Should I Buy GCO? GCO 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy Genesco Inc (GCO) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Hold

Latest Price

30.750

1 Day change

0.10%

52 Week Range

43.150

Analysis Updated At

2026/01/28

GCO is not a good buy right now for a beginner, long-term investor who wants to put money to work immediately. The stock is breaking down technically (below key support), fundamentals in the latest quarter show profit/margin deterioration despite modest revenue growth, insiders are net sellers, and Wall Street just cut targets after a guidance reset. If you already own it, this is a HOLD (not an add). If you don’t own it, I would NOT initiate a new long position today. **Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals** - [AI Stock Picker](module://ai_stock_pick): no signal on given stock today. - [SwingMax](module://swingmax): No signal on given stock recently.

Technical Analysis

Price closed at 30.72 (-4.30%), now below the S1 support (31.709), with the next notable support around S2 (29.76). Overhead resistance is heavy: pivot ~34.864, then R1 ~38.02. - Momentum: MACD histogram is negative (-0.288) and expanding lower, confirming downside momentum. - RSI(6) ~32.8: near oversold, so a short-term bounce is possible, but it’s not a confirmed reversal. - Trend/MAs: The moving averages are structurally bullish (SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200), but the current selloff is overwhelming near-term sentiment and has pushed price into/through support. - Pattern-based odds: Similar-pattern analysis suggests ~80% chance of a small decline next day (-1.08%), flat-ish next week (+0.25%), and modest gain next month (+2.99%). This points to weak near-term risk/reward for an impatient buyer.

Options Data

Bearish

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bullish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Options are signaling caution: - Positioning: Put open interest materially exceeds calls (OI put/call 1.92), consistent with bearish/hedged sentiment. - Flow today: Volume put/call is 0.88 (slightly more calls than puts), but today’s volume is extremely elevated vs 30-day average (~1020%), which often happens around heightened uncertainty. - Volatility: Implied vol (30d) ~88% vs historical ~47.8%, with IV percentile 78—options are expensive and the market is pricing large moves, typically not a calm long-term entry backdrop.

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

Revenue still grew YoY in FY2026 Q3 (+3.34%), showing demand hasn’t collapsed.
One bullish analyst remains (Seaport Buy) citing a potential substantial EPS increase in FY
Near-term: RSI near oversold and proximity to S2 support (29.
could produce a tactical bounce (not a strong long-term entry signal).

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Guidance was lowered materially (per analyst notes), and comps decelerated into Black Friday, implying weakening traffic trends.
Profitability deterioration: net income, EPS, and gross margin all declined sharply YoY in the latest quarter.
Insider activity: insiders are selling, with selling amount up ~133.76% over the last month.
Options positioning skewed bearish via open interest (put/call 1.
alongside very high IV—market expects turbulence.
No supportive news catalysts in the past week to counter the negative reset.

Financial Performance

Latest reported quarter: FY2026 Q3. - Revenue: 616.217M, up +3.34% YoY (modest top-line growth). - Net income: 5.356M, down -128.29% YoY. - EPS: 0.50, down -128.41% YoY. - Gross margin: 46.84%, down -2.09% YoY. Takeaway: Growth is present at the revenue line, but margins and earnings are deteriorating—this is a weak fundamental setup for an immediate long-term buy.

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

Recent analyst trend is negative: multiple firms cut price targets after the Q3 miss and guidance reduction. - Truist: Hold, PT cut to $27 from $31 (cites Q3 miss, lowered guidance, decelerating comps). - Jefferies: Hold, PT cut to $26 from $29 (margin pressure, softer traffic). - Seaport Research: Buy, PT cut to $38 from $42 (still bullish longer-term, expects FY27 EPS improvement). Wall Street pros/cons: The ‘pro’ case is strategic initiatives/market share and a potential FY27 earnings rebound; the ‘con’ case is near-term demand/margin pressure and lowered outlook. Net, the Street message is: cautious now, hope for later.

3 Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast GCO stock price to fall over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for GCO is 30.33 USD with a low forecast of 26 USD and a high forecast of 38 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

1 Buy

2 Hold

0 Sell

Moderate Buy

Current: 30.720

Low

Averages

30.33

High

Current: 30.720

Low

Averages

30.33

High

Truist

Hold

downgrade

$31 -> $27

AI Analysis

2025-12-05

Reason

Truist

Price Target

$31 -> $27

AI Analysis

2025-12-05

downgrade

Hold

Reason

Truist lowered the firm's price target on Genesco to $27 from $31 and keeps a Hold rating on the shares. The stock fell following a Q3 miss and lowering guidance well below the Street for Q4, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Journeys Q3 comps came in at up 6% vs. the double digit quarter-to-date comp at the time of the Q2 call as trends decelerated during the leading up to Black Friday, and the company believes it may see a similar pull-back following the Holiday season, Truist added.

Seaport Research

Buy

downgrade

$42 -> $38

2025-12-05

Reason

Seaport Research

Price Target

$42 -> $38

2025-12-05

downgrade

Buy

Reason

Seaport Research lowered the firm's price target on Genesco to $38 from $42 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm is disappointed by the revised guidance for FY26, but remains bullish on Journey's path and anticipates substantial EPS increase in FY27, the analyst tells investors.

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GCO Should I Buy

GCO Should I Buy

Should You Buy Genesco Inc (GCO) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Technical Analysis

Options Data

Technical Summary

Positive Catalysts

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Financial Performance

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

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