Should You Buy Expand Energy Corp (EXE) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.
Conclusion
Buy
Latest Price
109.900
1 Day change
0.22%
52 Week Range
126.620
Analysis Updated At
2026/01/28
BUY for a beginner long-term investor even if you’re entering immediately. EXE’s trend is still constructive (positive MACD, RSI neutral-strong), Wall Street remains broadly Buy/Overweight with meaningful upside to targets, and recent natural-gas price strength is a near-term tailwind. The main drawback is hedge funds have been selling aggressively and price is approaching resistance near ~112, so upside may come with choppier swings—but on balance it’s a good buy right now for a long-term holder.
Technical Analysis
Price ~109.93 is above the pivot (106.44), indicating a bullish-to-neutral bias. MACD histogram is positive (1.059) but contracting, suggesting upside momentum is slowing (not reversing yet). RSI(6) ~59.6 is neutral-to-slightly-bullish (not overbought). Moving averages are converging, consistent with consolidation after a move up. Key levels: Support at ~106.44 then ~100.47; Resistance at ~112.41 then ~116.10. With price sitting below R1 (~112.41), near-term upside exists but may stall unless it breaks that level.
Options Data
Bullish
Open Interest Put-Call Ratio
Bullish
Option Volume Put-Call Ratio
Options positioning looks bullish on flow: put/call open interest ~0.94 is roughly balanced (slightly more calls), while put/call volume ~0.06 shows call volume dominating today (bullish speculation). Implied volatility is elevated (IV percentile ~89.6), implying the market is pricing in larger moves (often around commodity swings and/or earnings). Volume is also far above average (today vs 30D avg ~25x), reinforcing that sentiment is actively skewed toward upside participation.
Technical Summary
Sell
3
Buy
7
Positive Catalysts
- Natural gas fundamentals/news flow: recent sharp surge in U.S. natural gas futures and weather-driven tightness can lift cash flows and sentiment for gas-levered E&Ps.
- Analyst stance remains supportive: multiple firms maintain Buy/Overweight ratings and targets still sit well above the current price.
- Upcoming earnings event: QDEC 2025 earnings on 2026-02-26 (after hours) can be a catalyst if results/forward commentary confirm strong gas economics.
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
- Hedge fund activity is a clear headwind: selling increased ~103% over the last quarter, which can cap rallies or increase volatility.
- Analyst price targets have been drifting down recently (despite maintained Buy/Overweight), reflecting concerns like longer-dated oversupply risk and commodity uncertainty.
- Technical: momentum is positive but fading (MACD contracting) and price is nearing resistance (~112.4), raising the chance of a near-term pause/pullback.
Financial Performance
Latest reported quarter: 2025/Q3. Revenue rose to ~$2.516B (+319.33% YoY), showing strong top-line expansion. However, profitability weakened sharply: Net income ~$547M (-579.82% YoY) and EPS 2.28 (-368.24% YoY). Gross margin improved to ~37.76 (+335.52% YoY). Overall: strong revenue/gross margin trend but earnings volatility is high, suggesting either non-recurring items, cost/hedging impacts, or integration/commodity-driven swings—important for long-term holders to expect uneven quarters.
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Street view is broadly positive on rating (mostly Buy/Overweight), but price targets have been trimmed in January. Recent moves: Piper Sandler cut PT to 137 (Overweight), Barclays cut to 126 (Overweight), Stephens cut to 140 (Overweight), BofA cut to 125 (Buy), while Jefferies raised to 143 (Buy) and UBS remains Buy with a still-high PT (recently lowered to 150 from 154 after a prior big raise). Wall Street pros: leverage to improving LNG/natural gas demand and resilient cash-return models. Cons: commodity uncertainty near-term and perceived risk of gas oversupply later (e.g., 2027), which is pressuring targets even as ratings remain positive.
Wall Street analysts forecast EXE stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for EXE is 132.89 USD with a low forecast of 106 USD and a high forecast of 150 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
21 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast EXE stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for EXE is 132.89 USD with a low forecast of 106 USD and a high forecast of 150 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
19 Buy
2 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 109.660
Low
106
Averages
132.89
High
150
Current: 109.660
Low
106
Averages
132.89
High
150
Piper Sandler
Overweight
downgrade
$138 -> $137
AI Analysis
2026-01-28
New
Reason
Piper Sandler
Price Target
$138 -> $137
AI Analysis
2026-01-28
New
downgrade
Overweight
Reason
Piper Sandler lowered the firm's price target on Expand Energy to $137 from $138 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. Discussing the space, the firm says that for Q4, it anticipates strong prints from the gas equities, while WAHA pricing and weak oil and NGL prices were a headwind for oil names. Heading into FY26, the expectations are broadly for maintenance programs across Piper's oil coverage, while a number of gas producers are pushing for growth in response to increased LNG demand.
Barclays
Overweight
downgrade
$136 -> $126
2026-01-21
Reason
Barclays
Price Target
$136 -> $126
2026-01-21
downgrade
Overweight
Reason
Barclays lowered the firm's price target on Expand Energy to $126 from $136 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The firm adjusted ratings and targets in the exploration and production group as part of a Q4 preview. The upstream sector's cash return model "remains resilient" amid macro volatility, the analyst tells investors in a research note. Barclays see attractive opportunities in U.S. onshore. It tells investors to "tread carefully" through the near-term commodity uncertainty.
Unlock Full Analyst Thesis， Get the complete breakdown of rating reason for EXE
