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The earnings call highlights strong financial performance, including increased free cash flow and reduced labor costs. The company is expanding capacity and sees significant growth potential in inpatient rehabilitation services. Positive trends in managed care volume and strategic initiatives like the Palantir partnership further bolster sentiment. Despite some uncertainties in Medicare Advantage dynamics, the overall outlook remains optimistic, with solid guidance and strategic expansions. The Q&A section reinforces confidence with detailed responses and plans to address challenges. Consequently, a positive stock price movement is expected over the next two weeks.
2025 Revenue Increased 10.5%, driven by 6% discharge growth and pricing growth benefiting from patient mix and patient outcome quality.
2025 EBITDA Grew 14.9% due to operating leverage and disciplined expense management. Premium labor spend declined by more than $21 million from 2024, even as capacity and patient numbers increased.
Q4 Revenue Increased 9.9% to $1.5 billion, driven by 5.3% discharge growth and a 4.1% increase in net revenue per discharge. Net revenue per discharge benefited from a $2.7 million settlement with a managed care payer related to prior year claims.
Q4 Adjusted EBITDA Increased 15.9% to $335.6 million, supported by reduced premium labor costs and faster Medicare certifications for new hospitals.
2025 Free Cash Flow Increased 18.5% to $818 million, driven by strong cash flow generation, funding capital expenditures, share repurchases, and dividends while maintaining flat long-term debt.
Premium Labor Costs (Q4) Declined $5.8 million from Q4 2024 to $23.8 million, the lowest since Q1 2021. Contract labor FTEs as a percent of total FTEs was 1.1%, also the lowest since Q1 2021.
ERP System Conversion: In October, the company converted its enterprise resource planning system to Oracle Fusion, providing a flexible and sustainable cloud-based IT infrastructure to support business growth.
Strategic Relationship with Palantir: The company extended and expanded its agreement with Palantir, focusing on streamlining admission documentation and enhancing responses to claims denials.
Capacity Expansion: In 2025, the company added 517 beds, including 390 via 8 new hospitals and 127 through additions to existing hospitals. Plans to introduce small-format hospitals in 2027 to facilitate a hub-and-spoke strategy in larger markets.
Revenue and EBITDA Growth: 2025 revenue increased by 10.5%, driven by 6% discharge growth and pricing improvements. EBITDA grew by 14.9% due to operating leverage and disciplined expense management.
Labor Cost Management: Premium labor spend declined by over $21 million from 2024, with contract labor FTEs at their lowest since Q1 2021.
Free Cash Flow: 2025 adjusted free cash flow increased by 18.5% to $818 million, enabling significant investments in operations, share repurchases, and dividends.
Regulatory Preparedness: Prepared for regulatory changes like RCD expansion and TEAM model implementation, leveraging experience and ensuring compliance to minimize risks.
Hub-and-Spoke Strategy: Plans to implement a hub-and-spoke strategy with small-format hospitals starting in 2027 to address growing demand and demographic trends.
Regulatory Developments: Market anxiety regarding IRF industry regulatory changes, including the extension of RCD and the initiation of the TEAM model, could impact reimbursement criteria and patient flows. Although the company has prepared extensively, these changes pose potential risks to operations and financials.
Reimbursement Criteria: The expansion of RCD into Texas and California introduces risks related to the consistent application of reimbursement criteria by different MACs, which could affect revenue and claims affirmation rates.
TEAM Model Implementation: The TEAM model, an episodic payment pilot, could impact patient flows and financial outcomes in the 89 hospitals in initial markets, despite no downside risk in 2026 under the default track.
Labor Costs: Although premium labor costs have declined, labor cost management remains a challenge, especially in maintaining low contract labor FTEs and managing benefit expenses.
Economic Uncertainties: Economic uncertainties could impact the company's financial performance, particularly in maintaining revenue growth and managing bad debt expenses.
2026 Net Operating Revenue: Guidance includes net operating revenue of $6.365 billion to $6.465 billion.
2026 Adjusted EBITDA: Guidance includes adjusted EBITDA of $1.34 billion to $1.38 billion.
2026 Adjusted Earnings Per Share: Guidance includes adjusted earnings per share of $5.81 to $6.10.
Capacity Expansion Plans: The company plans to continue investing in capacity additions, including the introduction of small-format hospitals beginning in 2027 to facilitate a hub and spoke strategy in larger and growing markets.
Regulatory Preparedness: The company is prepared for the expansion of Review Choice Demonstration (RCD) into Texas and California in 2026 and has extensively prepared for the TEAM model implementation, which began on January 1, 2026.
Strategic Relationship with Palantir: The company has extended and expanded its agreement with Palantir, focusing on initiatives to streamline admission documentation and enhance responses to claims denials, with expected benefits in 2026 and beyond.
Cash Dividends: In 2025, the company returned in excess of $70 million in cash dividends.
Share Repurchases: In 2025, the company allocated $158 million to share repurchases.
The earnings call highlights strong financial performance, including increased free cash flow and reduced labor costs. The company is expanding capacity and sees significant growth potential in inpatient rehabilitation services. Positive trends in managed care volume and strategic initiatives like the Palantir partnership further bolster sentiment. Despite some uncertainties in Medicare Advantage dynamics, the overall outlook remains optimistic, with solid guidance and strategic expansions. The Q&A section reinforces confidence with detailed responses and plans to address challenges. Consequently, a positive stock price movement is expected over the next two weeks.
The earnings call summary and Q&A indicate positive sentiment: strong financial metrics, optimistic guidance, and strategic expansion plans. Despite a decrease in adjusted free cash flow, year-to-date growth is robust. The focus on bed expansion and reduced premium labor costs are favorable. However, management's lack of clarity on certain issues and the absence of a market cap metric slightly temper the outlook. Overall, the strategic initiatives and positive guidance suggest a stock price increase of 2% to 8% over the next two weeks.
The earnings call summary and Q&A session indicate positive financial metrics, such as raised guidance for revenue, EBITDA, and EPS for 2025, and strong free cash flow expectations. The company is expanding capacity with new projects and partnerships, and AI is enhancing operations. While there are concerns about management's clarity on certain issues, the overall sentiment is positive, especially with raised guidance and expansion plans. The market strategy and shareholder return plans are also favorable, suggesting a positive stock price movement.
The earnings call indicates strong financial performance with a 10.6% revenue increase and a 14.9% rise in adjusted EBITDA. Share repurchases and dividends further bolster shareholder confidence. The Q&A revealed management's proactive approach to potential risks like benefit expenses and supply costs, without significant concerns. Despite some uncertainties in future costs and trends, the optimistic guidance and strategic expansion plans, such as increased partnerships, suggest a positive outlook for stock price movement.
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