Should You Buy Fluor Corp (FLR) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.
Conclusion
Hold
Latest Price
46.960
1 Day change
0.38%
52 Week Range
57.500
Analysis Updated At
2026/01/28
FLR is NOT a good buy right now for a beginner, long-term investor who doesn’t want to wait for a better entry. The chart is extended near resistance and options look bullish, but the latest reported fundamentals (2025/Q3) show sharp YoY deterioration (large loss and negative margin), and the news flow includes governance/legal overhang. Net: I would hold/avoid initiating a new long-term position today and reassess after the 2026-02-17 (QDEC 2025) earnings update.
Technical Analysis
Trend/structure is bullish, but near-term is stretched.
- Trend: Bullish moving-average stack (SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200) suggests an established uptrend.
- Momentum: MACD histogram +0.304 and expanding => bullish momentum still present.
- Overbought risk: RSI_6 = 77.93 (overbought), often associated with weaker forward returns if buying immediately.
- Levels: Pivot 44.94 is the key near support; below that S1 43.29. Price 46.45 is pressing R1 46.59; next resistance R2 47.61.
- Pattern-based forecast provided: ~70% chance of flat next day (+0.02%) but negative skew next week (-2.28%) and next month (-3.51%), which argues against chasing here.
**Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals**
- [AI Stock Picker](module://ai_stock_pick): no signal on given stock today.
- [SwingMax](module://swingmax): entry signal triggered on 2026-01-05; price is up ~4.38% since. That supports the idea the swing entry already occurred and the current level is less attractive than the signal date, especially with RSI stretched near resistance.
Options Data
Bullish
Open Interest Put-Call Ratio
Bullish
Option Volume Put-Call Ratio
Options positioning/flow leans bullish (call-skewed):
- Open Interest Put/Call = 0.41 (more calls than puts outstanding) => bullish positioning.
- Volume Put/Call = 0.65 with call volume 14,123 vs put volume 9,179 => bullish day-of-flow.
- Activity: total volume 23,302 is ~138% of 30D average and open interest is elevated (~119% vs avg) => sentiment is active and constructive.
- Volatility: IV 30d ~49.27 vs HV ~51.36 (roughly in line). IV percentile ~58.6 suggests mid-high options pricing (not extremely cheap).
Overall: options sentiment is positive, but it’s not enough to offset the fundamental/news overhang for a long-term beginner entry today.
Technical Summary
Sell
4
Buy
10
Positive Catalysts
- Backlog/stability: secured $3.3B in construction contracts in Q3 2025, supporting forward revenue visibility.
- Project execution tailwinds cited by analysts (ES segment re-ramp and favorable completion outcome) that previously supported an earnings beat/guidance raise.
- Business development: selected as partner (with WSP) for USA Rare Earth’s Round Top rare earth mine development, a potential multi-year project catalyst.
- Upcoming catalyst: QDEC 2025 earnings on 2026-02-17 (pre-market) could clarify margins, cash flow, and outlook.
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
was very weak with steep YoY declines and a large net loss, raising questions about execution/contract profitability.
Financial Performance
Latest quarter provided: 2025/Q3.
- Revenue: $3.368B, down 17.73% YoY (shrinking top line).
- Net income: -$697M, down 1390.74% YoY (major deterioration).
- EPS: -4.30, down 1487.10% YoY.
- Gross margin: -13.33% (negative), down 720% YoY.
Interpretation: the quarter shows severe profitability issues and negative margin dynamics. For a long-term beginner, this is not the type of growth/profit trend that justifies buying immediately at a technically extended level. Next key check is QDEC 2025 earnings (2026-02-17) for evidence that margins and earnings power are normalizing.
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Recent analyst actions are mixed, with price targets clustering around the high-40s to mid-50s but showing some trimming:
- UBS (2025-11-13): Buy, PT cut to $52 from $56 (still positive, but moderated).
- Baird (2025-11-10): Neutral, PT cut to $48 from $52 (more cautious).
- Truist (2025-11-10): Buy, PT raised to $56 from $51 (more constructive; cited Q3 beat/guidance raise and segment/project improvements).
- Citi note (2025-12-10) was primarily about NuScale (SMR) but highlights uncertainty tied to Fluor’s stake monetization impacting SMR; it reinforces that related monetization actions can create headline volatility.
Wall Street pros/cons view:
Pros: improving execution signals in parts of the business, contract/backlog strength, and some analysts maintaining Buy ratings with PTs above current price.
Cons: at least one Neutral stance and multiple PT cuts, reflecting uneven confidence; the sharp fundamental deterioration in the latest quarter provided makes the bull case more dependent on a turnaround.
Politicians/congress: No recent congress trading data available (no evidence of notable politician activity in the last 90 days from the provided data).
Wall Street analysts forecast FLR stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for FLR is 49.25 USD with a low forecast of 40 USD and a high forecast of 57 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
6 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast FLR stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for FLR is 49.25 USD with a low forecast of 40 USD and a high forecast of 57 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
3 Buy
3 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 46.780
Low
40
Averages
49.25
High
57
Current: 46.780
Low
40
Averages
49.25
High
57
Citi
Sell
downgrade
AI Analysis
2025-12-10
Reason
Citi
Price Target
AI Analysis
2025-12-10
downgrade
Sell
Reason
Citi lowered the firm's price target on NuScale Power (SMR) to $18.50 from $37.50 and keeps a Sell rating on the shares. The firm attributes the stock's 52% decline in the past quarter to Fluor's (FLR) plans to monetize its stake and uncertainty around NuScale's first firm contract. Citi thinks the stock will remain pressured as the company's sales from existing contracts decline and Fluor continues to sell shares. NuScale inking a contract with the Tennessee Valley Authority in the near- to medium-term seems unlikely, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
UBS
Steven Fisher
Buy
downgrade
$56 -> $52
2025-11-13
Reason
UBS
Steven Fisher
Price Target
$56 -> $52
2025-11-13
downgrade
Buy
Reason
UBS analyst Steven Fisher lowered the firm's price target on Fluor to $52 from $56 and keeps a Buy rating on the shares.
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