Should You Buy Emerson Electric Co (EMR) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.
Conclusion
Hold
Latest Price
150.720
1 Day change
1.55%
52 Week Range
152.500
Analysis Updated At
2026/01/28
EMR is not a good buy right now for a beginner long-term investor who wants to deploy capital immediately. The stock is in a longer-term uptrend (bullish moving averages), but near-term momentum has started to weaken (negative, expanding MACD histogram) while multiple recent downgrades cite valuation being “fully reflected.” With earnings on 2026-02-03 (after hours) and the price sitting near the pivot (~148) with nearby resistance (~151), the risk/reward for buying today looks unfavorable versus simply holding off or maintaining an existing position.
Technical Analysis
Trend: Longer-term bullish structure remains intact (SMA_5 > SMA_20 > SMA_200), indicating an established uptrend.
Momentum: MACD histogram is negative (-0.0898) and negatively expanding, which signals weakening upside momentum and rising risk of a pullback/consolidation.
RSI: RSI_6 at 56.12 is neutral—no strong oversold/overbought edge.
Key levels: Pivot 148.033 (price is essentially sitting on it). Support S1 145.076 then S2 143.249. Resistance R1 150.989 then R2 152.816. A clean break above ~151 would improve the short-term setup; slipping below ~145 would worsen it.
Pattern-based odds: Similar-pattern stats imply slightly negative drift (-0.38% next day, -1.16% next week, -1.9% next month), aligning with the weakening MACD.
Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals
- [AI Stock Picker](module://ai_stock_pick): No signal on given stock today.
- [SwingMax](module://swingmax): No signal on given stock recently.
Options Data
Bullish
Open Interest Put-Call Ratio
Bullish
Option Volume Put-Call Ratio
Sentiment: Options positioning is notably call-skewed (OI put/call 0.52; volume put/call 0.11), which is bullish/optimistic.
Activity/volatility: Today’s option volume is extremely elevated versus the 30-day average (~340% of avg), suggesting heightened attention into the upcoming earnings window. Implied vol (30D ~29.61) is above historical vol (~26.51) and IV percentile is high (72.8), consistent with event premium ahead of earnings. Net: bullish tilt, but with elevated event-driven risk priced in.
Technical Summary
Sell
1
Buy
11
Positive Catalysts
1) Earnings catalyst: QDEC 2025 earnings on 2026-02-03 after hours (Street EPS est. 1.41). A beat/raise could push the stock through the ~151 resistance zone.
2) AI/industrial demand narrative: Barclays referenced firmer demand outlook amid AI order strength; UBS expects underlying demand strength and potential estimate revisions.
3) Supportive long-term bull case: UBS upgraded to Buy with $168 target; Evercore initiated Outperform with $170, highlighting cycle leverage and earnings momentum into FY26.
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
1) Valuation-driven downgrades: Oppenheimer downgraded to Perform; TD Cowen downgraded to Hold—both explicitly citing valuation and limited near-term upside.
2) Near-term momentum deterioration: Negative, expanding MACD while price sits near pivot and below first resistance (~151) increases odds of consolidation/pullback.
3) Earnings risk with elevated IV: Options imply an event premium; disappointment could trigger a fast move lower toward ~145 or ~143 supports.
4) Aspen/software headwinds and uncertainty: TD Cowen cited Aspen headwinds through 1H 2026 and uncertainty about a discrete momentum turn.
Financial Performance
Latest reported quarter: 2025/Q4. Revenue grew to $4.855B (+5.11% YoY), showing top-line resilience. However, profitability weakened materially: Net Income fell to $636M (-36.14% YoY) and EPS dropped to $1.12 (-35.63% YoY). Gross margin improved to 47.62% (+4.50% YoY), implying margin structure improved, but below-the-line items and/or costs/one-offs pressured earnings. Overall: mixed—good revenue and gross margin trend, but sharp EPS decline is a negative for near-term confidence heading into the next print.
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Recent trend: price targets have generally been nudged up by some firms (e.g., JPMorgan to $157; Wells Fargo/Barclays to $145), but the bigger story is multiple rating downgrades to neutral/hold based on valuation (Oppenheimer to Perform; TD Cowen to Hold; Jefferies earlier to Hold). Counterbalance: UBS upgraded to Buy with a higher $168 target and Evercore initiated Outperform at $170.
Wall Street pros: (a) potential upside from underlying orders/demand and estimate revisions (UBS), (b) industrial cycle/AI-related demand tailwinds (Barclays/Evercore), (c) longer-term earnings growth potential.
Wall Street cons: (a) valuation seen as “caught up” to growth (Oppenheimer/TD), (b) near-term headwinds (Aspen/software) and uncertainty in discrete momentum, (c) limited near-term upside versus targets for several neutral/hold shops.
Influential/political trading: No recent congress trading data available; hedge funds and insiders are neutral with no notable recent trend.
Wall Street analysts forecast EMR stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for EMR is 150.46 USD with a low forecast of 125 USD and a high forecast of 170 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
14 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast EMR stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for EMR is 150.46 USD with a low forecast of 125 USD and a high forecast of 170 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
7 Buy
6 Hold
1 Sell
Moderate Buy
Current: 148.420
Low
125
Averages
150.46
High
170
Current: 148.420
Low
125
Averages
150.46
High
170
Oppenheimer
Christopher Glynn
Outperform -> Perform
downgrade
AI Analysis
2026-01-27
New
Reason
Oppenheimer
Christopher Glynn
Price Target
AI Analysis
2026-01-27
New
downgrade
Outperform -> Perform
Reason
Oppenheimer analyst Christopher Glynn downgraded Emerson to Perform from Outperform without a price target. The firm shuffled ratings in the industrials group. It cites valuation for the downgrade of Emerson. The company's growth prospects are now reflected in the stock's valuation, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
JPMorgan
Stephen Tusa
Neutral
maintain
$150 -> $157
2026-01-16
Reason
JPMorgan
Stephen Tusa
Price Target
$150 -> $157
2026-01-16
maintain
Neutral
Reason
JPMorgan analyst Stephen Tusa raised the firm's price target on Emerson to $157 from $150 and keeps a Neutral rating on the shares. The firm adjusted ratings and targets in the electrical equipment and multi-industry group as part of its Q4 earnings preview. JPMorgan is more positive on "growth related names into and out of the quarter."
Unlock Full Analyst Thesis， Get the complete breakdown of rating reason for EMR
