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The earnings call presents mixed signals. While there are positives like revenue growth, reduced operating expenses, and an optimistic 2026 outlook, there are concerns about tariff impacts, declining gross margins, and sell-through challenges. The Q&A reveals strategic decisions for future growth but lacks specific data, causing uncertainty. The absence of a new flagship product in Q4 2025 and competitive pressures add to the neutral sentiment. Overall, the near-term outlook is stable, but uncertainties prevent a strong positive or negative stance.
Revenue $163 million, with a gross profit margin of 35.2%, in line with guidance. This represents a year-over-year improvement due to actions taken in 2024, such as launching new products, reducing operating expenses, diversifying the supply chain, and driving product cost reductions.
Cash Flow from Operations $12 million positive, a $14 million improvement year-over-year. This improvement is attributed to better-than-expected demand for cameras and reduced channel inventory.
Channel Inventory Declined 30% year-over-year and has reduced for four consecutive quarters. This reduction is part of preparations for the holiday quarter.
Adjusted EBITDA Positive $12 million for Q4 2025, compared to a loss of $14 million in the prior year, marking a $26 million improvement. This improvement is due to new product launches, reduced operating expenses, and supply chain diversification.
Gross Margin 32% expected for Q4 2025, down from 35% in the prior year quarter, primarily due to tariffs. Excluding tariffs, gross margin would be approximately 37%.
Operating Expenses $63 million expected for Q4 2025, a more than 25% reduction from the prior year quarter. This reduction is due to lower spending on wages from reduced headcount, reduced marketing, and lower engineering expenses.
Launch of new hardware products: Introduced MaX2 360-camera, LIT HERO camera, and Fluid Pro AI gimbal in Q3 2025. MaX2 features industry-leading 360 technology with True 8K video resolution and replaceable lenses. LIT HERO is an ultra-compact lifestyle camera with built-in photo and video light. Fluid Pro AI is a multi-camera AI subject tracking gimbal compatible with various devices.
New software products: Launched 360-related editing tools and updated Quik mobile app with AI-powered subject tracking, POV and selfie modes, and cloud-based 360 editing.
Subscription model: Continued growth in subscription model, with over 270,000 hours of video content contributed by subscribers for AI training. Anticipates renewed subscriber growth in 2026.
Market expansion with MaX2 360-camera: Targeting a new growth segment with an estimated TAM of nearly 2 million units annually. Aims to regain market share in the global 360-camera market.
Expansion into low-light capable camera segment: Plans to enter a market with an estimated TAM of 2 million to 2.5 million units annually.
Tech-enabled motorcycle helmets: Collaboration with AGV to develop innovative helmets with safety, performance, and video capture features.
Revenue and profitability growth: Exceeded Q3 revenue guidance with $163 million in revenue. Positive cash flow from operations of $12 million in Q3. Anticipates revenue growth of 10% in Q4 2025 and adjusted EBITDA of $12 million.
Cost management: Reduced operating expenses by over 25% year-over-year in Q4 2025. Diversified supply chain and implemented product cost reductions.
Innovation and diversification: Focused on diversifying hardware and software offerings to expand TAM and drive growth. Plans to launch several new products in 2026.
Debt management: Amended Second Lien Credit Agreement to address tariff rate volatility. CEO personally backed commitment with $2 million equity infusion.
Tariff Volatility: Heightened uncertainty due to volatility in tariff rates is impacting gross margins and financial predictability. Tariffs are expected to cost $45 million in 2026, causing margin pressure.
Consumer Confidence: Uncertainty in consumer confidence could negatively impact demand for GoPro's products, especially during the holiday season.
Competition: Increased competition in the camera and gimbal markets could pressure market share and pricing.
Supply Chain Disruptions: Potential disruptions in the component supply chain could impact production and delivery timelines.
Global Economic Uncertainty: Economic uncertainties globally could affect consumer spending and overall demand for GoPro's products.
Channel Inventory Management: Managing channel inventory remains a challenge, with unit sell-through expected to decline by 18% year-over-year in Q4 2025.
Gross Margin Pressure: Gross margins are expected to decline to 32% in Q4 2025, primarily due to tariffs, down from 35% in the prior year.
Debt and Liquidity Management: Amendments to the debt agreement were required due to tariff changes, and liquidity remains a concern despite expected cash reserves of $80 million by the end of 2026.
Revenue Growth: Expected revenue growth of 10% in Q4 2025, reaching $220 million. Anticipated year-over-year revenue growth in every quarter of 2026.
Profitability: Expected adjusted EBITDA of $12 million in Q4 2025, a $26 million improvement from the prior year. Anticipated adjusted EBITDA of at least $40 million in 2026, compared to losses of $18 million in 2025 and $72 million in 2024.
Gross Margin: Q4 2025 gross margin expected to be 32% at the midpoint of guidance, down from 35% in the prior year due to tariffs. Excluding tariffs, gross margin would be approximately 37%.
Unit Sales: Anticipated unit sell-through of 625,000 units in Q4 2025, down 18% year-over-year. Expected unit growth in every quarter of 2026.
Operating Expenses: Q4 2025 operating expenses expected to be $63 million, a 25% reduction from the prior year. Full-year 2026 operating expenses projected to be approximately $250 million, slightly down year-over-year.
Subscription Growth: Anticipated subscription ARPU growth of 5% and subscriber base to grow to 2.4 million by the end of 2026.
Liquidity: Expected cash and cash equivalents of $60-$65 million by the end of 2025, with an additional $50 million available under the ABL facility. Anticipated cash position of approximately $80 million by the end of 2026.
Market Expansion: Plans to launch several new innovative products and services in 2026, targeting revenue, profit, and market share growth. Expansion into new market segments such as low-light capable cameras and tech-enabled motorcycle helmets.
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The earnings call presents mixed signals. While there are positives like revenue growth, reduced operating expenses, and an optimistic 2026 outlook, there are concerns about tariff impacts, declining gross margins, and sell-through challenges. The Q&A reveals strategic decisions for future growth but lacks specific data, causing uncertainty. The absence of a new flagship product in Q4 2025 and competitive pressures add to the neutral sentiment. Overall, the near-term outlook is stable, but uncertainties prevent a strong positive or negative stance.
Despite some positive financial metrics, such as improved gross margins and reduced operating expenses, GoPro faces significant challenges. The expected revenue decline, increased tariff costs, and competition from China-based rivals present substantial risks. The Q&A reveals vague responses on consumer demand and competition, indicating uncertainties. The guidance for Q2 2025 shows a revenue decline and a net loss, which are likely to negatively impact the stock price. Given these factors, the sentiment is negative, with a potential stock price decrease between -2% to -8%.
The earnings call reveals several negative factors: a significant revenue guidance decline (22% YoY), ongoing competitive pressures, and macroeconomic challenges in Asia. Despite some positive aspects, like reduced operating expenses and increased gross margins, these are overshadowed by the EPS miss, legal issues, and lack of a share repurchase program. The Q&A section highlights management's vague responses and challenges in Asia. These factors, combined with the absence of a market cap for precise impact assessment, suggest a negative sentiment, predicting a stock price decline between -2% to -8%.
The earnings call presents a mixed outlook. While there are positives like proactive supply chain management and a share repurchase program, the EPS miss and vague guidance for 2025 introduce uncertainty. The Q&A further highlights concerns about declining subscribers and competition, with management avoiding precise revenue guidance. These factors balance each other out, leading to a neutral sentiment.
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