Should You Buy Eastman Chemical Co (EMN) Today? Analysis, Price Targets, and 2026 Outlook.
Conclusion
Hold
Latest Price
68.990
1 Day change
-0.06%
52 Week Range
103.820
Analysis Updated At
2026/01/28
EMN is not a good buy right now for a beginner long-term investor who wants to deploy capital immediately. The stock is trading around ~$69 (near the ~$70 ‘fair value’ area implied by multiple recent targets), momentum is deteriorating (bearish MACD), fundamentals in the latest reported quarter (2025/Q3) weakened sharply YoY, and the next earnings (QDEC 2025, after-hours today) is a near-term event risk that can easily reprice the stock. If you already own it, holding is reasonable; if you don’t, this setup is not attractive enough to buy today.
Technical Analysis
Price/levels: EMN is hovering near pivot ~68.16 with resistance at ~70.08 then ~71.27, and support at ~66.24 then ~65.05. It’s close to resistance, limiting near-term upside unless it cleanly breaks above ~70–71.
Trend/momentum: MACD histogram is negative (-0.0897) and expanding lower, signaling weakening momentum. RSI(6) ~58.8 is neutral (not oversold), so there is no ‘forced bounce’ setup.
Moving averages: converging MAs suggest consolidation rather than a clear uptrend.
Pattern-based odds: the provided pattern stats imply weak short-term forward returns (next week -7.38%, next month -6.55%), which argues against buying immediately.
Intellectia Proprietary Trading Signals
- [AI Stock Picker](module://ai_stock_pick): No signal on given stock today.
- [SwingMax](module://swingmax): No signal on given stock today.
Options Data
Bullish
Open Interest Put-Call Ratio
Bullish
Option Volume Put-Call Ratio
Sentiment: Both put-call ratios are below 1, indicating call-heavy positioning (generally bullish/less hedging demand).
Volatility/pricing: 30D IV ~41.49 vs historical vol ~38.01, with IV percentile ~82.8 (options are expensive relative to the past year’s range). That often occurs into catalysts (like earnings) and implies the market expects a meaningful move.
Liquidity/activity: Today’s volume (708) is below the 5D average (~1110) but near the 10D average (~712). Open interest is sizable (calls 23,668 vs puts 11,869), aligning with the call-skewed sentiment.
Technical Summary
Sell
5
Buy
6
Positive Catalysts
Hedge funds are reported as net buyers (buying amount +626% QoQ), suggesting some institutional accumulation. Options positioning is call-leaning (put-call ratios < 1). Potential macro catalysts cited by analysts for the sector include eventual PMI improvement, rate cuts, and possible capacity rationalization in China. Upcoming earnings (QDEC 2025 after-hours today) could be a positive catalyst if results/guide surprise upward.
Neutral/Negative Catalysts
Technical momentum is weakening (bearish, expanding negative MACD). Latest reported fundamentals (2025/Q3) were sharply down YoY. No recent supportive news flow in the past week. Near-term earnings today creates binary downside risk at current levels.
Financial Performance
Latest reported quarter: 2025/Q3.
Growth trends: Revenue fell to $2.202B (-10.63% YoY). Net income dropped to $47M (-73.89% YoY). EPS fell to $0.41 (-73.20% YoY). Gross margin declined to 19.75% (-19.55% YoY). Overall, this shows a clear earnings and margin compression trend, consistent with a cyclical downturn rather than an improving growth profile right now.
Growth
Profitability
Efficiency
Analyst Ratings and Price Target Trends
Recent trend: Ratings and price targets have drifted lower and become more cautious. RBC downgraded to Sector Perform (PT cut to $70 from $74). Wells Fargo downgraded to Equal Weight (PT $70). Several others maintained Buy/Overweight ratings but trimmed targets to the low-to-mid $70s (e.g., KeyBanc $74, BofA $74, UBS $73, Citi $72). Overall, Wall Street’s center of gravity is ‘fairly valued around ~$70–$74’ with limited near-term upside.
Pros view: Solid free cash flow through the trough, potential 2026 tailwinds from cost savings/utilization ramp, and eventual macro/industry catalysts.
Cons view: Persistent weak end-demand (durables/construction), oversupply/capacity pressures (notably China), limited organic growth opportunities, and catalysts likely “quarters away.”
Influential/political trading: No recent congress trading data available; insiders are neutral (no significant recent trend).
Wall Street analysts forecast EMN stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for EMN is 72 USD with a low forecast of 68 USD and a high forecast of 74 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
9 Analyst Rating
Wall Street analysts forecast EMN stock price to rise over the next 12 months. According to Wall Street analysts, the average 1-year price target for EMN is 72 USD with a low forecast of 68 USD and a high forecast of 74 USD. However, analyst price targets are subjective and often lag stock prices, so investors should focus on the objective reasons behind analyst rating changes, which better reflect the company's fundamentals.
7 Buy
2 Hold
0 Sell
Strong Buy
Current: 69.030
Low
68
Averages
72
High
74
Current: 69.030
Low
68
Averages
72
High
74
RBC Capital
Arun Viswanathan
Outperform -> Sector Perform
downgrade
$74 -> $70
AI Analysis
2026-01-16
Reason
RBC Capital
Arun Viswanathan
Price Target
$74 -> $70
AI Analysis
2026-01-16
downgrade
Outperform -> Sector Perform
Reason
RBC Capital analyst Arun Viswanathan downgraded Eastman Chemical to Sector Perform from Outperform with a price target of $70, down from $74. The firm cites continued weak demand for durables and sustainable products for the downgrade. With limited organic growth opportunities, Eastman shares look fairly valued, the analyst tells investors in a research note.
KeyBanc
Overweight
downgrade
$76 -> $74
2026-01-09
Reason
KeyBanc
Price Target
$76 -> $74
2026-01-09
downgrade
Overweight
Reason
KeyBanc lowered the firm's price target on Eastman Chemical to $74 from $76 and keeps an Overweight rating on the shares. The industry remains locked in the same struggle with cyclical downturn in construction/durables demand; unabating commodity capacity overhang enabled by China's advantage in capex and cost of capital; and chemical industry's customers losing share as the West, especially Europe, deindustrializes. Over the next one to two years, the firm sees optionality for improvement in demand, but other structural issues are likely to take longer to resolve.
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