Not a good buy right now: price trend is bearish (SMA_200 > SMA_20 > SMA_5) and momentum is still deteriorating (MACD histogram negative and expanding).
Downside odds skew near-term: pattern-based projection shows ~70% chance of about -2.17% next day.
Options market signals are distorted by extremely high IV and minimal/zero volume today, making sentiment less reliable; risk/reward is unfavorable for an impatient entry.
With earnings (QDEC 2025) on 2026-02-16 after-hours and an EPS estimate of -0.14, the near-term is catalyst-heavy but not set up technically for a clean long entry.
Technical Analysis
Trend: Bearish structure with moving averages stacked down (SMA_200 > SMA_20 > SMA_5), indicating sustained downtrend.
RSI: RSI_6 at 27.18 suggests oversold/pressure, but not a confirmed reversal signal on its own.
Levels: Pivot 2.01 (overhead). Immediate support S1 1.788 then S2 1.651; resistance R1 2.231 then R2 2.368.
Practical read: At ~1.86 post-market, price is hovering just above S1; a break below ~1.79 increases odds of a quick move toward ~1.65.
Options Data
Bullish
Open Interest Put-Call Ratio
Bullish
Option Volume Put-Call Ratio
Positioning: Put/Call open interest ratio 0.06 (call-heavy), typically a bullish/speculative tilt.
Activity: Today’s options volume is 0 (put and call), so the current session doesn’t confirm real-time bullish demand.
Volatility: 30D IV ~421.88 vs historical vol ~87.82; IV percentile 96.38 → options are priced for extreme moves (expensive), often ahead of catalysts.
Takeaway: Sentiment appears call-leaning in OI, but the actionable signal is weak due to zero volume and extremely elevated IV (more consistent with event-risk pricing than confident directional flow).
Technical Summary
Sell
9
Buy
2
Positive Catalysts
holds.
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
indicates elevated event-risk; price can move sharply against long entries.
Profitability: Net income 554,242 (down -239.60% YoY) → sharp deterioration vs prior year.
EPS: 0.01 (down -133.33% YoY) → earnings power weakened materially.
Gross margin: reported at 100 (flat YoY) → unusually high; regardless, bottom-line and EPS trends are the bigger concern and they worsened.
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
No analyst rating or price-target change data was provided, so no identifiable recent trend in upgrades/downgrades or target revisions.
Wall Street pro/con view cannot be reliably summarized from the dataset; the measurable external positioning here is neutral hedge fund/insider trend data (no significant recent activity) and event-risk pricing in options.
Wall Street analysts forecast FLD stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for FLD is 7 USD with a low forecast of 7 USD and a high forecast of 7 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
1 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast FLD stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for FLD is 7 USD with a low forecast of 7 USD and a high forecast of 7 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
1 Buy
0 Hold
0 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 1.740
Low
7
Averages
7
High
7
Current: 1.740
Low
7
Averages
7
High
7
Cantor Fitzgerald
NULL -> Overweight
initiated
$6.50
AI Analysis
2025-07-28
Reason
Cantor Fitzgerald
Price Target
$6.50
AI Analysis
2025-07-28
initiated
NULL -> Overweight
Reason
Cantor Fitzgerald initiated coverage of Fold Holdings with an Overweight rating and $6.50 price target.
Cantor Fitzgerald
Overweight
initiated
$6.50
2025-07-28
Reason
Cantor Fitzgerald
Price Target
$6.50
2025-07-28
initiated
Overweight
Reason
Cantor Fitzgerald initiated coverage of Fold Holdings with an Overweight rating and $6.50 price target. The firm says Fold is a bitcoin treasury company with a legitimate underlying business. The company's core product is a bitcoin debit card, but it will soon be rolling out bitcoin gift cards and a credit card, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Cantor views Fold as "unique" since it has a a core business focused on driving adoption of bitcoin and the ability to execute treasury operations. It likes the stock's risk/reward at current levels.
Unlock Full Analyst Thesis， Get the complete breakdown of rating reason for FLD
