Should I Buy FWONA? FWONA 2026 Analysis

Should You Buy Formula One Group (FWONA) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Conclusion

Hold

Latest Price

77.960

1 Day change

-2.23%

52 Week Range

99.520

Analysis Updated At

2026/02/04

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Not a good buy right now for an impatient buyer: trend is still bearish (SMA_200 > SMA_20 > SMA_5) and momentum remains negative (MACD histogram below 0).
Price is sitting right on the pivot (~79.63); a weak technical setup near a key level increases the odds of chop or a retest of support (S1 ~77.08).
Options positioning is modestly bullish (put/call OI ratio 0.54) but volume is extremely light, so sentiment signal is not strong enough to override the bearish tape.
Insider activity is a clear negative: insiders are selling aggressively (selling amount up ~22740.95% last month).
Intellectia signals provide no “must-buy-now” edge today (no AI Stock Picker / no SwingMax).

Technical Analysis

Trend: Bearish structure with moving averages stacked negatively (SMA_200 > SMA_20 > SMA_5), implying rallies may face selling pressure.
Momentum: MACD histogram -0.125 (below zero) and only slightly contracting—still negative momentum, just lessening.
RSI: RSI(6) ~40.9, neutral-to-weak (not oversold), suggesting limited “snap-back” edge for an impatient entry.
Levels to watch: Pivot 79.63 (current area). Resistance R1 82.18 then R2 83.76. Support S1 77.08 then S2 75.51.
Pattern-based short horizon odds: Similar-pattern stats point to mild next-day upside (+0.83%) but negative bias over 1 week (-1.71%) and 1 month (-1.81%), aligning with the bearish MA trend.

Options Data

Bullish

Open Interest Put-Call Ratio

Bullish

Option Volume Put-Call Ratio

Open interest: Calls 316 vs puts 170 (OI put/call 0.54) = positioning skewed more bullish than bearish.
Volume: Extremely thin (total volume 7; put volume 0), so the day’s put/call volume ratio of 0.0 is not a strong sentiment read.
Volatility: IV 30D ~34.27 vs historical vol ~18.4; IV percentile ~88.45 suggests options are priced rich and the market expects larger moves than recent realized.
Positioning/flow strength: Today’s volume vs 30D avg ~140, but off a tiny base; not a “crowded” or high-conviction tape.

Technical Summary

Sell

Buy

Positive Catalysts

- Strong top-line growth in the latest reported quarter (2025/Q3 revenue +19.10% YoY), consistent with a healthy demand backdrop.
- Gross margin improved to ~27.93 (+11.59% YoY), indicating better unit economics despite profit pressure.
- Analyst stance is constructive: TD Cowen reiterated Buy and nudged price target up to $107 (from $106), citing Q3 outperformance on sponsorship and hospitality.

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

- Profitability deterioration in 2025/Q3: net income -43.59% YoY and EPS -44.68% YoY, which can cap near-term multiple expansion.
- Strong negative insider signal: insiders are selling and the selling amount surged ~22740.95% over the last month.
- Technical setup is still bearish (downtrend via moving averages + negative MACD), which is unfavorable for an “buy now” decision.
- No recent news catalysts in the past week to shift sentiment or re-rate the stock near-term.

Financial Performance

Latest quarter: 2025/Q3.
Revenue: $1.085B, up +19.10% YoY (strong growth).
Net income: $66M, down -43.59% YoY (meaningful earnings compression).
EPS: $0.26, down -44.68% YoY.
Gross margin: 27.93, up +11.59% YoY (operational efficiency improving, but not flowing through to bottom-line yet).

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

Most recent change: (2025-11-06) TD Cowen raised price target to $107 from $106 and maintained a Buy rating.
Wall Street pro view (pros): confidence in F1 operating momentum; Q3 beat driven by stronger sponsorship and hospitality.
Wall Street con view (cons): despite operational positives, current data shows earnings/EPS down sharply YoY, and heavy insider selling conflicts with the bullish narrative.

3 Analyst Rating

Wall Street analysts forecast FWONA stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for FWONA is 108.33 USD with a low forecast of 107 USD and a high forecast of 110 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.

3 Buy

0 Hold

0 Sell

Strong Buy

Current: 79.740

Low

107

Averages

108.33

High

110

Current: 79.740

Low

107

Averages

108.33

High

110

TD Cowen

Buy

maintain

$106 -> $107

AI Analysis

2025-11-06

Reason

TD Cowen

Price Target

$106 -> $107

AI Analysis

2025-11-06

maintain

Buy

Reason

TD Cowen raised the firm's price target on Liberty Formula One to $107 from $106 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm said Q3 results exceeded expectations, with F1 outperforming on stronger sponsorship and hospitality.

TD Cowen

Lance Vitanza

Buy

maintain

$105 -> $106

2025-09-18

Reason

TD Cowen

Lance Vitanza

Price Target

$105 -> $106

2025-09-18

maintain

Buy

Reason

TD Cowen analyst Lance Vitanza raised the firm's price target on Liberty Formula One to $106 from $105 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares. The firm met with management at the San Marino GP which reinforced MotoGP's potential as they estimate promoter renewals are delivering 15-20% uplifts with annual escalators while sponsorship is shifting beyond endemic partners towards global brands.

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FWONA Should I Buy

FWONA Should I Buy

Should You Buy Formula One Group (FWONA) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.

Technical Analysis

Options Data

Technical Summary

Positive Catalysts

Neutral/Negative Catalysts

Financial Performance

Growth

Profitability

Efficiency

Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends

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