Ford Motor Company (F) Q4 2025 Earnings Call Transcript
Access earnings results, analyst expectations, report, slides, earnings call, and transcript.
Overview
The earnings call highlights Ford's strategic advancements, including strong financial metrics, optimistic guidance, and strategic investments in EV and energy storage. Despite challenges like Novelis disruptions, Ford's recovery plans and cost improvements signal resilience. Positive market sentiment is bolstered by shareholder return strategies and competitive positioning in key markets. However, uncertainties in regulatory policies and competition remain. Overall, the outlook is positive, driven by strategic initiatives and strong demand, likely resulting in a 2% to 8% stock price increase over the next two weeks.
Key Financial Performance
Revenue $187 billion, grew for the fifth consecutive year. Reasons for growth include expansion in share of revenue, including nontraditional segments like hybrid trucks, and growth in higher-margin paid software subscriptions.
Adjusted EBIT $6.8 billion for the full year, including a $2 billion headwind from Novelis fires and a $2 billion net tariff impact. Without these one-time impacts, EBIT would have been $7.7 billion. Reasons for change include cost reductions and improved quality.
Free Cash Flow $3.5 billion, reflecting disciplined inventory management and prioritization of balance sheet flexibility.
Ford Pro Revenue $66 billion, with EBIT of $6.8 billion and a double-digit margin. Reasons for performance include record sales of Transit (up 6%) and Super Duty (up 10%), as well as growth in paid software subscriptions (up 30%).
Ford Model e Revenue Revenue and volume growth of 73% and 69%, respectively. EBIT losses improved to $4.8 billion loss, driven by cost reductions and higher volume in Europe.
Ford Blue EBIT $3 billion, supported by lower warranty costs, cost improvements, and growth in software and physical services. Revenue was roughly flat due to higher net pricing offsetting a 5% decline in wholesales.
Ford Credit EBT $2.6 billion, up 55% year-over-year, reflecting improved financing margin and high-quality book origination with FICO scores exceeding 750.
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Operating Highlights
EV Business Shift: Shifted focus to high-volume, affordable EVs. Launching a cost-efficient universal EV platform for profitable growth in lower-price segments. Multiple vehicles to be launched off this platform, starting with a midsized pickup.
Ford Energy: Launched as a strategic business with a short payback period. Uses manufacturing muscle and cost advantage with LFP batteries to diversify revenue and derisk core automotive business.
Next-Generation Vehicles: Doubling down on iconic models like F-150 and Super Duty with breakthroughs in cost, technology, powertrain choice, and functional features. Expanding off-road and performance lineups.
U.S. Market Share: Increased to 13.2%, the best performance in 6 years. Ford Pro's Class 1 through 7 market share in the U.S. is over 42%.
European Market: Ford is the #1 commercial brand for the 11th straight year. New product introductions in Europe drove revenue and volume growth of 73% and 69%, respectively, for Ford Model e.
Cost and Quality Improvements: Lowered material and warranty costs. Achieved $1 billion in industrial cost improvements. Improved structural costs and mix of higher-margin products in Ford Model e.
Software and Services Growth: Paid software subscriptions grew by 30% in 2025. Software and physical services now contribute 19% to Ford Pro's EBIT, rapidly approaching the 20% target.
Capital Allocation: Prioritized investments in high-margin, high-growth opportunities like Ford Energy and software services. Disciplined approach to capital allocation to improve business run rate.
Partnerships: Formed strategic partnerships with CATL and Renault to access IP, lower capital expenditures, and improve scale.
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Risk or Challenges
Tariffs and Regulatory Changes: The company faced a $2 billion headwind from Novelis fires and a $2 billion net tariff impact, with unexpected late-year changes in tariff credits for auto parts. This creates financial unpredictability and operational challenges.
Supply Chain Disruptions: Production losses due to Novelis and other supply chain issues impacted operations, including a 5% decline in wholesale sales for Ford Blue.
Economic and Commodity Pressures: Higher commodity prices driven by inflation and pressure on DRAM are expected to increase costs by $1 billion in 2026.
EV Business Challenges: Ford Model e reported EBIT losses of $4.8 billion in 2025, with continued losses expected in 2026 due to increased investment in Gen 2 products and start-up costs for Ford Energy.
European Regulatory Environment: The challenging macroeconomic and regulatory landscape in Europe is impacting Ford Pro's operations and profitability.
Novelis Impact: Temporary costs of $1.5 billion to $2 billion are expected in 2026 to ensure aluminum supply continuity, with these costs not expected to repeat in 2027.
Capital Allocation and Investment Risks: Significant capital expenditures of $9.5 billion to $10.5 billion are planned for 2026, including $1.5 billion for Ford Energy, which could strain financial resources if returns are delayed or lower than expected.
