Should You Buy Global Net Lease Inc (GNL) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.
Conclusion
Hold
Latest Price
9.520
1 Day change
1.38%
52 Week Range
9.650
Analysis Updated At
2026/01/28
Not a good buy right now for a beginner long-term investor who wants to act immediately. While the longer-term trend (moving averages) is constructive, the latest fundamentals show shrinking revenue and a sizable net loss (2025/Q3), and options positioning is skewed bearish (high put open interest). The risk/reward isn’t attractive enough to justify buying today at ~$9.48 given weakening momentum and negative growth trends.
Technical Analysis
Trend/structure: Bullish moving-average stack (SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200) suggests the broader price structure is trending up.
Momentum: MACD histogram is slightly negative (-0.000769) and expanding lower, indicating momentum is weakening despite the bullish MA setup.
RSI: RSI_6 at 59.46 is neutral-to-mildly bullish (not oversold), so there’s no clear “value dip” signal.
Key levels: Pivot/support near 9.339; if it fails, next supports are 9.075 then 8.912. Resistance levels are 9.602 then 9.765.
Near-term pattern odds: Similar-pattern study implies ~70% chance of a -1.86% move next day and -0.33% next week, but +16.79% over the next month—i.e., choppy/soft near-term with potential upside later.
Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals
- [AI Stock Picker](module://ai_stock_pick): No signal on given stock today.
- [SwingMax](module://swingmax): No signal on given stock today.
Options Data
Bearish
Open Interest Put-Call Ratio
Bullish
Option Volume Put-Call Ratio
Positioning/sentiment: Open interest is put-heavy (put OI 4441 vs call OI 1277; OI put/call 3.48), which typically reflects more bearish positioning and/or heavier downside hedging.
Activity: Very light volume (20 calls, 0 puts) and volume put/call at 0.0—so today’s flow doesn’t strongly confirm the bearish OI, but the standing positioning remains defensive.
Volatility: 30D IV ~32.87 vs HV ~27.41 with IV percentile 64 suggests options are priced relatively rich; this often coincides with uncertainty rather than strong bullish conviction.
Technical Summary
Sell
3
Buy
12
Positive Catalysts
Bullish moving-average alignment supports a longer-term uptrend backdrop.
Gross margin improved in 2025/Q3 (52.53%, +2.94% YoY), which is one of the few improving operating metrics.
Next earnings catalyst: QDEC 2025 earnings on 2026-02-26 after hours (EPS est. 0.19), which could re-rate the stock if results confirm a turnaround.
Post-market price uptick (+0.96%) hints at some dip-buying interest, albeit small.
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
Fundamentals deteriorated in the latest reported quarter (2025/Q3): revenue down -12.73% YoY and net income deeply negative (-$71.4M).
Momentum is weakening (MACD histogram negative and expanding), increasing the chance of near-term pullback.
Options open interest is strongly put-skewed (OI put/call 3.48), a bearish/defensive sentiment tell.
No supportive near-term news flow (no news in the recent week) to counteract the weak growth/loss narrative.
Similar-pattern odds lean negative for the next day/week.
Financial Performance
Latest quarter: 2025/Q3.
Revenue: $121.0M, down -12.73% YoY (negative top-line trend).
Net income: -$71.4M, down -6.91% YoY (losses persist).
EPS: -0.32, down -3.03% YoY (still negative profitability).
Gross margin: 52.53%, up +2.94% YoY (a relative bright spot, but not yet translating into profitability).
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
No analyst rating/price-target change data was provided, so a recent Wall Street trend (upgrades/downgrades or target raises/cuts) can’t be confirmed here. Based on the data available: Pros would point to improving gross margin and a technically constructive MA trend; cons would focus on declining revenue, ongoing losses, and put-heavy options positioning. Politician/influential trading: no recent congress trading data available; hedge fund and insider trend data are neutral with no significant recent activity.
Wall Street analysts forecast GNL stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for GNL is 10.67 USD with a low forecast of 10 USD and a high forecast of 12 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
3 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast GNL stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for GNL is 10.67 USD with a low forecast of 10 USD and a high forecast of 12 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
3 Buy
0 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 9.390
Low
10
Averages
10.67
High
12
Current: 9.390
Low
10
Averages
10.67
High
12
KeyBanc
Sector Weight -> Overweight
upgrade
$9
AI Analysis
2025-08-19
Reason
KeyBanc
Price Target
$9
AI Analysis
2025-08-19
upgrade
Sector Weight -> Overweight
Reason
KeyBanc upgraded Global Net Lease to Overweight from Sector Weight with a $9 price target. The firm repositioned ratings in the net lease group post the Q2 reports. The upgrade of Global Net Lease is based on the company's better than expected execution on its capital recycling program, the analyst tells investors in a research note. KeyBanc sees an improving balance sheet and leverage profile as well as attractive valuation for the company.
Colliers
Neutral -> Buy
upgrade
$12
2025-08-07
Reason
Colliers
Price Target
$12
2025-08-07
upgrade
Neutral -> Buy
Reason
Colliers upgraded Global Net Lease to Buy from Neutral with a $12 price target.
Unlock Full Analyst Thesis， Get the complete breakdown of rating reason for GNL
