Target
$305 -> $310
2025-12-19
maintain
Strong Buy
Reason
Tigress Financial raised the firm's price target on Garmin to $310 from $305 and keeps a Strong Buy rating on the shares on the view of wearables and outdoor devices driving outsized expansion, while aviation and marine add high-margin stability. The firm notes that its 12-month price target represents a potential total return of over 55% from current levels, including dividends.
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