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Guidance & Outlook
2026 Adjusted EBIT: Ford expects company adjusted EBIT of $8 billion to $10 billion for 2026.
2026 Adjusted Free Cash Flow: Ford projects adjusted free cash flow of $5 billion to $6 billion for 2026.
Capital Expenditures: Ford plans capital expenditures of $9.5 billion to $10.5 billion in 2026, including $1.5 billion for Ford Energy.
Ford Pro EBIT: Ford Pro is expected to deliver EBIT of $6.5 billion to $7.5 billion in 2026.
Ford Model e Losses: Ford Model e is projected to incur losses of $4 billion to $4.5 billion in 2026, with improvements in Gen 1 products and increased costs for Gen 2 products and Ford Energy.
Ford Blue EBIT: Ford Blue is expected to achieve EBIT of $4 billion to $4.5 billion in 2026.
Ford Credit EBT: Ford Credit's EBT is projected to be about $2.5 billion in 2026.
High-Margin Software and Physical Services: Ford anticipates a 6.5% growth in high-margin software and physical services profit in 2026.
Novelis Impact: Ford expects year-over-year improvement of about $1 billion from Novelis, with temporary costs of $1.5 billion to $2 billion in 2026.
EV Strategy Charges: Ford plans to record about $7 billion in charges related to its updated EV strategy and BOSK investment disposition in 2026 and 2027, with up to $5.5 billion in cash expenditures weighted in 2026.
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Shareholder Return Plan
Dividend Declaration: Ford declared a first quarter regular dividend of $0.15 per share.
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Key Q&A
Q:What are the assumptions for 2026 regarding market factors and Novelis?
A:Sherry House explained that the Novelis improvement assumes $2.5 billion to $3 billion, reflecting the nonrecurrence of 2025 losses and capacity actions at Dearborn and Kentucky truck plants. Temporary costs of $1.5 billion to $2 billion are expected for supply continuity of aluminum until the Novelis hot mill is operational between May and September. Positive market factors include the sunset of low-margin nameplates and benefits from changes in the U.S. regulatory environment. Cost improvements are expected to be roughly flat, excluding Novelis impacts, with $1 billion in material and warranty cost improvements and $1 billion lower tariff costs year-over-year.
Q:How is Ford approaching investments in EV and AV given past inefficiencies?
A:James Farley stated that Ford is focusing on customer preferences and targeting profitable EVs in the U.S. market, particularly $35,000 EVs. The strategy includes hybrid and EREV investments for specific duty cycles like large trucks. Overseas, Ford is leveraging partnerships with Renault and Volkswagen for cost-efficient solutions. The company is also preparing for potential pricing challenges from Chinese competitors and regulatory uncertainties.
Q:What is the impact of Novelis on 2026 EBIT and supply reliability?
A:Sherry House confirmed that the nonrecurrence of $2 billion in 2025 losses will improve 2026 EBIT by $1 billion net, after accounting for $1.5 billion to $2 billion in temporary costs. Kumar Galhotra added that the Novelis mill is expected to restart between May and September, with contingency plans in place to ensure sufficient aluminum supply.
Q:How is Ford addressing competition in North American trucks and European LCVs?
A:Andrew Frick highlighted Ford's strong F-Series lineup and market leadership, with revenue share growth of 2 points and volume share growth of 1.5 points in 2025. The company is optimizing its market equation by balancing stock, share, and incentive spending. Alicia Davis noted strong demand and solid pricing in the European LCV market, supported by competitive products and services for fleet customers.
Q:What are Ford's capital expenditure plans and their impact on profitability?
A:Sherry House stated that capital spending will increase by over $1 billion in 2026, driven by investments in Ford Energy and high-return areas like larger trucks and multi-energy portfolios. James Farley emphasized that the goal is to achieve an 8% EBIT margin by reallocating capital to profitable segments and decelerating Model e investments.
Q:What is the timeline for Model e profitability and key levers for improvement?
A:Sherry House indicated steady improvement in Model e profitability through 2029, driven by the introduction of UEV products in 2027, additional variants in 2028, and the launch of B vehicles in Europe. Gen 1 products will become lower volume over time.
Q:What was the regulatory change affecting 2025 tariff costs, and how does it impact 2026?
A:Steven Croley explained that a credit against tariff liabilities on parts became effective on November 1, 2025, instead of May 3, resulting in a $1.9 billion impact. This is a one-time hit, and the credit will be usable going forward.
Q:What is Ford's strategy for Europe, particularly in passenger cars and EVs?
A:James Farley stated that Ford's Pro strategy remains profitable, while the passenger car business is being restructured to improve profitability. The company is leveraging Renault's platform for cost-efficient B-sized EVs and focusing on specific segments to support dealer profitability. Regulatory policies in the EU and U.K. will significantly influence the market.
