GOGL Earnings Prediction
The chart below shows how GOGL performed 10 days before and after its earnings report, based on data from the past quarters. Typically, GOGL sees a -2.76% change in stock price 10 days leading up to the earnings, and a -1.57% change 10 days following the report. On the earnings day itself, the stock moves by +1.48%. This data can give you a slight idea of what to expect for the next quarter's release.
GOGL Key Earning Data
2024/Q4
Year Over Year
Quarter Over Quarter
Total Revenue
210.97M
-17.01%
-19.05%
Gross Margin
20.74%
-45.74%
-46.64%
Operating Margin
15.68%
-53.29%
-54.42%
Net Margin
18.49%
-18.22%
-14.44%
EPS
0.20
-33.33%
-28.57%
No Data Available
GOGL Earnings Analysis
Golden Ocean Group Ltd Corporation (GOGL.O) Earnings Conference Call
Positive
Strong EBITDA Growth: Adjusted EBITDA for Q4 2024 was $69.9 million, showing a strong annual growth with a full year net profit of $223.2 million, up from $112.3 million in 2023.
Dividend Declaration: The company declared a dividend of $0.15 per share for Q4 2024, reflecting a commitment to returning value to shareholders.
Capesize Revenue Stability: Secured a net TCE of about $15,100 per day for 77% of Capesize days in Q1 2025, indicating strong forward bookings and revenue stability.
Capesize Vessel Acquisition Impact: The acquisition of eight Capesize vessels for $112 million will reduce cash breakeven by approximately $1,000 per day, enhancing profitability.
Market Leadership in Shipping: The company maintains its position as the largest listed owner in the Capesize and Newcastlemax segment, which represents over 80% of its earnings capacity.
Steel Production Increase: Chinese steel production is up 6% compared to Q4 2023, indicating a positive demand outlook for iron ore and related shipping.
Bauxite Export Growth: Guinea bauxite exports have grown with an average compounded growth rate of 22% over the last five years, contributing to increased ton-mile demand for Capesize vessels.
Operational Efficiency Advantage: The company has outperformed indexes by close to $4,500 per day on the full fleet, showcasing operational efficiency and competitive advantage.
Lease Refinancing Benefits: The refinancing of leases for eight vessels will further reduce cash breakeven rates, positioning the company favorably for future profitability.
Negative
EBITDA Decline Analysis: Adjusted EBITDA decreased significantly from $124.4 million in Q3 to $69.9 million in Q4, indicating a sharp decline in profitability.
Declining Net Income: Net income fell from $56.3 million in Q3 to $39 million in Q4, reflecting a downward trend in earnings.
Fleet TCE Rate Decline: Total fleet wide TCE rate dropped from $23,700 in Q3 to $20,800 in Q4, showing reduced revenue per day for the fleet.
Drydocking Cost Surge: Drydocking costs surged to $34.3 million in Q4 from $9.7 million in Q3, leading to increased operational expenses and reduced fleet availability.
Operating Expenses Increase: Operating expenses rose to $95.6 million in Q4, up from $69.4 million in Q3, primarily due to drydocking and related costs.
Decline in Cash Flow: Cash flow from operations decreased from $100.8 million in Q3 to $71.7 million in Q4, indicating a decline in cash generation capabilities.
Rising Administrative Expenses: The company experienced a significant increase in general and administrative expenses, which rose to $6.4 million from $5.3 million in Q3, impacting overall profitability.
Cargo Volume Decline: The company noted a reduction in cargo volumes towards the end of November, which is typically a seasonal trend, but it indicates potential challenges in maintaining volume levels.
Iron Ore Volume Decline: Brazilian iron ore volumes decreased by 13% quarter-on-quarter, which could negatively impact shipping demand and revenue.
Trade War Impact on Earnings: The ongoing trade war and tariffs are expected to negatively affect sentiment and dry bulk demand over time, posing a risk to future earnings.
