Should You Buy Fox Factory Holding Corp (FOXF) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.
Conclusion
Hold
Latest Price
18.490
1 Day change
-1.81%
52 Week Range
31.180
Analysis Updated At
2026/01/28
FOXF is not a good buy right now for a beginner long-term investor who wants to act immediately. The stock is sitting just above support with bearish momentum (negative, expanding MACD) while fundamentals show revenue growth but a slip into losses, and Wall Street has been cutting targets while staying mostly Neutral. If you already own it, holding makes more sense than adding here; if you don’t own it, this setup does not justify starting a new long-term position today.
Technical Analysis
Price is weak and trading below/around the pivot (Pivot 19.211 vs. last ~18.71–18.83). Momentum is bearish: MACD histogram is negative (-0.0259) and expanding lower, suggesting downside pressure is building rather than stabilizing. RSI(6) at ~42.8 is neutral-to-soft (not oversold), implying there may still be room to fall before a technical snap-back is likely. Key levels: immediate support S1 ~18.678 (price is hovering just above it) and next support S2 ~18.349; resistance levels are R1 ~19.744 then R2 ~20.073. Converging moving averages point to consolidation, but with momentum currently favoring the downside, the risk is a support break before a sustained recovery.
Options Data
Bullish
Open Interest Put-Call Ratio
Bullish
Option Volume Put-Call Ratio
Open interest put/call of 0.65 and an extremely low volume put/call of 0.01 indicate call-heavy positioning and near-term optimism/speculation. Options activity is elevated versus average (today’s volume ~833% of 30D avg), but implied volatility is very high (30D IV ~89% with IV percentile ~86), meaning the market is pricing large moves and options are expensive—often seen when sentiment is mixed and traders expect volatility around uncertainty (e.g., business turnaround, upcoming earnings). Net: sentiment from options skews bullish, but it’s also “high-vol” bullish rather than calm conviction.
Technical Summary
Sell
8
Buy
5
Positive Catalysts
is a potential catalyst if results confirm stabilization.
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
Technical momentum is currently bearish (negative, expanding MACD) and price is sitting near support, increasing the chance of a breakdown before any durable uptrend. Financial profitability deteriorated into a loss in 2025/Q3 (net income -$0.634M; EPS -0.02), which makes the long-term story harder to underwrite right now. Core end markets remain challenging: multiple analysts cite ongoing weakness in the Bike segment and a downturn at Marucci, plus cautious ordering/inventory behavior. Analyst targets have been repeatedly cut after a weak Q3 and guidance reduction, signaling lowered confidence in near-term recovery. No supportive news flow in the last week means there’s no fresh positive catalyst driving immediate demand.
Financial Performance
Latest reported quarter: 2025/Q3. Revenue rose to $376.355M (+4.80% YoY), showing top-line resilience. However, profitability weakened materially: net income fell to -$0.634M (-113.26% YoY) and EPS declined to -$0.02 (-118.18% YoY), indicating the company is struggling to convert sales into earnings in the current demand environment. A positive offset is gross margin improvement to 27.65 (up YoY), suggesting product mix/pricing or cost actions are helping, but not yet enough to deliver consistent earnings.
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Recent analyst trend is negative-to-neutral: multiple firms lowered price targets (Roth $21→$19, BofA $30→$26, Baird $30→$20, B. Riley $32→$20) while generally maintaining Neutral ratings; Stifel kept a Buy but cut target $33→$25, noting the turnaround may take about a year longer than expected. Wall Street ‘pros’ view: potential cyclical tailwinds (rates), strong aftermarket/powered-vehicle pockets, and a path to better free cash flow/debt reduction. ‘Cons’ view: persistent Bike/Marucci weakness, cautious channel ordering, lowered guidance, and a longer turnaround timeline—supporting the overall mostly Neutral stance.
Wall Street analysts forecast FOXF stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for FOXF is 22 USD with a low forecast of 19 USD and a high forecast of 26 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
5 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast FOXF stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for FOXF is 22 USD with a low forecast of 19 USD and a high forecast of 26 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
1 Buy
4 Hold
0 Sell
Hold
Current: 18.830
Low
19
Averages
22
High
26
Current: 18.830
Low
19
Averages
22
High
26
Roth Capital
Scott Stember
Neutral
downgrade
$21 -> $19
AI Analysis
2026-01-06
Reason
Roth Capital
Scott Stember
Price Target
$21 -> $19
AI Analysis
2026-01-06
downgrade
Neutral
Reason
Roth Capital analyst Scott Stember lowered the firm's price target on Fox Factory to $19 from $21 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. Following recent in-person and virtual meetings with Fox Factory management, Fox is at a crossroads, as weakness in the Bike segment and a downturn at Marucci are prompting efforts to better align costs with realistic growth targets, while prioritizing free cash flow generation and debt repayment, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
BofA
Neutral
downgrade
$30 -> $26
2025-11-10
Reason
BofA
Price Target
$30 -> $26
2025-11-10
downgrade
Neutral
Reason
BofA lowered the firm's price target on Fox Factory to $26 from $30 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. After the Q3 report, the firm lowered EPS estimates to reflect a still challenging end market outlook in bikes, which is partially offset by potential cyclical tailwinds in a more favorable rate environment.
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