Q:What is Ford's approach to energy storage and its market potential?
A:James Farley highlighted the growing demand for battery storage in data centers and grid stability. Ford plans to leverage its LFP technology and manufacturing expertise to offer end-to-end solutions for customers. The company aims to scale revenue quickly and sees this as a natural extension of its Pro business.
Q:Why is Ford developing Level 3 autonomy in-house instead of partnering?
A:James Farley explained that in-house development allows for cost savings and better control over the customer experience. By integrating hardware and software internally, Ford can offer affordable Level 3 autonomy in high-volume vehicles like UEVs, rather than luxury models.
Q:What progress has Ford made in closing the $7 billion cost gap with peers?
A:Ford achieved $1.5 billion in cost improvements in 2025 and expects another $1 billion in 2026. The company is embedding cost-saving measures into its next-generation products, which will further reduce costs and change the company culture.
Q:How is Ford managing inventory levels and production in 2026?
A:Andrew Frick stated that Ford ended 2025 at the low end of its inventory range and plans to maintain a 55 to 65 retail day supply in 2026. F-150 inventory will be rebuilt in the second half of the year, supported by strong demand.
Q:What is the expected volume recovery for Novelis in 2026?
A:Sherry House stated that Ford lost around 100,000 units in 2025 and plans to increase production by 50,000 to 60,000 units in 2026. Temporary costs have increased due to a second fire in November 2025.
Q:What is driving the $2 billion increase in free cash flow guidance for 2026?
A:Sherry House attributed the increase to higher automotive EBIT, a $1 billion receivable from the U.S. government for tariffs, and higher capital spending in growth opportunities.
Q:Review of Unclear Management Responses
A:Management avoided providing specific details on the regulatory change affecting 2025 tariff costs, only stating that it was related to a credit against tariff liabilities on parts. Additionally, while discussing the profitability of the European passenger car market, James Farley mentioned regulatory policies as a significant factor but did not provide clear guidance on how these policies might evolve or their specific impact on Ford's strategy.
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Earnings Word Cloud
The most frequently occurring keywords in this quarter's earning call
America Truck
America policy
America survey
America vehicle
Blue mix
Blue position
CATL Renault
CEO CFO
CFO QA
City tomorrow
Class market
Credit factor
Duty Transit
Duty term
EBIT foundation
EBIT moat
EBIT takeaway
EV volume
EVs America
EVs compliance
Energy start
Ford Blue
Ford Energy
Ford IAS
Ford North
Ford competition
Ford cost
Ford dealer
Ford house
Model
chain
choice
experience
franchise
partner
partnership
power
road lineup
road map
technology
timer
tool
F Transcript
Ford Motor Company (F) Q4 2025 Earnings Call Transcript
Positive2-10
The earnings call highlights Ford's strategic advancements, including strong financial metrics, optimistic guidance, and strategic investments in EV and energy storage. Despite challenges like Novelis disruptions, Ford's recovery plans and cost improvements signal resilience. Positive market sentiment is bolstered by shareholder return strategies and competitive positioning in key markets. However, uncertainties in regulatory policies and competition remain. Overall, the outlook is positive, driven by strategic initiatives and strong demand, likely resulting in a 2% to 8% stock price increase over the next two weeks.
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The earnings call summary shows mixed signals: strong financial metrics with improved warranty costs and Ford Credit EBT, but weak guidance due to Novelis and chip issues. The Q&A further highlights production and political risks, and management's vague responses on key issues add uncertainty. Positive elements like strong Ford Blue pricing and strategic mix optimization are counterbalanced by potential Q4 EBIT impacts. Overall, the combination of positive and negative factors suggests a neutral stock price movement over the next two weeks.
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F Slides
F Report
Frequently Asked Questions
Where does this earnings call transcript come from?
All transcripts are sourced directly from the official live webcast or the company’s official investor relations website. We use the exact words spoken during the call with no paraphrasing of the core discussion.
How soon is the transcript available after the earnings call ends?
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No material content is ever changed or summarized in the “Full Transcript” section. We only correct obvious spoken typos (e.g., “um”, “ah”, repeated 10 times”, or clear misspoken ticker symbols) and add speaker names/titles for readability. Every substantive sentence remains 100% as spoken.
Why do some answers appear as “Unclear” or “Inaudible”?
When audio quality is poor or multiple speakers talk over each other, we mark the section instead of guessing. This ensures complete accuracy rather than introducing potential errors.
Who creates the AI Summary and Key Q&A highlights shown above the transcript?
They are generated by a specialized financial-language model trained exclusively on 15+ years of earnings transcripts. The model extracts financial figures, guidance, and tone with 97%+ accuracy and is regularly validated against human analysts. The full raw transcript always remains available for verification.
